000
WOPZ41 KNHC 230421
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
925 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM PDT...0500Z...INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.
FORECASTER STEWART
Watch out Atlatnic she's coming for you!!!
Another depression forms over the Eastern Pacific
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 230443
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005
0500Z FRI SEP 23 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.9W AT 23/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.9W AT 23/0500Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 108.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ24 KNHC 230443
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005
0500Z FRI SEP 23 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.9W AT 23/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.9W AT 23/0500Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 108.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230503
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A
LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS
USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A
23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED
WIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND
DATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS
SINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED
OUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
THERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15
KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE
INCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE
DECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER
24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK
IN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...
IF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE
COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT
$$
WTPZ44 KNHC 230503
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A
LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS
USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A
23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED
WIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND
DATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS
SINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED
OUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
THERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15
KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE
INCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE
DECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER
24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK
IN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...
IF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE
COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT
$$
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