Classic Texas Dry Air

[f5]

some of that crunchy dry air over texas should dry some of this monster's steam.right now dewpoint range from the upper 30s in far west texas low to mid 50s in the panhandle and upper 50s to low 60s from the I-35 corridor east.the only hurricane dewpoints i can find are within 50 miles of the coast mid tp upper 70s.

[NFLnut]

I was noticing that a coupla hours ago:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75341

Although very little has been sucked in as of yet, it could start to chip away if it loops into the core of the storm over the next few hours. Add to that the fact that a significant portion of the feeders are now/soon will be over land and the time for reintensification that the "Cat5 Bandwagonners" are so certain about is soon to be over!

[djtil]

dry air + cooler waters + some shear = cat 2 or 3 at landfall.....awesome news.


ps....im LOOOOOOOONG on the stock market tomorrow.

[wxmann_91]

Short-term rainfall deficits and long-term drought over much of TX ain't gonna help Rita either.

Let's hope this trend continues.

[f5]

we need the rain but we sure don't need an Allision to make up for those deficits.We also don't need a Katrina

[Jevo]

dry air + cooler waters + some shear = cat 2 or 3 at landfall.....awesome news.


ps....im LOOOOOOOONG on the stock market tomorrow.

minimal dry air intruding into the CDO.... minimal shear 10knts at most and speed increase over cooler shelf water.... cat 4 as the NHC has forecasted

[wxmann_91]

Short-term rainfall deficits and long-term drought over much of TX ain't gonna help Rita either.

Let's hope this trend continues.

I'm sorry I think I need to clarify. The drought and deficits over TX will hamper Rita even more b/c the air is ever drier than it would've been had the ground been moist.

[djtil]

cat 4 as the NHC has forecasted

lol...recon shows nothing near cat 4.......the nhc can responsibly call this a cat 4 all it wants...reality says its a cat 3 right now.

[SamSagnella]

minimal dry air intruding into the CDO.... minimal shear 10knts at most and speed increase over cooler shelf water.... cat 4 as the NHC has forecasted

This is vital; any increase in speed drastically decreases the required depth of high TCHC water. Since the hurricane will be traversing a warm eddy in the next day, this will likely provide an environment conducive for additional slight restrengthening. The big IF is still the possible dry air entrainment, but so far Rita's held it off like a champ, so I'm definitely thinking that it'll be a mid-upper category 4 at landfall.

[wxmann_91]

This is vital; any increase in speed drastically decreases the required depth of high TCHC water. Since the hurricane will be traversing a warm eddy in the next day, this will likely provide an environment conducive for additional slight restrengthening. The big IF is still the possible dry air entrainment, but so far Rita's held it off like a champ, so I'm definitely thinking that it'll be a mid-upper category 4 at landfall.

After the eclipse is over we'll see who is the champ.

I don't think it will be the hurricane, it looks sickly already, and if anything in the morning the visibles will show a dehydrated hurricane. Major is likely at landfall, but not a 4, though it is still possible.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Who the h*ll cares what cat it comes in as it really doesn't matter, the damage has already been done! It spent about a day with pressure dropping and about 10 or so hours as a cat 5! The Storm Surge is going to be huge same as if not more then Katrina's! So really who cares what cat it comes in as its still going to be a huge problem that the people of TX and LA does not need!

[Viper252]

I still think it will bomb out to a 5 when it goes over the warm eddy, then weaken back down to a 4.

[wxmann_91]

Who the h*ll cares what cat it comes in as it really doesn't matter, the damage has already been done! It spent about a day with pressure dropping and about 10 or so hours as a cat 5! The Storm Surge is going to be huge same as if not more then Katrina's! So really who cares what cat it comes in as its still going to be a huge problem that the people of TX and LA does not need!

OK now chill. I and many posters here were just posting our own observations. The storm surge hopefully won't be as high since by the time it makes landfall it would already be a full 36 hrs after being a Cat 5, and the N TX and W LA coastline is less prone to surge than the NOLA/MGC areas. However, wave action and beach erosion will still be quite a problem.

[oneness]

Seems to me this storm has seen the dry air receding before it.

If the high ridge recedes as forecast, won't most of the dry air recede before it still?

Isn't this what is going to allow this storm through to the NNW and finally N?

Won’t Rita's core continue to essentially brew in her own moist soup until the eye makes landfall?

I see people hoping for the best, I just hope they are also prepared for the worst.

[Viper252]

Remember its possible it could Bomb out right before it hits land as well. I wouldnt be shocked If it got up to Camille proportions at that time.

[deltadog03]

she is fighting really hard right now.....she has pushed out A LOT of that dry air...cdo is looking better

[ROCK]

Who the h*ll cares what cat it comes in as it really doesn't matter, the damage has already been done! It spent about a day with pressure dropping and about 10 or so hours as a cat 5! The Storm Surge is going to be huge same as if not more then Katrina's! So really who cares what cat it comes in as its still going to be a huge problem that the people of TX and LA does not need!

OK now chill. I and many posters here were just posting our own observations. The storm surge hopefully won't be as high since by the time it makes landfall it would already be a full 36 hrs after being a Cat 5, and the N TX and W LA coastline is less prone to surge than the NOLA/MGC areas. However, wave action and beach erosion will still be quite a problem.

THANK YOU..... IM SITTING IN MY HOUSE WITH INLAWS IN PEARLAND .....TRYING TO KEEP EVERYBODY CALM OVER HERE...ITS 4AM AND THEY ARE FREAKING OUT. 18 HOURS ON THE RODE WE TURNED BACK TO HOME......LETS BE SENSTITIVE...DAMMM.....I DONT NEED SPECULATION , -removed- I NEED RELIABLE NEWS.........

[BReb]

The hurricane is REALLY struggling. Check out the water vapor loops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

As soon as her northern-most band hit dry land it's like the whole hurricane was electrocuted- shear wouldn't be that uniform throughout the whole storm at once, so it has to be dry air entrainment. It looks like she's drying out, and she has just now started to touch Texas land with her outer bands. I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing collapse dramatically.

[abajan]

I still think it will bomb out to a 5 when it goes over the warm eddy, then weaken back down to a 4.

IMO, Rita's Cat 5 days are over. It may get back up to 150 mph (155 tops). Coupled with an expected increase in shear, that eddy simply isn't significant enough to support re-intensification to Cat 5.

I'm figuring about 135 mph at landfall.

[BReb]

"I'm figuring about 135 mph at landfall."

I'm figuring about 115 mph. I'd be shocked if there's any additional strengthening at all- whereas previously Rita's northern feeder bands were over warm, moist waters now they are over bone-dry Texas and Louisiana land. And because of the geography of the area and Rita's approach angle, she's going to have to have a large percentage of herself over land before her eye hits land.

Add in cooler waters and shear and you've got a prescription for a rapidly declining hurricane.