Rita Recon Reports

[bigmoney755]

what does it mean when the eye fills in?

[oneness]

[Derek Ortt]

new vortex just came in

pressure continues to rise, now 924mb and NE quad winds on the outbound leg are 130KT. using an 80% reduction, whcikh appears to be appropriate for this storm, 105KT seems like a good guess at the initial intensity

[artist]

Derek - think it will continue?

[wxmann_91]

Derek - do you think it went thru ERC? and if so will it start to get stronger later?


Didn't Katrina do this as well at one time?


I hope it is a trend fo r the good, believe me. just scared of surprises though!

Well, since he is not here, I think I can answer this question for him.(EDIT: Never mind, he is still here. )

It seems that Rita was just completing an ERC (it's outer eyewall was contracting), when dry air got to its western side. So, though it was going to restrengthen, the dry air got to it first, and now I believe it's down to a Cat 3 for sure. On the other hand, this could be a bad trend, I have seen many GOM storms before and it seems right as they make landfall, they try to fight off the shear/dry air, and they try to reinvigorate themselves just as they make landfall. This could indeed happen again here, but earlier, so perhaps it could restrengthen as it is making landfall, so I'm still sticking with a Major at landfall.

what does it mean when the eye fills in?

That it's weakening.

[Windy]

927
SXXX50 KNHC 230620
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 52 KNHC
0609. 2643N 09022W 03049 5251 139 118 100 100 120 02833 0000000000
0610 2644N 09020W 03049 5231 139 115 100 100 117 02853 0000000000
0610. 2646N 09019W 03047 5211 138 110 116 106 111 02871 0000000000
0611 2647N 09018W 03046 5195 137 108 108 104 109 02886 0000000000
0611. 2648N 09017W 03050 5180 138 105 104 104 105 02905 0000000000
0612 2649N 09015W 03047 5167 138 103 106 106 104 02915 0000000000
0612. 2650N 09014W 03052 5154 136 101 094 094 102 02933 0000000000
0613 2652N 09013W 03041 5143 139 100 100 100 101 02933 0000000000
0613. 2653N 09012W 03050 5129 137 098 110 096 099 02955 0000000000
0614 2654N 09010W 03048 5120 137 096 110 094 096 02963 0000000000
0614. 2655N 09009W 03048 5110 139 095 110 102 096 02973 0000000000
0615 2656N 09008W 03048 5102 137 092 112 104 093 02981 0000000000
0615. 2658N 09006W 03047 5094 137 090 110 100 091 02989 0000000000
0616 2659N 09005W 03050 5087 136 088 106 106 089 02998 0000000000
0616. 2700N 09004W 03046 5080 135 087 104 104 087 03002 0000000000
0617 2701N 09003W 03047 5073 134 087 106 106 087 03010 0000000000
0617. 2702N 09001W 03049 5068 135 087 106 106 087 03016 0000000000
0618 2704N 09000W 03050 5067 142 085 100 100 086 03018 0000000000
0618. 2705N 08959W 03042 5065 141 088 090 090 090 03013 0000000000
0619 2706N 08957W 03051 5059 141 085 090 090 087 03027 0000000000

[artist]

thanks wxmann! what i was afraid of.

[Windy]

074
SXXX50 KNHC 230630
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 53 KNHC
0619. 2707N 08956W 03048 5053 140 084 098 098 086 03030 0000000000
0620 2709N 08955W 03049 5047 142 083 098 098 087 03037 0000000000
0620. 2710N 08953W 03047 5042 141 092 096 096 095 03040 0000000000
0621 2711N 08952W 03050 5037 139 095 088 088 095 03048 0000000000
0621. 2712N 08951W 03043 5034 134 099 084 084 100 03044 0000000000
0622 2714N 08949W 03053 5031 134 093 080 080 097 03057 0000000000
0622. 2715N 08948W 03045 5025 131 087 076 076 087 03054 0000000000
0623 2716N 08947W 03048 5021 130 094 074 074 096 03063 0000000000
0623. 2717N 08946W 03054 5016 132 095 078 078 096 03074 0000000000
0624 2718N 08945W 03041 5014 135 091 082 082 093 03062 0000000000
0624. 2719N 08943W 03049 5009 137 091 088 088 091 03075 0000000000
0625 2721N 08942W 03048 5005 139 090 090 090 090 03079 0000000000
0625. 2722N 08941W 03046 5001 137 090 090 090 091 03080 0000000000
0626 2723N 08940W 03120 0008 137 088 088 088 089 03164 0000000000
0626. 2725N 08938W 03358 0036 140 085 082 082 088 03430 0000000000
0627 2726N 08937W 03616 0063 143 078 072 072 080 03715 0000000000
0627. 2728N 08936W 03857 0085 145 075 062 062 076 03979 0000000000
0628 2729N 08935W 04121 0102 141 072 040 040 072 04267 0000000000
0628. 2730N 08933W 04400 0099 139 074 016 016 075 04571 0000000000
0629 2732N 08932W 04688 0125 133 071 002 002 072 04886 0000000000

[Wishful Hurricane Hunter]

I was curious how often the aircraft data is updated??

[Wishful Hurricane Hunter]

Sorry, i meant to ask how often the VORTEX data was updated?

Thanks

[superfly]

927
SXXX50 KNHC 230620
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 52 KNHC
0609. 2643N 09022W 03049 5251 139 118 100 100 120 02833 0000000000
0610 2644N 09020W 03049 5231 139 115 100 100 117 02853 0000000000
0610. 2646N 09019W 03047 5211 138 110 116 106 111 02871 0000000000
0611 2647N 09018W 03046 5195 137 108 108 104 109 02886 0000000000
0611. 2648N 09017W 03050 5180 138 105 104 104 105 02905 0000000000
0612 2649N 09015W 03047 5167 138 103 106 106 104 02915 0000000000
0612. 2650N 09014W 03052 5154 136 101 094 094 102 02933 0000000000
0613 2652N 09013W 03041 5143 139 100 100 100 101 02933 0000000000
0613. 2653N 09012W 03050 5129 137 098 110 096 099 02955 0000000000
0614 2654N 09010W 03048 5120 137 096 110 094 096 02963 0000000000
0614. 2655N 09009W 03048 5110 139 095 110 102 096 02973 0000000000
0615 2656N 09008W 03048 5102 137 092 112 104 093 02981 0000000000
0615. 2658N 09006W 03047 5094 137 090 110 100 091 02989 0000000000
0616 2659N 09005W 03050 5087 136 088 106 106 089 02998 0000000000
0616. 2700N 09004W 03046 5080 135 087 104 104 087 03002 0000000000
0617 2701N 09003W 03047 5073 134 087 106 106 087 03010 0000000000
0617. 2702N 09001W 03049 5068 135 087 106 106 087 03016 0000000000
0618 2704N 09000W 03050 5067 142 085 100 100 086 03018 0000000000
0618. 2705N 08959W 03042 5065 141 088 090 090 090 03013 0000000000
0619 2706N 08957W 03051 5059 141 085 090 090 087 03027 0000000000
0619. 2707N 08956W 03048 5053 140 084 098 098 086 03030 0000000000
0620 2709N 08955W 03049 5047 142 083 098 098 087 03037 0000000000
0620. 2710N 08953W 03047 5042 141 092 096 096 095 03040 0000000000
0621 2711N 08952W 03050 5037 139 095 088 088 095 03048 0000000000
0621. 2712N 08951W 03043 5034 134 099 084 084 100 03044 0000000000
0622 2714N 08949W 03053 5031 134 093 080 080 097 03057 0000000000
0622. 2715N 08948W 03045 5025 131 087 076 076 087 03054 0000000000
0623 2716N 08947W 03048 5021 130 094 074 074 096 03063 0000000000
0623. 2717N 08946W 03054 5016 132 095 078 078 096 03074 0000000000
0624 2718N 08945W 03041 5014 135 091 082 082 093 03062 0000000000
0624. 2719N 08943W 03049 5009 137 091 088 088 091 03075 0000000000
0625 2721N 08942W 03048 5005 139 090 090 090 090 03079 0000000000
0625. 2722N 08941W 03046 5001 137 090 090 090 091 03080 0000000000
0626 2723N 08940W 03120 0008 137 088 088 088 089 03164 0000000000

Still looks like there are two wind maximas

[bigmoney755]

recon did not report it...how can you tell?

[superfly]

000
URNT12 KNHC 230618
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/06:02:10Z
B. 26 deg 28 min N
090 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2441 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 217 deg 113 kt
G. 134 deg 022 nm
H. 924 mb
I. 14 C/ 3043 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 03:31:30 Z
FL TEMP 18 C, 131 / 12NM
EYEWALL THIN E-SW

Sickly system right now, only 3 C difference between eye and outside.

[Windy]

037
SXXX50 KNHC 230641
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 54 KNHC
0629. 2733N 08931W 04959 0162 132 069 011 011 070 05194 0000000000
0630 2735N 08929W 05205 0181 131 070 019 019 071 05459 0000000000
0630. 2736N 08928W 05306 0191 136 068 025 025 071 05570 0000000000
0631 2738N 08927W 05311 0197 140 065 021 021 066 05582 0000000000
0631. 2740N 08925W 05309 0204 139 063 025 025 063 05587 0000000000
0632 2742N 08923W 05304 0211 138 062 021 021 062 05589 0000000000
0632. 2744N 08921W 05308 0215 139 062 023 029 066 05596 0000000000
0633 2746N 08920W 05306 0218 136 067 029 047 068 05598 0000000000
0633. 2748N 08918W 05305 0221 142 067 025 059 067 05600 0000000000
0634. 2752N 08915W 05603 0249 144 070 033 149 070 05926 0000000000
0635 2754N 08913W 05718 0258 146 070 041 185 071 06051 0000000000
0635. 2756N 08912W 05815 0269 145 067 049 199 069 06159 0000000000
0636 2757N 08910W 05946 0283 144 064 059 179 065 06304 0000000000
0636. 2759N 08909W 06143 0300 142 061 069 171 063 06519 0000000000
0637 2801N 08908W 06305 0307 140 061 083 165 061 06689 0000000000
0637. 2803N 08907W 06371 0318 143 061 085 117 061 06762 0000000000
0638 2804N 08905W 06465 0329 144 059 087 125 060 06866 0000000000
0638. 2806N 08904W 06594 0341 140 056 097 153 057 07008 0000000000
0639 2808N 08903W 06689 0349 137 053 101 137 055 07111 0000000000
0639. 2809N 08902W 06777 0358 135 051 105 115 051 07208 0000000000

[superfly]

recon did not report it...how can you tell?

Just read the flight level wind reports. First maxima at 120kts, goes down to 86kts, back up to second maxima at 100kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My 110 mph forecast is looking very good right now. That could be high!

[Windy]

Interesting -- another ERC so soon? If so, that'd be great news, as I would think that'd knock her on her heels, intensity-wise.

[Windy]

658
SXXX50 KNHC 230651
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 55 KNHC
0640 2811N 08901W 06811 0364 139 054 101 117 055 07249 0000000000
0640. 2812N 08900W 06905 0373 135 054 107 107 054 07352 0000000000
0641 2814N 08858W 06944 0377 139 054 115 115 055 07395 0000000000
0641. 2816N 08857W 07007 0384 139 054 117 121 055 07465 0000000000
0642 2817N 08856W 07038 0389 144 052 115 121 053 07502 0000000000
0642. 2819N 08855W 07071 0392 147 053 121 125 055 07537 0000000000
0643 2821N 08853W 07057 0393 147 052 125 125 053 07524 0000000000
0643. 2823N 08852W 07026 0392 147 053 121 121 057 07492 0000000000
0644 2824N 08851W 07011 0393 149 051 119 119 051 07477 0000000000
0644. 2826N 08849W 07010 0393 151 054 119 119 056 07477 0000000000
0645 2828N 08848W 07013 0395 152 055 121 123 056 07483 0000000000
0645. 2831N 08846W 07016 0398 151 055 121 121 056 07488 0000000000
0646 2833N 08845W 07013 0401 152 051 121 121 054 07488 0000000000
0646. 2835N 08843W 07012 0404 153 051 121 121 052 07491 0000000000
0647 2837N 08841W 07011 0409 145 051 121 121 052 07494 0000000000
0647. 2840N 08840W 07013 0412 138 049 121 121 050 07499 0000000000
0648 2842N 08838W 07009 0414 148 043 125 125 044 07496 0000000000
0648. 2844N 08836W 07012 0414 151 039 125 125 041 07499 0000000000
0649 2847N 08834W 07014 0417 146 036 127 127 037 07505 0000000000
0649. 2849N 08833W 07009 0420 138 037 127 127 038 07502 0000000000

[wxmann_91]

My 110 mph forecast is looking very good right now. That could be high!

You know Matt...you may be right this time...sorry for doubting you before.

[Wishful Hurricane Hunter]

This is a dumb question, but now that I have grasped the concept of reading the dropsonde messages, why is it the winds are decreasing in the last 2?? Are they flying in a different part of the storm? (close to the eye?)