Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

calculatedrisk · #681 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:43 am

The GFDL model 0Z SEP 23 has shifted further south. They are now forecasting what looks like a direct hit on Galveston Island (29.1N, 94.7W).

And then a stall over Texas.

f5 · #682 Postby f5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:45 am

it looks to be weakening which is great news for the Houston area

oneness · #683 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:49 am

Note, the 'filled-in-eye' effect appears to be a callibration difference between GEOS 10 images compared to the GEOS 12 images. (GEOS 10 images are displaying far more blue in the water vapor loop and also whites, hence the filled in eye)

audioslave8 · #684 Postby **audioslave8** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:51 am

yep!!! this is great news she wont be as bad as Katrina maybe not even as bad as Hugo now i predicted a landfall pressure between 920 and 932 mbs im thinking maybe 935 to 940 now

#685 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:10 am

It looks like the models shifted just south of Galveston so that is worse news they may end up getting the north east quad anyway

superfly · #686 Postby **superfly** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:11 am

GOES-12 eclipse over. Eye a lot larger now with ERC completing.

artist · #687 Postby **artist** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:14 am

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

actually looks better than I thought she would! :eek:

oneness · #688 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:18 am

Final IR into black out:

After Blackout - looks like the same ERC is still progressing.

PTrackerLA · #689 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:46 am

Rita is looking a little ragged. Thank goodness she might just be a 3 instead of 4 or 5 at landfall.

#690 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:49 am

just so you know, it seems that Rita is moving a great deal more water than Katrina did. For 2 nights now, Madiera beach( 2 miles north of my current position), has experienced overwash during high tide. That may not seem unusual except for the fact that we didn't have any flooding from Katrina. If this storm is that far away from me and I'm seeing surge-type flooding, I absolutely would not want to be anywhere near where this beast is heading!!!!

f5 · #691 Postby f5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:55 am

it looks like an upside down comma head well anyways the more it weakens the better for the Houston/Galveston area

oneness · #692 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:27 am

The inner eye-wall has now decoupled and decentralised from the outer eye-wall's rotation. This is the same situation developing in Rita which occurred in Katrina.

i.e. the inner eye-wall cloud band visibly spun wildly off-center and was then rapidly resumed into the outer eye-wall, opening a wide eye and initiating intensification.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

#693 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:34 am

It may be "better", in terms of wind and rainfall but, it seems there will still be a large amount of water coming regardless. At least that's the way it's looking from here. Either way I'm thankful she's not heading toward me and I pray for every man and beast who may be unfortunate enough to be in her path.

#694 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:38 am

hey oneness, did I read you correctly? Are you saying she's going to get stronger???!!!! LAST THING ANYONE NEEDS!!!!! :eek:

oneness · #695 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:43 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:hey oneness, did I read you correctly? Are you saying she's going to get stronger???!!!! LAST THING ANYONE NEEDS!!!!!

Don't know if it will get stronger, but when this occured to Katrina the outer eye was affected for about 1.5 revolutions of the outer eye wall then restabilised much larger diameter.

Then the obvious meso vortices appeared in the new eye and she bombed to her peak.

(inner decoupling occurred on the night of Aug 27th if I remember correctly, and very clear on the RGB loops).

#696 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:53 am

You'll have to excuse me for being terribly frightened by that prospect for the people in harms way. As I said before, we got nothing here from Katrina but, Rita has brought 2 nights of coastal flooding and she's so far away from us, I can't even wrap my mind around what she may have in store for those in her path if she were to reintensify! If I could truly wishcast I would wish her away!!

f5 · #697 Postby f5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:54 am

she went nuts over the oven loop current with that 897 mb pressure

oneness · #698 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:56 am

Yeah, very unfortunate if it goes that way. Genuine fear is good as it will keep people alive and being smart, it's apathy and panic, due to a lack of planning and attention which are the killers.

#699 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:01 am

So very true. Hopefully people have learned the lessons that Katrina tried to teach, just wish mother nature would'nt have had to test our knowledge so soon!! Back to back monsters! :roll:

oneness · #700 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 5:14 am

Still struggling with ERC issues, but size and outflow ... wow.

DEVORAK T # plot

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