Rita Recon Reports

[Scorpion]

Let me guess Avila?

[CronkPSU]

Let me guess Avila?

yep

[Windy]

Should be a new VORTEX soon... looks like the NOAA plane just popped into the eye again. 91 kts max in SW quad.

[drezee]

NHC used the Recon flights to increase the gusts from 150 to 155mph...They are looking a the data

[Windy]

931mb.

575
UZNT13 KWBC 232046
XXAA 73217 99282 70926 08282 99931 280// 09507 00/// ///// /////
92061 27611 10005 85810 23402 33005 70496 180// 03502 88999 77999
31313 09608 82031
61616 NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 19
62626 SPL 2816N09263W 2034 WL150 10505 085 DLM WND 04003 931696 M
BL WND 07003=
XXBB 73218 99282 70926 08282 00931 280// 11930 28012 22864 24408
33849 23402 44712 176// 55696 18236
21212 00931 09507 11911 10506 22904 04001 33873 36008 44862 36002
55696 07004
31313 09608 82031
61616 NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 19
62626 SPL 2816N09263W 2034 WL150 10505 085 DLM WND 04003 931696 M
BL WND 07003=

[Thunder44]

131
URNT40 KWBC 232040
NOAA3 2318A RITA
203030 2806 09237 10027 -1673 261011 +177 +155 268014 013 003
203100 2808 09237 10028 -1680 255005 +175 +153 258006 017 001
203130 2810 09238 10033 -1683 066006 +180 +145 078011 999 999
203200 2812 09237 10022 -1688 075017 +167 +159 077018 999 999
203230 2813 09236 10015 -1694 082017 +165 +162 079017 012 004
203300 2812 09233 10019 -1699 123014 +169 +153 108015 012 004
203330 2812 09231 10020 -1692 156018 +179 +144 161023 999 999
203400 2813 09229 10024 -1686 166031 +171 +155 163032 015 003
203430 2815 09228 10023 -1667 154040 +168 +162 156045 028 003
203500 2816 09226 10021 -1639 150054 +182 +149 148060 049 004
203530 2818 09224 10023 -1581 145076 +177 +151 145084 080 005
203600 2819 09222 10033 -1493 146094 +164 +160 147099 087 011
203630 2821 09221 10023 -1385 148115 +150 +150 148117 088 025
203700 2822 09219 10042 -1256 141117 +139 +139 141118 085 028
203730 2823 09218 9997 -1155 142119 +139 +139 143121 064 056
203800 2825 09216 9984 -1059 139117 +131 +131 139118 077 042
203830 2826 09215 9974 -0971 138110 +133 +133 137115 076 024
203900 2827 09213 9988 -0901 138107 +134 +130 137108 076 015
203930 2829 09212 10031 -0834 140106 +137 +120 139107 075 006
204000 2830 09210 10038 -0782 141101 +144 +119 140102 073 003

121kts in NW Quad

[Thunder44]

have you not noticed that the surface winds are of category 2 intensity?

Yeah, but some of the estimates have been lousy of late. Either seems too high or too low. I wouldn't trust it too much.

[weatherFrEaK]

URNT12 KNHC 232100Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2031Z
B. 28 DEG 09 MIN N
92 DEG 37 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2493 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 289 DEG 91 KT
G. 197 DEG 15 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 14 C/ 3055 M
J. 20 C/ 3056 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 124 KT NE QUAD 2037Z
EYE OPEN E THRU W

[Windy]

duplicate

[Derek Ortt]

the SFMR was recalibrated just befor eyesterdays flight, and it was tested and yielded accurate results

this is not a 110KT hurricane

[Thunder44]

575
UZNT13 KWBC 232046
XXAA 73217 99282 70926 08282 99931 280// 09507 00/// ///// /////
92061 27611 10005 85810 23402 33005 70496 180// 03502 88999 77999
31313 09608 82031
61616 NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 19
62626 SPL 2816N09263W 2034 WL150 10505 085 DLM WND 04003 931696 M
BL WND 07003=
XXBB 73218 99282 70926 08282 00931 280// 11930 28012 22864 24408
33849 23402 44712 176// 55696 18236
21212 00931 09507 11911 10506 22904 04001 33873 36008 44862 36002
55696 07004
31313 09608 82031
61616 NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 19
62626 SPL 2816N09263W 2034 WL150 10505 085 DLM WND 04003 931696 M
BL WND 07003=

[Droop12]

So Derek, are you saying the recon reports are useless at this point?

[bigmoney755]

the SFMR was recalibrated just befor eyesterdays flight, and it was tested and yielded accurate results

this is not a 110KT hurricane

you want them to say this is a cat 2 hurricane with a pressure of 931mb?!?!?

[Derek Ortt]

no, they are quite useful to document the wind readings

some here are focuing strictly on the 700mb winds, while totally ignoring the surface winds.

[djtil]

cats arent based on pressure.


only 50% eyewall left......chance of rapid weakening is there.

[tallywx]

Derek, what's been going on with this sea change of hurricanes with pressures that seem to suggest much higher surface winds than they actually have?

I understand that it's not about the pressure but the tightness of the windfield, but still, we're seeing moderately-sized storms and windfields with significant discrepancy between wind and pressure. This is something that was hardly ever observed just a few years ago.

Could it be that our technology has improved such that we're discovering less correlation than previously assumed and attributed to many storms past?

This could mean that many storms considered to be a particular strength, even as recent as 5-10 years ago, may in fact have been much weaker.

[Thunder44]

the SFMR was recalibrated just befor eyesterdays flight, and it was tested and yielded accurate results

this is not a 110KT hurricane

So why doesn't TPC seem to be paying much attention to it? There's no mention of it n the lastest discussion.

[feederband]

cats arent based on pressure.


only 50% eyewall left......chance of rapid weakening is there.

Where you getting that from?

[Derek Ortt]

primarily some of the storms of the 50's and 60's, some of which, like Camielle, were based strictly upon 12 hour old recon reports.

The reanalsyis is fixing this

one thing to notice, Katrina and Rita may been more typical of a WPAC typhoon. Maybe we should be using the WPAC pressure to wind relation and the results there would be more in line with what we are seeing here

[LanceW]

Vortex above:
EYE OPEN E THRU W

cats arent based on pressure.


only 50% eyewall left......chance of rapid weakening is there.

Where you getting that from?