Rita Recon Reports

[Brent]

I understand what NHC is doing, and I am doing the same, artifically keeping Rita as a cat 3 hurricane, basically flat out said as such in the latest forecast discussion

However, no place is going to have sustained winds of cat 3 intensity for 20 minutes

* WARNING FOR ONSET OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO FORCE WINDS FOR...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HURRICANE EYEWALL APPROACHING THE WARNING
AREA.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON PARISH AND JEFFERSON COUNTY PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

UZNT13 KNHC 240325
XXAA 74037 99290 70933 08293 99932 28200 17008 00/// ///// /////
92069 27600 18007 85819 24210 27507 70517 19442 04503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80300
61616 AF309 2518A RITA OB 03
62626 EYE SPL 2901N09332W 0304 MBL WND 20506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
503 932723 WL150 18007 080 =
XXBB 74038 99290 70933 08293 00932 28200 11850 24210 22786 23850
33697 19040
21212 00932 17008 11904 21505 22850 27507 33697 04503
31313 09608 80300
61616 AF309 2518A RITA OB 03
62626 EYE SPL 2901N09332W 0304 MBL WND 20506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
503 932723 WL150 18007 080 =



Dropsonde.

[feederband]

I understand what NHC is doing, and I am doing the same, artifically keeping Rita as a cat 3 hurricane, basically flat out said as such in the latest forecast discussion

However, no place is going to have sustained winds of cat 3 intensity for 20 minutes

Your right I don't think there will be any places with cat 3 for 20 min...They will probably be gone in 10...

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 240324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2524 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 138 deg 115 kt
G. 055 deg 031 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3054 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 81 / 6NM

[Thunder44]

why do I feel like I am talking to a wall?

we dont have a 90 percent reduction factor for this storm and have not had it for a while

I don't think anybody isn't listening to you. Some just don't agree with you.

[JtSmarts]

Seems like the pressure has been slow to rise unlike some other canes we've seen in the past few years.

[Thunder44]

The pressure is rising now and the flight level winds have decreased somewhat from earlier, so I don't think this is intensifying. It may still weaken some more before landfall. Perhaps to Cat 2.

[curtadams]

why do I feel like I am talking to a wall?

we dont have a 90 percent reduction factor for this storm and have not had it for a while

Educate a meteorological newbie. What is the appropriate reduction for these measurements and what should the ground wind speed if it's based on these measurements.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think what weaken it was the dry air over texas...Helped induce EWRC. Thats what I believe weaken it.

[HurricaneBill]

why do I feel like I am talking to a wall?

I feel the same way when I talk to you.

Human nature, I guess.

[Derek Ortt]

for this storm, an 80 percent reduction factor is more appropriate

a professor at RSMAS told me today that based upon a radar cross section analysis, there is more stratiform activity than usual, which is likely why the flight level winds ar enot being transported to the surface.

We may not see any reports of any sustained winds over about 85KT based upon how the eye is collapsing; however, the tidal surge and rain flooding is still going to be severe, plus, 85KT winds with gusts to 100KT can still cause significant damage

[Droop12]

Well somethings gonna look wierd when the final report shows Rita made landfall as a cat 2 with a 934mb(estimate) pressure. Derek, can you explain to me why there wont be any cat 3 winds even though the pressure is so low. I respectfully disagree with you on this, I believe there will be scattered areas of cat 3 winds, especially near Cameron. Help me out, I think Im going crazy trying to figure it out.

[Derek Ortt]

latest H-Wind analysis indicates maximum winds of 97KT, from 8:30 CDT

waiting for a new wind analysis to come out

Gloria was a category 1 hurricane south of Hatteras with a 945mb pressure, so cat 2 with a 932 is definately possible, in a stratiform rich storm

[NorthGaWeather]

I understand what NHC is doing, and I am doing the same, artifically keeping Rita as a cat 3 hurricane, basically flat out said as such in the latest forecast discussion

However, no place is going to have sustained winds of cat 3 intensity for 20 minutes

Your right I don't think there will be any places with cat 3 for 20 min...They will probably be gone in 10...

Maybe sooner.

[Droop12]

Alright Derek, are those 97kt winds at the surface or aloft?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek what do you think weaken it so much?

[Derek Ortt]

surface based upon a dropsonde

it weakened so much 1, because it moved over the northern Gulf, 2. it went through an EWRC 3. the shear increased 4. there was some dry air

[JtSmarts]

Derek so this will be similar to Ivan in max sustained winds?

[Derek Ortt]

probably will be very similar to Hurricane Ivan, which as we all saw last year, was a very destructive hurricane even though its winds may not have reached category 3 status

[houstoncat5]

Well the pressure is 932, has not risen much the past 12 hours. The winds are prob closer to cat4 still. No way this is only cat2. As Joe Bastardi has been saying since Katrina the pressure is a big way to measure a hurricanes intensity hence why JB always mentions the pressure. Im sure on Monday he will be going balistic on his video. The northern Gulf has been very warm and hot the SST. Factor is that stable air from the contient is moving into these systems. Just like we see when storms hit China they draw in drier air. When storms hit Florida there is water on both sides and the air is not as stable. I've talked to Stacy Stweart not long ago and he has informed me that SFMR at high windspeeds are not very accurate. It's drier air thats killing these systems. also Stacy Stewart told me because the high is stronger the last couple seasons its forcing the westerlies closer to the Gulf coast. Dr. Lyons has told me the same. GOod thing is Joe Bastardi of accuwx is making a new hurricane scale to get a more accurate windspeed intensity. It will combine history of past storms, and the pressure.