Is it possible..?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Josephine96

Is it possible..?

#1 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:06 pm

For Rita to possibly weaken 10 more mph and go down to a strong Cat 2 at 110.. or will she make landfall as a bonafied cat 3..? Forgive me for the stupid question..
0 likes   
Top
FunkMasterB
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:24 am

#2 Postby FunkMasterB » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:09 pm

Quite possible. Plenty of time to weaken. I see no signs of current weakening, however.
0 likes   
Top
krysof

#3 Postby krysof » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:09 pm

I personally don't think so, due to the very low pressure, and the continuous well organized hurricane, not to mention only about 3 hours before landfall that this will weaken to a Category 2. It's too late now for it to weaken prior to landfall.
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:10 pm

Thank you for the opinion FM.. I personally think she'll make landfall at no lower than 115.. which would keep her a 3.. but I'm not sure..
0 likes   
Top
FunkMasterB
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:24 am

#5 Postby FunkMasterB » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:13 pm

I'm guessing Cat 3 as well. But shaving off another 10 mph in three hours is quite possible. No reason why it couldn't happen. And it really won't make a difference either way.
0 likes   
Top
tornadochaser86
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:19 am
Location: University of South Alabama
Contact:
Contact tornadochaser86

#6 Postby tornadochaser86 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:20 pm

its possible but i think its to late now it will probably hit cat 3
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#7 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:22 pm

There is a huge blowup of convection to the NW of Rita's eyewall. Wow.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#8 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:23 pm

I'm pretty sure in the next few days, we'll be arguing with Derek over whether this was a Category 3 or not at landfall. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#9 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:24 pm

There is a huge blowup of convection to the NW of Rita's eyewall. Wow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1442
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

#10 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:25 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I'm pretty sure in the next few days, we'll be arguing with Derek over whether this was a Category 3 or not at landfall. :lol:


That's why this storm reminds me of Ivan.
0 likes   
Top
Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#11 Postby Droop12 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:30 pm

I dont care what anybody says, if this is a warm core storm, which it is and the pressure is 930mb than there is no way the winds will be below that of a cat 2. Now, Im not much of a calculus buff and cant really seem to work out the gradient wind eqaution but there just cant be winds weaker then a cat 3 with this type of pressure, not matter how disorganized the eyewall may be. If there is, someone let me know.
0 likes   
Top
Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#12 Postby Droop12 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:33 pm

I might take what I just said back, then eyewall looks pathetic on radar. I've never seen such a horrible looking Cat 3. I just cant imagine this being a cat 1 or 2 with a 930mb-935mb pressure?
0 likes   
Top
djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#13 Postby djtil » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:33 pm

its quite possible that its already at 110. probably wont know the answer to this until post storm observation.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#14 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:45 pm

Whatever the intensity is now is probably going to be the landfall intensity.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 362 guests