Rita Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1781 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:54 pm

884
SXXX50 KNHC 240444
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 25 KNHC
0432. 2908N 09331W 03048 5475 015 019 186 142 025 02626 0000000000
0433 2908N 09332W 03048 5469 001 036 180 144 040 02631 0000000000
0433. 2909N 09334W 03049 5466 001 043 178 146 043 02636 0000000000
0434 2911N 09335W 03047 5458 010 048 176 148 049 02642 0000000000
0434. 2912N 09336W 03044 5445 017 050 176 150 053 02653 0000000000
0435 2913N 09337W 03052 5429 022 056 148 148 057 02676 0000000000
0435. 2914N 09338W 03048 5414 020 063 130 130 066 02688 0000000000
0436 2915N 09340W 03044 5397 026 069 124 124 072 02701 0000000000
0436. 2916N 09341W 03055 5375 028 072 118 118 074 02732 0000000000
0437 2917N 09342W 03039 5357 032 078 110 110 080 02735 0000000000
0437. 2918N 09343W 03051 5344 033 077 108 108 081 02760 0000000000
0438 2920N 09344W 03053 5326 035 078 112 112 079 02781 0000000000
0438. 2921N 09346W 03047 5308 038 078 124 124 079 02792 0000000000
0439 2922N 09347W 03045 5291 035 077 122 122 078 02807 0000000000
0439. 2923N 09348W 03054 5279 040 076 120 120 076 02829 0000000000
0440 2924N 09349W 03048 5269 049 082 112 112 085 02832 0000000000
0440. 2926N 09351W 03041 5263 056 085 116 116 087 02831 0000000000
0441 2927N 09352W 03057 5253 062 086 112 112 089 02858 0000000000
0441. 2928N 09354W 03045 5239 062 094 108 108 096 02859 0000000000
0442 2930N 09355W 03043 5231 060 093 102 102 097 02865 0000000000
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1782 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:55 pm

houstoncat5 wrote:
bigmoney755 wrote:have they done NE quad?


I never understand why they dont go into the NE quad first. maybe they had to much to drink lol. :D :wink:


They already did the NE quad, if it's the same plane. (& it is, just doublechecked)
Last edited by Windy on Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1783 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:56 pm

Damn, missed some data -- anyone catch if it got over 107KT in the SE quad? Anyone have the missing datablock?
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1784 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:00 am

529
SXXX50 KNHC 240454
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 26 KNHC
0442. 2931N 09356W 03053 5219 062 090 100 100 094 02887 0000000000
0443 2932N 09358W 03047 5210 062 093 100 100 095 02890 0000000000
0443. 2934N 09359W 03049 5205 063 094 098 098 096 02898 0000000000
0444 2935N 09401W 03045 5192 062 098 096 096 101 02906 0000000000
0444. 2935N 09404W 03048 5182 059 098 092 092 103 02920 0000000100
0445 2933N 09406W 03050 5180 057 092 098 098 093 02924 0000000000
0445. 2931N 09406W 03049 5187 053 091 104 104 092 02915 0000000000
0446 2929N 09407W 03046 5188 051 091 102 102 092 02912 0000000000
0446. 2927N 09408W 03049 5194 048 091 108 108 092 02908 0000000000
0447 2924N 09409W 03047 5191 046 091 106 106 093 02909 0000000000
0447. 2922N 09410W 03047 5193 044 086 108 108 088 02908 0000000000
0448 2920N 09410W 03048 5195 041 084 110 110 084 02906 0000000000
0448. 2917N 09410W 03047 5196 036 084 110 110 084 02904 0000000000
0449 2915N 09410W 03050 5198 033 083 112 112 084 02906 0000000000
0449. 2913N 09410W 03048 5197 029 080 114 114 081 02904 0000000000
0450 2910N 09411W 03046 5196 027 079 124 124 081 02904 0000000000
0450. 2908N 09412W 03048 5190 027 078 124 124 080 02912 0000000000
0451 2907N 09414W 03050 5183 025 081 118 118 084 02921 0000000000
0451. 2905N 09417W 03046 5173 023 083 120 120 085 02926 0000000000
0452 2904N 09419W 03051 5163 020 089 114 114 094 02942 0000000000
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1785 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:01 am

127
UZNT13 KNHC 240454
XXAA 74058 99291 70935 08293 99934 27811 32509 00/// ///// /////
92084 27206 33010 85832 24013 32511 70526 19856 88999 77999
31313 09608 80432
61616 AF309 2518A RITA OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 2912N09350W 0435 MBL WND 33011 AEV 20507 DLM WND 33
011 934774 WL150 32510 075 =
XXBB 74058 99291 70935 08293 00934 27811 11850 24013 22738 20238
33723 21256 44697 19056
21212 00934 32509 11893 33511 22850 32511 33817 32510 44776 36011
55697 01520
31313 09608 80432
61616 AF309 2518A RITA OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 2912N09350W 0435 MBL WND 33011 AEV 20507 DLM WND 33
011 934774 WL150 32510 075 =
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1786 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:03 am

415
URNT12 KNHC 240453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2533 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 201 deg 107 kt
G. 130 deg 043 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3038 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN ESE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 126 / 26NM
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1787 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:09 am

925
SXXX50 KNHC 240504
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 27 KNHC
0452. 2902N 09421W 03050 5147 015 097 102 102 097 02956 0000000000
0453 2900N 09423W 03044 5131 012 091 092 092 095 02967 0000000000
0453. 2859N 09425W 03043 5117 359 086 086 086 087 02980 0000000000
0454 2857N 09426W 03051 5107 350 080 088 088 081 02998 0000000100
0454. 2855N 09427W 03046 5100 344 074 086 086 075 03000 0000000000
0455 2853N 09429W 03050 5093 341 071 100 100 072 03011 0000000000
0455. 2851N 09430W 03048 5088 339 069 110 110 071 03014 0000000000
0456 2849N 09431W 03048 5082 335 065 106 106 065 03020 0000000000
0456. 2848N 09432W 03049 5076 336 066 124 110 067 03026 0000000000
0457 2846N 09433W 03049 5071 337 069 122 108 070 03032 0000000000
0457. 2844N 09434W 03047 5066 340 070 116 106 071 03035 0000000000
0458 2842N 09435W 03047 5061 340 070 110 110 071 03040 0000000000
0458. 2840N 09437W 03049 5056 338 068 106 106 070 03047 0000000000
0459 2838N 09438W 03048 5050 338 068 106 106 069 03052 0000000000
0459. 2836N 09439W 03047 5045 337 069 108 108 069 03056 0000000000
0500 2835N 09440W 03049 5038 334 068 114 104 069 03065 0000000000
0500. 2833N 09441W 03046 5032 332 063 112 104 065 03068 0000000000
0501 2831N 09442W 03049 5028 329 059 112 100 059 03075 0000000000
0501. 2829N 09443W 03047 5025 328 062 112 096 062 03076 0000000000
0502 2827N 09444W 03049 5021 328 064 110 090 064 03082 0000000000
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1788 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:19 am

912
SXXX50 KNHC 240514
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 28 KNHC
0502. 2826N 09445W 03048 5018 332 064 106 098 065 03084 0000000000
0503 2824N 09447W 03049 5014 335 064 104 098 064 03088 0000000000
0503. 2822N 09448W 03046 5012 334 061 110 086 062 03088 0000000000
0504 2820N 09449W 03050 5008 333 059 108 082 059 03095 0000000000
0504. 2819N 09450W 03049 5006 334 058 106 090 058 03097 0000000000
0505 2817N 09451W 03046 5004 333 058 104 092 059 03096 0000000000
0505. 2815N 09452W 03051 5001 332 058 104 090 059 03105 0000000000
0506 2813N 09453W 03046 0003 332 057 102 086 057 03103 0000000000
0506. 2811N 09454W 03048 0006 329 058 100 090 059 03108 0000000000
0507 2810N 09455W 03047 0008 328 054 102 084 054 03110 0000000000
0507. 2808N 09456W 03047 0009 328 053 106 082 054 03111 0000000000
0508 2806N 09457W 03049 0012 328 054 098 084 054 03116 0000000000
0508. 2804N 09459W 03049 0014 327 056 096 088 056 03117 0000000000
0509 2803N 09500W 03046 0018 325 056 092 088 058 03118 0000000000
0509. 2801N 09501W 03049 0020 323 062 096 082 063 03123 0000000000
0510 2759N 09502W 03048 0023 320 062 094 070 063 03125 0000000000
0510. 2758N 09503W 03048 0025 320 062 094 066 063 03127 0000000000
0511 2756N 09504W 03048 0029 319 059 094 074 060 03131 0000000000
0511. 2754N 09504W 03052 0037 316 056 096 080 057 03144 0000000000
0512 2753N 09503W 03048 0035 314 057 096 076 057 03137 0000000000
0 likes   

djones65
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:05 am
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

#1789 Postby djones65 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:24 am

Derek,
When you make such "guarantees" in your statements you should precede it with the Storm2k disclaimer.
You are not "official information" and I believe you are misleading sometimes with your statements.
Until landfall occurs we will not know how strong the surface winds really are and since landfall has still not occured it is WRONG to state "no one will experienc cat 3 winds."
Secondly there are many times that you go off on "spot reports..." so to speak. For example, we are always told not to read anything into short term "wobbles" of motion (which I believe we all know to be true)... I assert we should make the same conclusion on wind speeds. As we all know convection goes through diurnal fluctuations and internal dynamics are in constant flux. Just because in your opinion flight level winds are not mixing down to the surface at this time does not mean it won't in the next several hours. Plus, all you can offer is an OPINION.... it is irresponsible to state them as facts. Please use the disclaimer. I hope Storm 2k will agree with me on this.

P.S. When you called Dennis a subtropical cyclone when it was reorganizing over the SE Gulf in early July was laughable and resulted in loss of credibility. I believe you made that assertion based on two vortex messages in which the temperature in the center was equal or slightly cooler than ambient temperature outside the center.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#1790 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:29 am

the s2k disclaimer applies to amateur forecasts, not professional ones

The forecasts I have provided have been used for RAINEX, so they are endorsed by professional organizations, including my own, which has brought in some $$ this year
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1791 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:31 am

787
SXXX50 KNHC 240523
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 29 KNHC
0512. 2753N 09500W 03049 0033 317 057 096 070 058 03137 0000000000
0513 2754N 09459W 03046 0027 318 056 094 068 057 03127 0000000000
0513. 2755N 09459W 03048 0024 316 058 096 068 058 03127 0000000000
0514 2757N 09459W 03049 0023 315 057 096 072 057 03126 0000000000
0514. 2758N 09458W 03046 0021 316 055 096 080 057 03121 0000000000
0515 2800N 09457W 03050 0019 319 051 090 086 051 03123 0000000000
0515. 2801N 09456W 03047 0016 319 047 092 086 048 03117 0000000000
0516 2802N 09455W 03048 0013 320 048 100 082 048 03115 0000000000
0516. 2804N 09453W 03050 0012 320 048 100 084 048 03116 0000000000
0517 2805N 09452W 03046 0010 323 050 098 086 051 03111 0000000000
0517. 2806N 09451W 03046 0008 323 050 100 084 051 03108 0000000000
0518 2807N 09449W 03050 0007 322 049 102 090 049 03111 0000000000
0518. 2808N 09448W 03049 0005 323 051 102 090 052 03107 0000000000
0519 2810N 09447W 03046 0002 325 049 102 092 051 03102 0000000000
0519. 2811N 09445W 03047 5002 324 051 100 094 052 03100 0000000000
0520 2812N 09444W 03050 5004 325 051 096 094 051 03100 0000000000
0520. 2813N 09443W 03049 5007 324 051 096 096 052 03095 0000000000
0521 2814N 09441W 03048 5010 324 053 096 096 053 03093 0000000000
0521. 2816N 09440W 03049 5013 320 053 096 096 054 03089 0000000000
0522 2817N 09439W 03049 5016 317 053 100 100 054 03087 0000000000
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1792 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:37 am

662
SXXX50 KNHC 240534
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 30 KNHC
0522. 2818N 09437W 03044 5018 318 056 104 100 056 03079 0000000000
0523 2819N 09436W 03054 5021 315 058 104 096 060 03087 0000000000
0523. 2821N 09435W 03045 5024 313 059 108 094 060 03075 0000000000
0524 2822N 09433W 03048 5027 311 060 102 096 062 03075 0000000000
0524. 2823N 09432W 03047 5031 308 060 102 098 060 03071 0000000000
0525 2824N 09430W 03049 5034 307 059 102 102 060 03068 0000000000
0525. 2826N 09429W 03048 5039 309 060 106 106 061 03063 0000000000
0526 2827N 09428W 03048 5044 312 060 106 106 061 03058 0000000000
0526. 2828N 09426W 03046 5049 317 061 110 104 062 03051 0000000000
0527 2829N 09425W 03049 5054 317 062 112 102 063 03049 0000000000
0527. 2831N 09424W 03050 5060 315 065 108 106 065 03044 0000000000
0528 2832N 09422W 03046 5065 315 065 114 106 065 03035 0000000000
0528. 2833N 09421W 03047 5068 315 064 118 102 064 03033 0000000000
0529 2834N 09419W 03050 5072 317 063 120 098 063 03032 0000000000
0529. 2835N 09418W 03049 5077 318 066 116 104 067 03026 0000000000
0530 2837N 09417W 03045 5083 323 068 120 104 069 03015 0000000000
0530. 2838N 09415W 03048 5089 318 067 120 102 068 03013 0000000000
0531 2839N 09414W 03051 5095 316 069 128 098 071 03009 0000000000
0531. 2840N 09413W 03045 5103 313 066 120 120 069 02996 0000000000
0532 2841N 09411W 03046 5110 315 070 104 104 072 02989 0000000000
0 likes   

bigmoney755

#1793 Postby bigmoney755 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:37 am

is this right? 936mb?
624
URNT12 KNHC 240513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 176 deg 113 kt
G. 084 deg 017 nm
H. EXTRAP 936 mb
I. 11 C/ 3652 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/24/16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1794 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:38 am

624
URNT12 KNHC 240513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 176 deg 113 kt
G. 084 deg 017 nm
H. EXTRAP 936 mb
I. 11 C/ 3652 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/24/16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z
0 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#1795 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:38 am

I think Derek is referring to a research project known as "Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment," which incidentally is being run by RSMAS, the same academic research organization for which Derek works.
0 likes   

djones65
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:05 am
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

#1796 Postby djones65 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:40 am

Derek I didn't know you were a NHC employee.
I never saw your name on any of the NHC advisories or discussions.

I must have a different interpretation of the "Everyone must read prior to posting" statement.

I didn't realize that those storm2k designates as a "professional met" are above making mistakes or drawing incomplete or flawed conclusions. I guess I should never question a professional met's opinion.

The official NHC advisory states sustained winds are 120 mph. Officially from the NHC, Rita has sustained winds of 120 mph and I hope that ALL persons in the path of this hurricane will take it as a very serious situation... a category 3 hurricane. Even though some irresponsible statements contradict this.
0 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#1797 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:41 am

Windy wrote:624
URNT12 KNHC 240513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 176 deg 113 kt
G. 084 deg 017 nm
H. EXTRAP 936 mb
I. 11 C/ 3652 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/24/16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z


Beautiful, a NE jog of all things.
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1798 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:41 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the s2k disclaimer applies to amateur forecasts, not professional ones

The forecasts I have provided have been used for RAINEX, so they are endorsed by professional organizations, including my own, which has brought in some $$ this year


Is Rita sub tropical by any chance. :roll:
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1799 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:43 am

djones65 wrote:I didn't realize that those storm2k designates as a "professional met" are above making mistakes or drawing incomplete or flawed conclusions. I guess I should never question a professional met's opinion.


The other mets are very reliable, so you can trust them.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#1800 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:43 am

Given that Cameron was gusting to 112 mph before the eyewall is even onshore, I'm pretty confident 120 sustained is a pretty good estimate by NHC.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kn4ds, LarryWx, wwizard and 97 guests