Lessons of Surge...

[Ixolib]

Before Katrina, Rita, and even Ivan, the awareness of surge issues with landfalling storms that were "previously" cat 5's in the Gulf was seemingly not an overly-discussed issue in the public arena. I believe the lessons of this year, including analysis and re-analysis, will have to include a much greater public knowledge of the surge that storms of this nature can bring with them.

So often, everybody (general media and most local mets included) gets hung up on the wind speed as the sole indicator of damage at landfall, but for "these types" of storms, the potential for extreme surge is huge. I just remain hopeful that future canes will be addressed equally - if not more so - for their surge potential as they are for their wind potential.

I certainly know in my case how I will react in the future. From now on, anytime a storm reaches cat 5 in the GOM - regardless of its intensity at landfall - I will be heading to higher ground, especially if I'm gonna be on the right side. And I'm at 30 feet above MSL!!

[HurricaneQueen]

And you are going to stay in touch with us, right! LOL

Just kidding (sort of) but you are absolutely correct. Just because the storms are downgraded, it doesn't mean the wave build up magically disappears.

Lynn

[Ixolib]

And you are going to stay in touch with us, right! LOL

Just kidding (sort of) but you are absolutely correct. Just because the storms are downgraded, it doesn't mean the wave build up magically disappears.

Lynn

Absolutely!! In review and retrospect, I now much better realize the importance of making and maintaining contact!!

[Ixolib]

Based on what I'm seeing this morning on the news, it appears that once again a cat 3 storm has brought with it a cat 5 surge. While I realize the Saffir-Simpson scale addresses surge potential, it does not address the potential for an even higher surge if a particular storm was only recently downgraded just before or at landfall.

I guess my point is that the media and the NHC might offer a better service and education to the public if they would specifically address and communicate the fact that the surge for a landfalling cat 3 will be more significant than labled on the SS scale if the storm was only recently downgraded from a cat 5.

[karenfromheaven]

I think it would be very helpful to see the NHC develop a graphical forecast of storm surge. I find it has more impact for me to see the range of surge values, and to see how they line up in relation to the storm track. Perhaps they have such a tool already that they use internally. Of course, as a weather weenie, I'm interested in seeing all of their goodies...

[Cookiely]

A picture is worth a thousand words. If the media would get a long pole in front of a building in the city that is in the cone and say this is how high the projected surge level will be then maybe people will understand better. Also, if the media were to evacuate it might be a nice touch. Residents see the mayors, firemen, police and media staying and think, I might as well stay too.