TRULY AMAZING...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not the fact that there were two cat 5's in the GOM in a months time (well that is another matter) but the fact that ANOTHER major city dodged another major. Absolutely no disrespect to anyone in the citys or towns that are about to be affected or have been affected in the last couple of years inculding my own . But we had one of the biggest populated areas on the coast with the bullseye on them for the last couple of days and will most likely get sideswiped. Miami missed with Andrew and Jeanne, Tampa with Charley, New Orleans with Ivan and Katrina. Yes Katrina. It was horrible, but everyone knows it could have been a lot worse. And now Houston with Rita. It is just a miracle that these storms seem to veer away from the last minute and weaken(most of the time)and avoid some of the worst disasters coastal areas could ever imagine. I know one day one city's luck will run out but right now we can breathe a little easier and prepare for the next one.

[JtSmarts]

I think if you truly look at the major hurricane strikes of the past 15 years or so almost all of them have just missed a major city.

[caribepr]

I find it almost incomprehensible to follow the reasoning of your post. Yes, there are facts within it, but taken on any level, be it the emotional of the vast destruction of life and property, the trauma suffered and still being suffered and yet to be suffered, or the practical aspect of the literal monetary cost - I find it hard to breathe at all, let alone let out a breath of relief for any of the storm related events this season.

[milankovitch]

Unfortunately it will happen eventually.

[Pebbles]

No I have to agree... There is a slight sigh of relief it is not making a direct hit to a extremely populated metro area. That doesn't mean there is a sigh of relief over the storm. Quite the contrary, still people are going to be increadibly devistated by this. But the impacts not quite as harsh and a little more managable because of that. We must try to find that smidgen of silver lining in bad situations also.

Look how horribly devistating N.O. was after Katrina. The current situation is incomprehensable. Can you imagine if Katrina had plowed over N.O. and added the full brunt of her wind forces to the city? I don't think it's wrong for people to try to find little blessings when things are horrible. Sometimes it can be the little blessing that help us emotionally work though a heartwrentching situation.

Kinda of like the gentleman that gave the interview that was on the bus this morning that exploded. You could tell he was very distraught over the situation. But he managed to also crack a couple of little joke. It didn't mean his plight or what he had gone through any less disasterous. But I do believe it showed the strength of his human spirit.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thank You Pebbles. That is exactly what I was taking about. As hard as it is sometimes you have to try to make a positive out of a negative. And whether everyone agrees or not it is a positive. I feel for my neighbors to my west who are catching the full brunt and will lose their homes, properties, and even lives, but this also could have been a lot worse.

[Burn1]

It has been years since a major cane hit metropolitan Fort Lauderdale and Miami......With the build up since the early to mid 60's, and another
major construction boom going on now....A cat 4, or 5 is a disaster of major proportions just waiting to happen for major met areas of SE Florida

[Doc Seminole]

I find it almost incomprehensible to follow the reasoning of your post. Yes, there are facts within it, but taken on any level, be it the emotional of the vast destruction of life and property, the trauma suffered and still being suffered and yet to be suffered, or the practical aspect of the literal monetary cost - I find it hard to breathe at all, let alone let out a breath of relief for any of the storm related events this season.

Dude, he is right absolutely right, no matter what Rita does now, and yes, it will be devasting in some areas, if she'd remained a 4 or 5 into the Freeport area...... well, I can't imagine the consequences. Same for all of the other storms mentioned.

Doc Seminole

[Steve H.]

Burn1, bite your tongue....the season isn't over yet

[wlfpack81]

I understand what you're saying too CYCLONE MIKE. Though it was horrible in NO had the w-ern eyewall went over the city then we'd have 200,000+ dead as 20-30ft would've went into just about every section of the city. Soon though "luck" will run out and I fear that a major city will feel the effects from the eyewall of a major hurricane and it's not going to be pretty. 10-15 more years or so of these active period so we're still in for a wild ride and possibly more heart wrenching moments in the future.

[terstorm1012]

JB , I saw him on CNBC the other night and he talked about the Great Hurricane of 1938---------15 ft of water in downtown Providence.

Mother Nature likes to repeat Herself. If it's happened before, it will happen again.

Slightly off topic--I'm doing a research project on SLOSH models----anyone know where I could find them for the Delaware/New Jersey coast incl. Delaware Bay? send me a PM.

[caribepr]

I find it almost incomprehensible to follow the reasoning of your post. Yes, there are facts within it, but taken on any level, be it the emotional of the vast destruction of life and property, the trauma suffered and still being suffered and yet to be suffered, or the practical aspect of the literal monetary cost - I find it hard to breathe at all, let alone let out a breath of relief for any of the storm related events this season.

Dude, he is right absolutely right, no matter what Rita does now, and yes, it will be devasting in some areas, if she'd remained a 4 or 5 into the Freeport area...... well, I can't imagine the consequences. Same for all of the other storms mentioned.

Doc Seminole

It's Dudette (I'm too old for asexual labeling) I agreed that he was right factually. And the word I used, reasoning, was wrong to use. I do understand the reasoning. I just believe that there are few situations in life where some aspect couldn't have *been worse* and while true, it doesn't, to me, lessen at all the reality of what does happen. By that I mean, if a cat 5 hits some major city and something survives that *shouldn't have* someone is bound to say, oh wow, it could have been worse! So it's all relative and just my point of view...too strongly worded, no doubt. And yes, I'm REALLY glad that landfall shifted northeast even while really sad that anyone (be it frustrated and worse evacuees or those who will go home - or are at home - with not much - and the LA ones who are again being slammed by Nature) had to be affected in any way.

[tndefender]

What I worry about now is that when the inevitable does happen and a major city is directly hit by a hurricane that there may be more loss of life because people may now have a false sense of security and also because they have seen what a nightmare it can be trying to get out of a densely populated area.

[caribepr]

What I worry about now is that when the inevitable does happen and a major city is directly hit by a hurricane that there may be more loss of life because people may now have a false sense of security and also because they have seen what a nightmare it can be trying to get out of a densely populated area.

Two very real concerns...and listening to some of the people in those horrible traffic hold ups, a few said they would rather die in their homes than on a highway...understandable. It was one of the times I thought, I'm glad evacuation isn't an option here...(even though I am a BIG believer in going if you have to go.)
Just a question, as I am not familiar with the road systems in Texas...did people use surface streets at all as opposed to the interstates? I've only lived in two cities, Orlando and Miami, and there were many ways to travel without getting on the interstate to go north.

[Portastorm]

What I worry about now is that when the inevitable does happen and a major city is directly hit by a hurricane that there may be more loss of life because people may now have a false sense of security and also because they have seen what a nightmare it can be trying to get out of a densely populated area.

Two very real concerns...and listening to some of the people in those horrible traffic hold ups, a few said they would rather die in their homes than on a highway...understandable. It was one of the times I thought, I'm glad evacuation isn't an option here...(even though I am a BIG believer in going if you have to go.)
Just a question, as I am not familiar with the road systems in Texas...did people use surface streets at all as opposed to the interstates? I've only lived in two cities, Orlando and Miami, and there were many ways to travel without getting on the interstate to go north.

Well, mine is anecdotal information ... but I have heard that those who tried to use "backroads" did much, much better than those who held to the major interstate and state routes.

[wxmann_91]

Close your eyes and try to make the bulls-eye on a dartboard. Chances are that you will come close but never get there.

Similarly, hurricanes are blind. Ridges and troughs guide them to their eventual destination, and in some ways they are blind too. So the chances of a major hurricane hitting a major city is pretty slim.

[quandary]

Maybe we should realized that although a hurricane is a large span of winds, its most destructive parts, the eye, eyewall and right front quadrant where the surge is, just isn't that large at all, perhaps 50-100 miles at most.

The length of the Gulf Coast is thousands of miles and there are only three "major" cities on it, Houston/Galveston, New Orleans and Tampa. Together, these cities have a coastline of perhaps 100 miles. So, the odds of a hurricane striking any particular stretch of coastline is approximately, (length of stretch) * 100/(length of coastline). The probability of any given hurricane then striking on of the three stretch striking directly at a major city on the Gulf Coast then is about 5%.

We've had 5 significant hurricanes in the Gulf make landfall in the past 2 years, Ivan, Dennis, Charley, Katrina and Rita. Standard math would say that the probability of even one of them making direct landfall on a major city is less than 5x5% = 25%.

Of course, this does not even take into consideration that Tampa is situated in a relatively hard to hit area, not impossible of course, Charley could've done it, but still in a position where the tendency would be to bend away. New Orleans is INLAND. There's only 10-20 miles of coastline where Katrina could've hit that would make it worse than what already happened.

So we really haven't been lucky. Sure, its not like these storms have had brains and a vengence against the US, so one hit Tampa directly, one hit NO directly, one hit Houston directly, one in Miami and one in New York, but think back to the odds again, that's a ridicuously unlikely case at any time, so we haven't been getting unlucky at al.

[LSU]

Katrina passed 10 miles east of NOLA. Could have been worse for the city, but not much. No bullet was dodged.

Rita passed 100+miles east of Houston. Houston's worse will be what NOLA got from Rita 24 hours ago. No bullet dodged because the gun wasn't pointed at Houston.