Rita part II......back in the gulf???

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vacanechaser
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#21 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:51 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:This confirms the utter worthlessness of most models. The system isn't going back in the Gulf--it is going to linger, and be a rainmaker for the entire region, unfortunately. Once again, it shows that the models need improvement, and do not reflect any semblance of forecasting reliability. Is anybody else still waiting for Rita to hit Mexico, or extreme South Texas Gulf? :eek:


Well, just so you know, the one model showing it getting back into the Gulf, the hurricane model, GFDL, did a better job with Katrina and Rita than a lot of the global models. So far this year, the NHC has choosen the GFDL as the model to go with. I hope it dont do that, however, 2 of the models and one being a global are now showing that it is possible.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#22 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:26 pm

ChaserUK wrote:sorry but I cannot remember - we did have a storm do something similar last season didn't we? I seem to remember something redveloping into a TS?

Also first time I have been able to log on since this morning (at work). Glad to see everyone is OK - from what I can see so far - need to catch up.
It was Ivan that looped around FL and reformed in the TX as a TS.
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#23 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 24, 2005 4:13 pm

ChaserUK wrote:sorry but I cannot remember - we did have a storm do something similar last season didn't we? I seem to remember something redveloping into a TS?

Also first time I have been able to log on since this morning (at work). Glad to see everyone is OK - from what I can see so far - need to catch up.


IVAN :grr: The storm that would never die.
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#24 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 24, 2005 4:14 pm

Yep... Rita looks like a big rainmaker here. I'm hoping it'll bust this awful drought we have had for almost a month, now I'm worried we may get TOO MUCH.
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#25 Postby ChaserUK » Sat Sep 24, 2005 4:23 pm

Cheers guys. I thought it was Ivan. Just for the record, FOX has now started to mention the possibilty of Rita, or at least part of her energy being dragged/ pushed back to the GOM by a CF.
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#26 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 4:59 pm

If it does regenwerate in the gulf, does it have a chnce to be a strong storm? :?:
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#27 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:17 pm

***Note...not all are tropical models.

Image
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#28 Postby HurryKane » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:21 pm

Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...
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#29 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:27 pm

HurryKane wrote:Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...


:lol: :lol: :lol: How about more noodles then!

Image
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#30 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:33 pm

skysummit wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...


:lol: :lol: :lol: How about more noodles then!


:roflmao: Don't forget the meatballs and the tomato sauce! :roflmao:
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#31 Postby HurryKane » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:33 pm

skysummit wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...


:lol: :lol: :lol: How about more noodles then!



MMmmmmm, grazi!
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#32 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:51 pm

Even if she does loop back into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions will probably be unfavorable for development, since there is strong shear in many areas of the Gulf of Mexico as well as over much of the Atlantic Basin.

Wow... there is 30KT to 40KT shear over Florida and the Bahamas right now and a large area of 20KT shear in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
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#33 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:55 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:
skysummit wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...


:lol: :lol: :lol: How about more noodles then!


:roflmao: Don't forget the meatballs and the tomato sauce! :roflmao:


Image
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#34 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:58 pm

Please don't let the meatballs roll away with the noodles... we need those things to steer Rita away from the Gulf of Mexico!

Just joking... funny picture, Windy!

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

EDIT - Typing mistake!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#35 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:58 pm

Windy wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
skysummit wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Suddenly, I am hungry for a spaghetti dinner...


:lol: :lol: :lol: How about more noodles then!


:roflmao: Don't forget the meatballs and the tomato sauce! :roflmao:


Image



Aaaah! That spooked the crap out of me when I was scrolling down this page with my mouse! :lol:

<RICKY>
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#36 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Sep 24, 2005 6:00 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Aaaah! That spooked the crap out of me when I was scrolling down this page with my mouse! :lol:

<RICKY>


I agree... it surprised me too!

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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#37 Postby HurryKane » Sat Sep 24, 2005 6:19 pm

EW. Suddenly, my dinner isn't appetizing anymore. :P
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#38 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 6:27 pm

Latest model data are converging on a rapid acceleration to the NE on Monday ahead of the approaching front. Both the GFS and ECMWF now show that solution, and these were the two main models indicating that Rita may hang around and loop to the south. That looks MUCH more reasonable, as upper level winds will be from the SW across Rita by Sunday.
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#39 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 24, 2005 7:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Latest model data are converging on a rapid acceleration to the NE on Monday ahead of the approaching front. Both the GFS and ECMWF now show that solution, and these were the two main models indicating that Rita may hang around and loop to the south. That looks MUCH more reasonable, as upper level winds will be from the SW across Rita by Sunday.


good. the faster this systems moves on out the better.

<RICKY>
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#40 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 7:56 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Aaaah! That spooked the crap out of me when I was scrolling down this page with my mouse! :lol:

<RICKY>


I agree... it surprised me too!

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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