NHC Hype

[TheShrimper]

This post by no means is intended to bash the NHC, as they preform a job that can be topped by none. Perhaps I should have rephrased the heading, but so be it. The claim recently has been "dont focus on a point", when it deals to landfalling hurricanes. Yes, this is a good proclamation from them, seeing that there are complexities away from the point of landfall. But the general public, those being novices regarding tropical weather, take for granted that every square inch of the cloud envelope associated with a storm, house the grim revelations brought out in the advisories from the NHC. Most do not realize that one small sampling, does not make a 400 mile wide whirlwind of destruction. Buoy reports and land observations very rarely confirm the intensity that the NHC establishes in thier advisories. There is no doubt that what they find is factual, but it is the public's perception that needs to be finely honed to exactly what they are saying. It perhaps is the media's fault as much as anyone elses, regarding the doomsday scenarios. There are still calls to SW Fla. Chamber of Commerce's asking still about Charley's effects from last year. I am sure people are calling the Key's now wondering about the "devastation'. Not to ever belittle the force or a hurricane, but the public needs to realize that indeed a hurricane as portrayed by the NHC and the media is a point...the maximum sustained winds are contained in a fragment of the cloudmass that is highlighted on the TV screens over every cable network available. Yes, 48 hrs out I realize you have no real way of knowing if that fragment will be impacting you or not. But the chances are that it will not, and if people understand this, it will cause so much less intimidation. In 20 years, I have not seen an advisory prior to a landfalling cane, where the ground obsevations backed up what the NHC had stated just 2 hrs previous, except for Andrew. There may had been others, but you would have to dig deep to find them.

[skufful]

Agreed, but you never know. Hugo was pretty tough, and he sustained himself way into land.

[f5]

i don't think south carolina will ever forget that bully monster named Hugo

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the reason why the NHC (besides that it may be true in some cases, depending on the storm) tells people to "not focus on the black line" is because (sorry if this is wrong, but it's from what I've noticed) we've raised a society of "thrillseekers" (this does not apply to everyone, and I know some people could not help it that they could not leave before storms came ashore, so I hope I don't sound mean) and people WHO HAVE THE MEANS AND MONEY TO LEAVE BUT DON'T who are just SO IGNORANT, thinking, "Oh, it'll weaken before landfall; Ivan did that, Dennis did that, Katrina did that, Rita did that; it'll only be a Category Three or less at landfall. Minor damage and stress, nothing more." They think they can just "ride out the storm"... and they are STILL doing it, even after seeing the devastation caused by a so-called "rapidly weakening" Katrina. What ever happened to the days when we learned from our mistakes? After Andrew, people who had the means to leave learned lessons from mistakes and pledged to wisely leave the next time if a major hurricane (Category Three or higher) or even lower threatened. What happened to those days? I can't help it... I am just sick of how we have not so-called "evolved", but "devolved".

Any thoughts?

[skufful]

And we evacuated thx to NHC, but the storm turned north to CHS and we only had TS winds. I just bet if we had had JB and accuweather we would have never had to leave. (tongue in cheek!!)

[tronbunny]

It is also important to consider that a storm's effects on one individual will be quite different than the effects on another... regardless of their physical location....
So, how one views a storm's impact is also, just as varied.

I actually felt, today, that the effects of Charley, Francis and Jeanne on me, and my family last year, were insignificant to what Rita has done...
probably due to the sensitivity that Katrina has wrought.

I'm sure that reality is some happy medium between the extremes...

Our 3 storm ordeal last year really was just as devastating, but in a different way, and my personal situation was based on one of preparedness and responsibility... along with being well-informed.
Lets not forget, a bit of The Good Lord's Grace, to give me the strength and wisdom to behave in a way that gives me hope!

[MiamiensisWx]

It is also important to consider that a storm's effects on one individual will be quite different than the effects on another... regardless of their physical location....
So, how one views a storm's impact is also, just as varied.

I actually felt, today, that the effects of Charley, Francis and Jeanne on me, and my family last year, were insignificant to what Rita has done...
probably due to the sensitivity that Katrina has wrought.

I'm sure that reality is some happy medium between the extremes...

Our 3 storm ordeal last year really was just as devastating, but in a different way, and my personal situation was based on one of preparedness and responsibility... along with being well-informed.
Lets not forget, a bit of The Good Lord's Grace, to give me the strength and wisdom to behave in a way that gives me hope!

Very true, tronbunny! Good post... it depends on how you have personally experienced a storm or storms or what you have seen from other storms (e.g., Katrina). Also, you may compare and relate other storms such as Rita and Katrina to your own personal storm experiences.

[skufful]

I think the reason why the NHC (besides that it may be true in some cases, depending on the storm) tells people to "not focus on the black line" is because (sorry if this is wrong, but it's from what I've noticed) we've raised a society of "thrillseekers" (this does not apply to everyone, and I know some people could not help it that they could not leave before storms came ashore, so I hope I don't sound mean) and people WHO HAVE THE MEANS AND MONEY TO LEAVE BUT DON'T who are just SO IGNORANT, thinking, "Oh, it'll weaken before landfall; Ivan did that, Dennis did that, Katrina did that, Rita did that; it'll only be a Category Three or less at landfall. Minor damage and stress, nothing more." They think they can just "ride out the storm"... and they are STILL doing it, even after seeing the devastation caused by a so-called "rapidly weakening" Katrina. What ever happened to the days when we learned from our mistakes? After Andrew, people who had the means to leave learned lessons from mistakes and pledged to wisely leave the next time if a major hurricane (Category Three or higher) or even lower threatened. What happened to those days? I can't help it... I am just sick of how we have not so-called "evolved", but "devolved".

Any thoughts?

I am somewhat tired of the "means to leave" stuff. Did you see all of those cars flooded in the 9th? ward of NO. I would just bet if the power ball was at 1 billion $$ and they had to get 100 miles inland to but the ticket they could find a way. It's not just the rich (those with "means") that choose to ride out storms. At some point we all have to accept responsibility for our actions or inactions. That's not to say those truely without the means to leave should not have some help to evacuate.

[traciepb]

Tronbunny, I couldn't agree with you more.

I was in a state of "zombie-ness" for 6 weeks last year, as the 3 hurricanes came through Central Florida. It seemed that every single day was a struggle ... does Home Depot have plywood today? Can I get some TapCons? Maybe I shouldn't schedule this work appointment out of town since it looks like another hurricane is coming..

The real difference for me.. and shall I say a "wake up call" this year.. Is that I had 'the means' to do what it takeso keep myself, my family and my pets safe. I have enough money/credit cards/whatever to evacuate. We have cars. We have carriers for our pets. Many of the people in New Orleans and other areas did not - and that is what is so difficult. I was a zombie for days after Katrina watching the news and simply not being emotionally strong enough to handle it.. So I did what I could financially to the Red Cross and still felt 100 percent helpless. I would have given anything to go in person to help those poor people affected.

My Dad lives in Fort Walton Beach, and is a 'young' 68 years old. When Katrina was approaching, he called me -- literally in tears -- saying that he just couldn't take another hurricane. He was there from Opal and beyond, and had just had enough. He drives cars all over the southeast as his retirement job, and made trips after Katrina to the MS/LA area to deliver cars. He now wants to move out West, when we've spent our entire lives in Florida. He is not an emotional person like me.. usually. He caught me off guard with his response to Katrina.

Frankly, after all this typing, I forgot what my point was. So for everyone reading, just know.. whoever you are, wherever you are, and however you are affected.. you are absolutely, one hundred percent, NOT ALONE.

-Tracie

[MiamiensisWx]

I am somewhat tired of the "means to leave" stuff. Did you see all of those cars flooded in the 9th? ward of NO. I would just bet if the power ball was at 1 billion $$ and they had to get 100 miles inland to but the ticket they could find a way. It's not just the rich (those with "means") that choose to ride out storms. At some point we all have to accept responsibility for our actions or inactions. That's not to say those truely without the means to leave should not have some help to evacuate.

I didn't mean that those "without the means" should not have help to evacuate... sorry if I got a little carried away... I guess it's because of all the bickering of whose fault (UGH!) it is for not helping the Katrina victims... some say the should have helped themselves, others say relief should have been provided to those who were/are poor, others say this, others say that, etc., etc., etc.! It is getting very tiresome to listen to without knowing who is "right" and who is "wrong"... on the other hand, there are probably no "rights" and "wrongs", only the fact known as "personal responsibility" - the one thing other than faith that can help you to make it without help, and the one thing that we may really need, once you think about it.

Sorry for being off-topic... I guess I'm just stressed like everyone is...

[TheShrimper]

People equate a storms stregnth as max. winds associated with it, which needs to be changed. There are other facets, much more important and far reached. Seeing that these winds are rarely realized, it should be drilled into peoples heads that there is a storm surge aspect, a tornado aspect and a flooding aspect. I think the NHC should stress the latter two instead of making the max winds the focal point. The people would be much more informed (the big bend area of FL. during any Panhandle landfall} as to what to expect. As far as classifying a storms stregnth based solely on the Saffir Simpson scale, I think it is time The NHC factors in the other attributes above mentioned, and derives a new way of measuring a storms power.

[skufful]

I'm not sure if you got my gist.

[tronbunny]

My point.. was actually on the subject...

The NHC forecasts might seem like hype, when you're not devastated..
But when you lose everything... you want to blame someone.
the NHC is a scapegoat/target.

Even when you are so inconvenienced by spending 20 hours to go a distance that should only take a couple hours... and your health may be compromised by preparing for a disaster that misses you by a hair but wipes out a neighbor that didn't 'believe'.

The NHC does not put out forecasts based on a political or commercial agenda. But does weigh all advisories against public/individual safety and well-being. It;s the news media, and politicians that decide how to present that data to you, the vulnerable public.

Just how vulnerable are YOU?

[MiamiensisWx]

My point.. was actually on the subject...

The NHC forecasts might seem like hype, when you're not devastated..
But when you lose everything... you want to blame someone.
the NHC is a scapegoat/target.

Even when you are so inconvenienced by spending 20 hours to go a distance that should only take a couple hours... and your health may be compromised by preparing for a disaster that misses you by a hair but wipes out a neighbor that didn't 'believe'.

The NHC does not put out forecasts based on a political or commercial agenda. But does weigh all advisories against public/individual safety and well-being. It;s the news media, and politicians that decide how to present that data to you, the vulnerable public.

Just how vulnerable are YOU?

Oh... I was just referring to what I personally noticed or thought I noticed... don't know why, though...

[TheShrimper]

People need to know WHAT EXACTLY a hurricane is. That is all that needs learned.

[MiamiensisWx]

People equate a storms stregnth as max. winds associated with it, which needs to be changed. There are other facets, much more important and far reached. Seeing that these winds are rarely realized, it should be drilled into peoples heads that there is a storm surge aspect, a tornado aspect and a flooding aspect. I think the NHC should stress the latter two instead of making the max winds the focal point. The people would be much more informed (the big bend area of FL. during any Panhandle landfall} as to what to expect. As far as classifying a storms stregnth based solely on the Saffir Simpson scale, I think it is time The NHC factors in the other attributes above mentioned, and derives a new way of measuring a storms power.

People need to know WHAT EXACTLY a hurricane is. That is all that needs learned.

Agreed! That sums up what I was trying to state. That's all.

[flyingphish]

A great post Mr. Shrimper. We old crackers in S. Fl. chuckle about your topic" here and again" every season. I remember one frustrated fella from the weather channel was all set up for some storm at the Naples Beach Hotel five or six years back. He was all dressed up in a Parka and every thing . Meanwhile the locals just looked "perplexed at the show ." Sure enough ,the great storm(Josephine I think) duck hooked under Naples and ran NE into Ft.Laud. That poor fella in the Parka got no wind or rain. Sorta felt like we should have thrown a bucket of water on him just for effect. Of course the rest of the world saw the big blob on S. Fl., so I guess it is all where you are and what your hearing. Just a quick take on Media Distortion and Hype. Appreciate your posts !

[wlfpack81]

Ok I couldn't read this anymore w/o chiming in. You're right to your opinion but I disagree w/some of these points.

NHC does mention the storm surge potential with hurricanes (just look at how much they focused on this issue w/Katrina and Rita) and have also in recent years alerted public to the problems of inland flooding and the tornado threat further inland. I don't know what sources you've been looking at but I've seen the NHC (and TWC) stress more than just the winds. You're confusing the regular media w/NHC. FNC, MSNBC, CNN etc. as they are the ones who usually hype up the storms and focus in on just the winds and not so much surge, tornado threat.

Now concerning the max winds most of the wind instruments tend to fail as the eye approaches b/c of the strong winds. There's another thread here about why the wind instruments are so wimpy so to speak and a good explanation was given there (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75477). Also when you're talking about a Cat 3, 4 or 5 you have to remember those strongest winds aren't going to extend out like 75 miles. While the swath of 74+mph winds may go out 75 miles those intense 115mph winds of a Cat 3 or 145mph winds of a Cat 4 may only go out 5-10 miles or so from the eye and in a small storm like Charley will be even smaller. Again most wind instruments will clock out well before those winds arrive. Also I doubt many people who are unfortunate enough to be stuck in the eye wall will go out and try to measure themselves.

It's not the NHC's fault that most people in general are too sheltered to come out their box and learn about weather in their region. If I myself as a 2nd grader could get interested in hurricanes (grew up in Hampton Roads, VA) then what's holding other's back from learning (save those in poverty who probably have other important issues on the table like how to get by day to day)? I mean there are a lot of avg middle class people w/access to knowledge in hurricane zones who are clueless about these storms or weather in general. NHC can only do so much to wake up the public to these threats. They put the information out there and try their best to keep people up to date on these storms.

Not saying NHC is perfect b/c no forecast agency or forecaster is but IMO the NHC has done a great job and continue to improve in what they do.

[Weatherfreak14]

i don't think south carolina will ever forget that bully monster named Hugo

Agreed Ilive just down the coast from charlston and I wasen't alive but my parents stayed here.

[Cookiely]

Frankly I'm tired of hearing people say that "they didn't know it was going to be this bad". Give me a break. Unless your living in a cave how could you not be aware of how bad these storms were going to be. If anyone has an answer I would really like to know.