Could a storm like Tip form in the Atlanic Basin.

[wxmann_91]

This is a big one!

That's a cool pic, Calamity!

Where'd you get it? I googled but couldn't find it.

[PTrackerLA]

Funny how 870mb doesn't seem that crazy now that we just had 897mb Rita and 902mb(?) Katrina. We'll never forget 2005 for sure.

[whereverwx]

This is a big one!

That's a cool pic, Calamity!

Where'd you get it? I googled but couldn't find it.

I remember it being posted on the forums a long time ago. I thought it was really interesting because it contained so much information, so I bookmarked it. This is the link.
CAUTION It's a huge file! At 96 pages, it may take a while to load.

[Scorpion]

Rita and Katrina were as close to WPAC typhoons that we can get in the ATL basin. I bet that Hurricane Charley would be able to fit in the eyewall of Tip.

[Aslkahuna]

The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 is the largest known Atl hurricane in size followed by hurricane Carla in 1961 (Carla covered the entire GOM).

Steve

[sponger]

How did they compare to Gilbert? That was the biggest I can remember.

[terstorm1012]

The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 is the largest known Atl hurricane in size followed by hurricane Carla in 1961 (Carla covered the entire GOM).

Steve

Though before radar and sophisticated instruments---the September 1821 East Coast hurricane bought sustained hurricane force winds inland past Philadelphia as it passed just east of New Jersey----it could have been bigger than the 1944 storm.

[Aslkahuna]

Both were larger than Gilbert. The 1821 storm could be larger but it's not possible to tell.

Steve

[JohnTK5]

Both were larger than Gilbert. The 1821 storm could be larger but it's not possible to tell.

Steve

But they were both still much smaller than Tip right.

[SapphireSea]

Take what is say with a grain of salt due to my inexperiance so far. If anyone can point any corrections with facts and sources I would be most glad to correct what I will say and make note. Thank You.



There is a distinct trend with powerful storms coming from supressed troughs and lows. It seems that broader and sheared circulations are quicker to intensify into intense storms when conditions become right. Larger circulation could draw in more moisture than smaller circulations when conditions are ripe causing lagre and intense storms to form.

Katrina was very disorganized and was sheared by NE winds from a strong ridge to the NW, the circulation was also fairy broad. The moment the storm entered a favorable environment it attempted to rapidly deepen before making landfall in florida, then did so after emerging in the gulf becoming a large and very powerful storm.

Rita had no problems in her path, but was expanded and had it's outflow aided by a low to the SW if I recall the data, and was able to attain a near perfect form and condition to reach a staggaring 897mb.

Can it happen? Possibly. WPAC has much higher heat content, but that is just one factor. WPAC also has lower avarage sea level pressures about and plenty of room for formation, and much more moisture despite negative MJO conditions. I think the atlantic can temporarily attain some factors that can trigger a monster storm, and we saw some of that potential with Rita.

Also, there is the ideal eye diameter of 1nm-2.5nm per 50nm of the storm if it's any tighter than that it may be because the eye is collapsing refrenced by claims by some of last minute strengthening of Rita and or Katrina due to extreme tightening of the eye which really was a collapse in structure, and im not sure what a wide eye would translate to, but may result by a interrupted (dry air?/shear?)and possibly failed EWRC refrenced by Typhoon 13W (Jelewat) and even that storm maintained 85KT and mid 950 pressure with the 90nm eye.

Next time a broad circulation begins to develop with favorable conditions it would be good to take note of the progress it makes to perhaps estimate size into the possibility of producing a deeper storm. Basic meteorology would also dictate that storms under the influence of strong ridges would create stronger circulations due to air transporting into the storm violently.

Notes that im sure are being taken for better intensity forcasting.

[Patrick99]

I'll dissent here and say that it could happen, given the right conditions. Unlikely, maybe, but I don't see how it could be counted out.

[oneness]

1979 Typhoon report

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/atcr/197 ... mplete.pdf

[Duffy]

i think i read somewhere, that there were actually two Typhoons in the mid 90's that were actually stronger than Tip

[oneness]

i think i read somewhere, that there were actually two Typhoons in the mid 90's that were actually stronger than Tip

Yeah, a pdf about them.
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/karl/hoarau001.pdf

[oneness]

Also, there is the ideal eye diameter of 1nm-2.5nm per 50nm of the storm if it's any tighter than that it may be because the eye is collapsing refrenced by claims by some of last minute strengthening of Rita and or Katrina due to extreme tightening of the eye which really was a collapse in structure,

This “collapse in structure” occurred in conjunction with a pronounced lurch northward, which became NNW after landfall. The rapid lurch north was very visible on radar, and mirrored the style of a previous northward lurch earlier that day.

i.e.

Rita, Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread; read from fourth last post on page 36, thru to about he bottom of page 41)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 08#1073208

There were other threads in the forum about this sudden jump to the north at that time, plus eye filling in and core becoming disorganised on loops, then quickly reorganising again.

Then, as Rita approached landfall, she was progressing on a steady line NW, towards Sabine pass/Sabine Lake eye landfall. Then another similar severe jump north and immediate eye structure disruption/distortion, with exceptional cold tops forming on the western side in conjunction to vortical induced intensification and uplift.

Rita’s eye intact and moving NW:


Still intact but the inner northern eye wall has developed a curl shape, indicating a large vortex has formed. The eye distorted in response and the last minute jump to the north begins.


The results on IR


Sudden vector change to the north noted from radar loop:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 84#1074484

Radar image of resulting distortion of northern eye wall after the northward jump began. The eye wall had gone strongly elliptical E-W well before it contacted with the land. A re-examination of the radar loop will bare that out.


Here’s the IR image of suddenly blossoming extreme cold tops after the lurch to the north. The drop in pressure from the vortex has induced convective uplift all around the core. This was noted as small increase in central pressure in RECON data as landfall occurred:


Overland:


The bottom-line is that I suspect this second sudden northerly and temporary change in direction was probably also produced by a large vortex in the northern eye wall, like the one which occurred earlier that day. This quickly changed the final landfall point from Sabine Pass, to a south-to-north crossing of the LA coast, instead. The extreme transient evacuation generated by the vortex induced a much lower pressure to the north of the centre of rotation. The storm’s eye immediately fell towards this new low-pressure center, greatly distorting the previously intact eye-wall in the process, just prior to its landfall. The NW then NNW track resumed soon after.

2 cents