Frightening Early Image From Cameron, LA

[Air Force Met]

bttt

[Derek Ortt]

its a legit question

sorry to burst some bubbles here, but it is very possible that some strms in the past weren't cat 4's. It's important to determine this so that we can make better preps in the future for a cat 3

some here could attempt to better learn atmospheric dynamics

[Derek Ortt]

also, Audrey only had a 12 foot storm surge

What I would like to know is the following

1. What flight level wwre the winds taken from during Hurricane Audrey

2. Were there any surface readings

3. What does the SLOSH model say about tidal surge in that area.

#3 s likely the most conclusive as it played a key role in Andrew being upgraded

[jwayne]

its a legit question

sorry to burst some bubbles here, but it is very possible that some strms in the past weren't cat 4's. It's important to determine this so that we can make better preps in the future for a cat 3

some here could attempt to better learn atmospheric dynamics

not to argue, but wouldn't it make better sense to compare the surge from these two "cat 3's" to surge from category 3's that never got to cat 5 status so close to landfall? I think if you do the analysis, it's going to be a no-brainer that storms like rita and katrina are going to have cat 5 surges even if they weaken to cat 3's 24 or 48 hours before landfall.

of course, a possible comeback is "well, Ivan didn't have a 30 ft storm surge and it was a cat 5 in the gulf." so, bottom line is that this all has to be looked at very closely.

[wxmann_91]

Well, Derek, I'll give my two cents:

Audrey was a small and fast moving storm that was strengthening at landfall. These storms tend to not do the "northern GOM fizzle out effect".

Rita was a giant and had been a major hurricane for days. It retained Cat 5 surge and rolled in relatively slowly.

[Derek Ortt]

Most of the storm surge comes from the wind piling up the water along the continental shelf, which is really only a function of wind speeds at the time when the storm moves over the shelf. The surge in the open ocean is typically less than 3 feet due to deep water (which is why Miami and Cayman do not experience these types of surges, the waters are deep just offshore).

Katrina likely produced its high surge because it was a very strong cat 4, possibly a weak 5 when it moved over the shelf water, unlike Ivan which was a borderline 3/4 when it started to move over and Rita was already a 3.

However, what is a fucntion of the intensity farther out is the wave heights. This can add about 3-5 feet to the overall surge total

[jwayne]

Most of the storm surge comes from the wind piling up the water along the continental shelf, which is really only a function of wind speeds at the time when the storm moves over the shelf. The surge in the open ocean is typically less than 3 feet due to deep water (which is why Miami and Cayman do not experience these types of surges, the waters are deep just offshore).

Katrina likely produced its high surge because it was a very strong cat 4, possibly a weak 5 when it moved over the shelf water, unlike Ivan which was a borderline 3/4 when it started to move over and Rita was already a 3.

However, what is a fucntion of the intensity farther out is the wave heights. This can add about 3-5 feet to the overall surge total

now that's a good met explanation. nice job.

[Anonymous]

if that photo is legit, shows how destructive Rita was able maybe that Audrey was not as intense as believed, since it did not do that to Cameron

Derek...one thing that you are forgeting is that Audrey occured in 1957...not 2005. Buildings/towns/coastlines have changed. I actually am surprised the damage is not worse...Audrey was 145 mph, and caused extreme damage in Cameron. Rita was 120 mph...cuased moderate-extensive damage...it all fits.

[baygirl_1]

You can find that picture and more in this slideshow from Yahoo!:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/050925/photos_ts/2005_09_24t235055_450x300_us_rita

[weunice]

Lou, can you give us info on where that picture came from? I am not doubting that Cameron was virtually wiped off the map, but that picture looks a lot like one I saw after the tsunami. I know you would not post something without trying to verify it, but we have seen no images coming out of that area. In fact, supposedly helicopters were not being allowed into that area, and our local news choppers who were doing aerial surveys live yesterday, never did make it to that area even though they were very close to it. Just curious. No matter, we know Cameron was devastated. There is no way it could not have been.

FYI, someone who is from there on a forum I regularly visit said the following:
"That's the corner of Hwy 82 and Hwy 27 in Holly Beach. Take a look at Google maps to see what you think. It won't let you zoom in with the satellite."

[arkess7]

that picture is just horrific....i pray everyone got out.....i wonder if those 3 guys made it?

[tallywx]

its a legit question

sorry to burst some bubbles here, but it is very possible that some strms in the past weren't cat 4's. It's important to determine this so that we can make better preps in the future for a cat 3

some here could attempt to better learn atmospheric dynamics

Derek, you make a good point. After all, Audrey's central pressure at landfall was 946 mb. Unless she was the tiny size of Hurricane Charley, it's EXTREMELY difficult to believe she was carrying 145 mph winds at that time, which is what the current post-track analysis shows.

[Sanibel]

We've learned from Ivan, Katrina, and now Rita that category 5 monsters are contnuing to carry their surge all the way to shore even though the recorded winds at landfall are not that strong. These storms are piling up surge as they hook right and carry the wave-like surge energy in the strong right shoulder of the storm. This right hook pivot point builds the surge up like a funnel effect from the east winds preceding the center bringing shallow water in from the east in front of the stronger ramming winds. Those three trailer men obviously don't study cyclones. They should have been told bluntly - YOU WILL DIE IF YOU STAY HERE.

No chance for a concrete bunker like they have in Bangladesh? They build them in Bangladesh but not here?

[TSmith274]

Audrey killed over 450 people in Louisiana in 1957. Bodies were found miles inland from where they lived. It was terrible.

This season has, IMO, driven the point home that a hurricane that reaches category 5 strength, and then weakens to cat 3 or 4, can largely sustain it's cat 5 storm surge. This season has greatly advanced our ability to forecast storm surge, IMO.

[Mac]

Actually, I don't find the physics behind this phenomenon particularly puzzling. It takes a lot more energy to get a big object moving than it does to keep it moving at the same momentum. Think about pushing a car. If you are on a flat surface, it takes considerably more energy to get the car moving in the first place than it does to keep it moving once it gets going. So I can very easily understand how once a hurricane reaches Cat 5 intensity, it can continue to push a tremendous amount of surge even after its winds diminish to Cat 3.

[FunkMasterB]

FYI, someone who is from there on a forum I regularly visit said the following:
"That's the corner of Hwy 82 and Hwy 27 in Holly Beach. Take a look at Google maps to see what you think. It won't let you zoom in with the satellite."

I had the same thought. It looks more like Holly Beach.

[curtadams]

That picture says nothing about wind speeds because such a small town (a few thousand) would be only 1-story buildings and it's right on the coast. So, at the peak of the storm, it was probably all underwater. That picture is 100% surge/wave damage. If you want to look for evidence of comparative winds in Rita vs. Audrey you've got to go elsewhere.

I can think of three factors in Rita's smaller surge compared to Katrina's (smaller, not small or mild).
1) The MS coast has higher land inland that LA. Water gets trapped on the MS coast but can keep going in LA. In that respect LA is somewhat like open ocean.
2) The N end of both storms would push water W. Much of that would get trapped by the Mississippi sound. In Katrina's case that water was right under the NE eyewall to get shoved on the coast. In Rita's case it sloshed into the west coast of the sound and wasn't under Rita at landfall to reinforce the peak surge.
3) Katrina came almost straight at the coast its last day while Rita was at a very acute angle its last day and then hooked. Katrina's surge build up constantly to focus on one spot. while some of Rita's would have tended to slosh on shore either beforehand or to the left of landfall.

Of course Katrina being bigger and, in her last day, more intense, must figure into it.

[curtadams]

Derek...one thing that you are forgeting is that Audrey occured in 1957...not 2005. Buildings/towns/coastlines have changed. I actually am surprised the damage is not worse...Audrey was 145 mph, and caused extreme damage in Cameron. Rita was 120 mph...cuased moderate-extensive damage...it all fits.

Excuse me? Moderate-extensive damage? There is NOTHING left in that photo. How can damage be more severe than that?

[djtil]

cameron is inland a couple miles........cameron was not "wiped off the map" as many here seem to need to believe.

i dont quite understand the "shock" and even media coverup conspiracies that beach front property was destroyed....of course it was.

[cancunkid]

FYI, someone who is from there on a forum I regularly visit said the following:
"That's the corner of Hwy 82 and Hwy 27 in Holly Beach. Take a look at Google maps to see what you think. It won't let you zoom in with the satellite."

I had the same thought. It looks more like Holly Beach.

I think it is just confusion that got the photo labeled Cameron since Holly Beach is in Cameron Parrish. Maybe?