99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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inotherwords
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#61 Postby inotherwords » Sun Sep 25, 2005 11:52 am

seaswing wrote:Yes, you are absolutely right, but I don't consider Scorpion a meterologist so I don't consider his/her opinion as a forecast. Thats why I think we come here, to see all different points of view. If I were to consider his post as a forecast as to what is impending, I would have to pack up and move to Minnesota every summer.....


You have also been on the board long enough to know which posters have credibility and which do not. We shouldn't assume that everyone visiting this board knows that, and therefore we should all have a responsibility to make sure we word our posts more carefully, particularly if our posts sound like predictions or forecasts even if they technically are not.

I'm just a little weary of certain people I see always trying to stir things up and who never seem to have any support for their remarks. Several seem to enjoy this kind of controversy and tend to encourage it in others, too. I wish this forum had an ignore button because I'd sure use it for a handful of posters who have exhausted my last nerve.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#62 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:02 pm

Okay thank you everyone for info and models concerning that
front. As we go through the week info about the front will become
more and more important!

Keep the updates coming!
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#63 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:05 pm

Image

Convection getting stronger.
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#64 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:05 pm

Roller coaster shear ride for the system as it traverses the Caribbean:

low shear now, then higher south of Hispaniola, then very low around Jamaica, then very high south of Cuba...of course, the shear environment will change over the course of the next few days...and I'd expect less of a "ride" if the system gets going:

Image
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#65 Postby inotherwords » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:08 pm

At this point, NOAA is not even showing it as an area of concern.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif
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#66 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:09 pm

inotherwords wrote:At this point, NOAA is not even showing it as an area of concern.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif


They show it only if it is an invest??
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#67 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:12 pm

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#68 Postby inotherwords » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:26 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
inotherwords wrote:At this point, NOAA is not even showing it as an area of concern.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif


They show it only if it is an invest??


Late yesterday this map showed circled areas in both the caribbean and in the eastern Atlantic as areas to watch that could possibly develop to storms within 36 hrs. This a.m. they just showed the one in the eastern Atlantic. Now they're both gone. I guess at this point they don't think they'll develop but as we know this can always change, and quickly.
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#69 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:43 pm

Why isn't this an invest?
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#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:46 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Why isn't this an invest?


No tropical models (BAMM,BAMD,LBAR,AE98 ) haved initialized yet on that system and invests are started when the models begin to issue runs for a system.
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#71 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Why isn't this an invest?


No tropical models (BAMM,BAMD,LBAR,AE98 ) haved initialized yet on that system and invests are started when the models begin to issue runs for a system.


Just out of curiosity since you have expertise cycloneye, when do
you think we may see an invest with this system?
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#72 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:03 pm

It has to organize more in terms of persisting convection and a surface low to then have the models begin runs and that can trigger an invest.
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#73 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:14 pm

EAST CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTIALLY OR MOSTLY WITH THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.


2 PM Discussion.

Nothing to open eyebrows yet in the discussion about this wave.
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#74 Postby arkess7 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:51 pm

please oh please noooooo!!!!!! just let west florida be spared this year!!!!!!!! :cry:
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#75 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:54 pm

arkess7 wrote:please oh please noooooo!!!!!! just let west florida be spared this year!!!!!!!! :cry:


Nothing's going to west Florida at this time...no need to cry. Just let all land masses be spared the rest of the season.
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#76 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:04 pm

This wave is iffy but worth watching. It has good flaring convection in an area that is becoming climatologically favorable.

It looks 50-50 to me. It is moving way too fast and is too close to South America, but the area ahead is favorable for development at this time of year.

The system definitely has a developed circulation just offshore of Venezuela - which is a sign of cyclogenesis.

It looks like a Central America/Belize-type threat from its track.

Remember Mitchy-poo - But if it dissipates I won't be shocked either...
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#77 Postby seaswing » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:15 pm

Seriously, we should all just chill and keep an eye out. We all know or should know that this is normally the time when we, on the west side of Florida should keep an eye and ear open for disturbances. It is typical even though it has been a very eventful summer. It's our time to look closely, just like every other year and be prepared, just like every other year. No need to get too concerned just yet.
Last edited by seaswing on Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#78 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:19 pm

the wave in carib looks nice though. hope it dont develop cause i could use some time off.

<RICKY>
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#79 Postby AZS » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:21 pm

GFS model is showing someting over Cuba and GOM in early October, i think.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_162.shtml

Sorry if my interpretation in wrong.
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#80 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:22 pm

shouldnt the GFS especially at 162hrs never be taken seriously or am I wrong?

<RICKY>
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