PROBABLY THE NEXT INVEST at 9N/22.5W

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OURAGAN
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PROBABLY THE NEXT INVEST at 9N/22.5W

#1 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:52 pm

Wave near 9 N/22.5W, probaly the next invest
What do tou tkink about it?

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg
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WindRunner
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:54 pm

I don't think it'll be the next invest, but it becoming invest 90L sounds likely. Beyond that, I don't think the models show much from this system.
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#3 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:18 pm

ANOTHER AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING...OR HAS FORMED...IN
THE AREA FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W.
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#4 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:35 pm

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
14N35W AT 25/1200 UTC MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS
BEEN ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST FROM 16N34W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 10N39W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. THIS WAVE AND LOW FEATURE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 16N45W...WITH A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
TO 10N50W. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 53W ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BEING ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
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#5 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:41 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
14N35W AT 25/1200 UTC MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS
BEEN ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST FROM 16N34W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 10N39W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. THIS WAVE AND LOW FEATURE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 16N45W...WITH A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
TO 10N50W. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 53W ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BEING ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.


its possible it could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36-48 hours? wow that is amazing the way they are talking about this system.

<RICKY>
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seaswing
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Re: PROBABLY THE NEXT INVEST at 9N/22.5W

#6 Postby seaswing » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:49 pm

OURAGAN wrote:Wave near 9 N/22.5W, probaly the next invest
What do tou tkink about it?

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg


Still looks busy out there to me :eek:
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abajan
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Re: PROBABLY THE NEXT INVEST at 9N/22.5W

#7 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:57 pm

seaswing wrote:
OURAGAN wrote:Wave near 9 N/22.5W, probaly the next invest
What do tou tkink about it?

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg


Still looks busy out there to me :eek:

That's true but there's an awful lot of shear around too: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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MiamiensisWx

#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:41 pm

Here's the chart showing the actual amounts of shear in the Atlantic Basin...
Image

Here is the chart showing intensification potential over the next several days in the Atlantic Basin... unfavorable conditions are expected to persist in areas of the western and central Atlantic, particularily around Florida and the Bahamas. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to possibly gradually become more favorable in some areas.
Image

P.s.: Here is the source of this information...
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
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#9 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:55 pm

There is a big wave off the africian coast. It looks that could be stan.
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MiamiensisWx

#10 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:58 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:There is a big wave off the africian coast. It looks that could be stan.


Here is the wave off the African coast and the big wave behind it about to exit the coastline soon...
Image
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jhamps10

#11 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:50 pm

I don't think it will make it, too much shear out there right now. Now that Satellite feature in the eastern caribbean, we may have to keep an eye on that, waters out there haven't been touched since Emily, and therefore should be very favorable.
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MiamiensisWx

#12 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:03 am

The first wave in the eastern Atlantic continues to persist... also, a big wave is exiting the African coastline behind it.

*SEE MY SATELLITE PICTURE FROM THE NHC POSTED ABOVE*
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

If upper-level winds would be more favorable, at least one of those waves would probably develop.
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Anthonyl
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Is the area at 30w a wave?

#13 Postby Anthonyl » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:17 am

The NHC has not analysed this area as being a tropical wave can somebody shead some light.
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