99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[seaswing]

Yes, you are absolutely right, but I don't consider Scorpion a meterologist so I don't consider his/her opinion as a forecast. Thats why I think we come here, to see all different points of view. If I were to consider his post as a forecast as to what is impending, I would have to pack up and move to Minnesota every summer.....

You have also been on the board long enough to know which posters have credibility and which do not. We shouldn't assume that everyone visiting this board knows that, and therefore we should all have a responsibility to make sure we word our posts more carefully, particularly if our posts sound like predictions or forecasts even if they technically are not.

I'm just a little weary of certain people I see always trying to stir things up and who never seem to have any support for their remarks. Several seem to enjoy this kind of controversy and tend to encourage it in others, too. I wish this forum had an ignore button because I'd sure use it for a handful of posters who have exhausted my last nerve.

I can certainly relate to your point of view. I just consider the source around here and pay attention to the folks that I believe know what they are talking about. I can't stand trolls and I know they infiltrate boards like this. I am just saying that unless it is a professional met., or the NHC no one should take the word of another poster as reason to pack up and head out of town. I too don't appreciate alarmists but I hope that most of us are adult enough to listen to the experts and heed the warnings they give....Nuff said....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



430 PM update:

This system with its broad area of moisture and convection reminds
me of Dennis prior to its formation. Shear decreases out ahead of this
system, development becomes likely. It has to consolidate. Once
consolidation takes place and a surface low forms this system under
a moist MJO and decreasing shear may intensify quickly.

[Scorpion]

Well I for one am sick of people attacking my predictions when in many instances they come true. I made an amateur forecast for Rita when she was still a TD taking her to Cat 5 in the GOM and heading toward the Houston area as a weakening 3. Now I wasn't exactly right about the track but it wasn't too bad. Now we just have to watch this wave if it consolidates more. If it becomes a TD then all bets are off. Shear is very unpredictable. The general track consensus for October hurricanes is for a northward track toward Cuba. However, this year the climo is different. So we just have to watch.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Given that this system is moving quickly and that a cold front is
expected to dig down later this week, the system may make the NW
carribean in time to sneak by prior to the ridge building in, succumbing
to the cold front and moving NNE later this week. Where it will go if
this takes place is too early to call, but anytime the words "cold front",
"late September", and "tropical disturbance moving through the
Carribean" are put in the same sentence or discussion, there is reason to
watch, especially along the West Coast of Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well I for one am sick of people attacking my predictions when in many instances they come true. I made an amateur forecast for Rita when she was still a TD taking her to Cat 5 in the GOM and heading toward the Houston area as a weakening 3. Now I wasn't exactly right about the track but it wasn't too bad. Now we just have to watch this wave if it consolidates more. If it becomes a TD then all bets are off. Shear is very unpredictable. The general track consensus for October hurricanes is for a northward track toward Cuba. However, this year the climo is different. So we just have to watch.

Scorpion all I wanted to know is the reason why you think this could
pull a Charley in terms of track. My reason for a West Coast danger
would be a cold front and other reasons illustrated in my post
immediately previous to this one. I was simply wondering what reasons
you have. Given that I am on the west coast of FL, I am naturally
concerned whenever "Charley" or "Cold Front" or "disturbance" are
all mentioned in the same sentence.

[wxman57]

This wave is iffy but worth watching. It has good flaring convection in an area that is becoming climatologically favorable.

It looks 50-50 to me. It is moving way too fast and is too close to South America, but the area ahead is favorable for development at this time of year.

The system definitely has a developed circulation just offshore of Venezuela - which is a sign of cyclogenesis.

It looks like a Central America/Belize-type threat from its track.

Remember Mitchy-poo - But if it dissipates I won't be shocked either...

I've been tracking this wave since it moved across Africa. It's actually been moving very slowly, much more slowly than a typical wave - probably closer to 10-12 kts. It's convection is fairly far north now (13N/67W) and it is moving to the WNW. The front approaching the east U.S. coast Tuesday should allow for a weakness in the ridge off the east U.S. coast which could result in more of a NW movement by Tue/Wed toward the NW Caribbean.

The NW Caribbean is a prime development region this time of year, particularly with an active MJO phase. The big question I have is whether the upper-level flow ahead of the front dropping down to the Gulf coast Thursday will be timed right to lift this system northward across Cuba/Florida and up the east coast or if the wave will not move fast enough to make the connection. It's also possible that the front will be weaker than the models are forecasting, which is quite common this time of year. Either way, if the wave is late and the front weaker, there is a good chance that its northward progress could be blocked around western Cuba/southern Florida on Friday.

Once blocked, we have a steering flow pattern just like Katrina and Rita in place. There is no guarantee that TX or LA would be safe with a high pressure to the north of a developing tropical cyclone. If I had to pick an area least likely to be affected it would be the FL Panhandle, though. Unless the wave moves much faster than forecast, I don't see it being able to reach the FL Panhandle between the two fronts.

So, I think that the chances of development are pretty good. We all need to watch this wave very closely and be prepared for yet another hurricane in the Gulf by Friday/Saturday.

Oh, and one 100% certain indicator of development would be the fact that I'm planning to take this Friday off. Every time I plan a Friday off during hurricane season, a hurricane develops.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This wave is iffy but worth watching. It has good flaring convection in an area that is becoming climatologically favorable.

It looks 50-50 to me. It is moving way too fast and is too close to South America, but the area ahead is favorable for development at this time of year.

The system definitely has a developed circulation just offshore of Venezuela - which is a sign of cyclogenesis.

It looks like a Central America/Belize-type threat from its track.

Remember Mitchy-poo - But if it dissipates I won't be shocked either...

I've been tracking this wave since it moved across Africa. It's actually been moving very slowly, much more slowly than a typical wave - probably closer to 10-12 kts. It's convection is fairly far north now (13N/67W) and it is moving to the WNW. The front approaching the east U.S. coast Tuesday should allow for a weakness in the ridge off the east U.S. coast which could result in more of a NW movement by Tue/Wed toward the NW Caribbean.

The NW Caribbean is a prime development region this time of year, particularly with an active MJO phase. The big question I have is whether the upper-level flow ahead of the front dropping down to the Gulf coast Thursday will be timed right to lift this system northward across Cuba/Florida and up the east coast or if the wave will not move fast enough to make the connection. It's also possible that the front will be weaker than the models are forecasting, which is quite common this time of year. Either way, if the wave is late and the front weaker, there is a good chance that its northward progress could be blocked around western Cuba/southern Florida on Friday.

Once blocked, we have a steering flow pattern just like Katrina and Rita in place. There is no guarantee that TX or LA would be safe with a high pressure to the north of a developing tropical cyclone. If I had to pick an area least likely to be affected it would be the FL Panhandle, though. Unless the wave moves much faster than forecast, I don't see it being able to reach the FL Panhandle between the two fronts.

So, I think that the chances of development are pretty good. We all need to watch this wave very closely and be prepared for yet another hurricane in the Gulf by Friday/Saturday.

Oh, and one 100% certain indicator of development would be the fact that I'm planning to take this Friday off. Every time I plan a Friday off during hurricane season, a hurricane develops.

[skysummit]

So, I think that the chances of development are pretty good. We all need to watch this wave very closely and be prepared for yet another hurricane in the Gulf by Friday/Saturday.

So you really think this one has a chance, heh? I guess it'll be another interesting time in our near future. Are any of the models picking it up at all yet?

[Brent]

I've been tracking this wave since it moved across Africa. It's actually been moving very slowly, much more slowly than a typical wave - probably closer to 10-12 kts. It's convection is fairly far north now (13N/67W) and it is moving to the WNW. The front approaching the east U.S. coast Tuesday should allow for a weakness in the ridge off the east U.S. coast which could result in more of a NW movement by Tue/Wed toward the NW Caribbean.

The NW Caribbean is a prime development region this time of year, particularly with an active MJO phase. The big question I have is whether the upper-level flow ahead of the front dropping down to the Gulf coast Thursday will be timed right to lift this system northward across Cuba/Florida and up the east coast or if the wave will not move fast enough to make the connection. It's also possible that the front will be weaker than the models are forecasting, which is quite common this time of year. Either way, if the wave is late and the front weaker, there is a good chance that its northward progress could be blocked around western Cuba/southern Florida on Friday.

Once blocked, we have a steering flow pattern just like Katrina and Rita in place. There is no guarantee that TX or LA would be safe with a high pressure to the north of a developing tropical cyclone. If I had to pick an area least likely to be affected it would be the FL Panhandle, though. Unless the wave moves much faster than forecast, I don't see it being able to reach the FL Panhandle between the two fronts.

So, I think that the chances of development are pretty good. We all need to watch this wave very closely and be prepared for yet another hurricane in the Gulf by Friday/Saturday.

Oh, and one 100% certain indicator of development would be the fact that I'm planning to take this Friday off. Every time I plan a Friday off during hurricane season, a hurricane develops.

I hate you.

[wxman57]

So, I think that the chances of development are pretty good. We all need to watch this wave very closely and be prepared for yet another hurricane in the Gulf by Friday/Saturday.

So you really think this one has a chance, heh? I guess it'll be another interesting time in our near future. Are any of the models picking it up at all yet?

Ok, I definitely think it has a chance. Not much to look at now, but any cluster of thunderstorms which reaches the NW Caribbean this time of year has a very good shot at developing.

[Ivanhater]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

[WeatherEmperor]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

you guys in the panhandle watch this closely. we all know how much you have had the past couple years.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Ugh, can we have like at least 2 weeks off? These darn hurricanes make me have like no life lol. Always stuck to the computer.

[wxman57]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

I wouldn't eliminate the FL Panhandle as possible landfall. I said I thought it had a lower risk than farther west or farther east.

[Ivanhater]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

you guys in the panhandle watch this closely. we all know how much you have had the past couple years.

<RICKY>

oh we will be, hope it just goes poof though

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Everyone from TX to SW FL needs to watch this closely. If that
cold front digs stronger than previously thought, well we have a
West Coast FL threat. If the ridge builds in in time, we have yet another
storm crossing west across the GOM.

I am getting sick of these GOM storms, but we may really have
another one on our hands late week.

[wxman57]

Ugh, can we have like at least 2 weeks off? These darn hurricanes make me have like no life lol. Always stuck to the computer.

Tell me about it! I have over a month of comp days and 4 weeks of vacation that I'll never be able to take. And I only counted the 11-13 hour days on weekends toward my comp days, not the 12 hour shifts all week long since June.

[Ivanhater]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

I wouldn't eliminate the FL Panhandle as possible landfall. I said I thought it had a lower risk than farther west or farther east.

oh ok, hope the chances go down even more

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any indications of ridge and cold front strengths forecasts for this
upcoming week right now on the models?

[WeatherEmperor]

well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

you guys in the panhandle watch this closely. we all know how much you have had the past couple years.

<RICKY>

oh we will be, hope it just goes poof though

what do you personally think will happen with this system? I dont mean to put you on the spot but I just thought I would put you to the test since you are a young rookie met still in training right?

<RICKY>