99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#101 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:24 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well thats not good news, well the fl panhandle is some good news, though i dont know how one can limit a small area this far out

you guys in the panhandle watch this closely. we all know how much you have had the past couple years.

<RICKY>

oh we will be, hope it just goes poof though

what do you personally think will happen with this system? I dont mean to put you on the spot but I just thought I would put you to the test since you are a young rookie met still in training right?

haaa yes, its my first year as a met major....got an A in my first test! yay...well i havnt really been watching this one, but from what ive seen, chances are pretty good for a gulf storm...no clue where it will go if it gets in the gulf..but this looks like it can go poof just as easy as it could develop
<RICKY>

x-y-no · #102 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ok, I definitely think it has a chance. Not much to look at now, but any cluster of thunderstorms which reaches the NW Caribbean this time of year has a very good shot at developing.

I agree. The TCHP in the central and western Caribbean is huge. Given decent upper air conditions, any piece of energy moving in there has a chance to go.

#103 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:27 pm

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THIS AREA... AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... SO ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR

5:30 PM TWO.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #104 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:29 pm

how fast is it moving?

#105 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:32 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:how fast is it moving?

It's been moving about 3-4 degrees longitude per day. Most waves this year moved at 5-6 degrees per day.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #106 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:how fast is it moving?

It's been moving about 3-4 degrees longitude per day. Most waves this year moved at 5-6 degrees per day.

Thank you

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #107 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:36 pm

Wait, so what separates this storm from Earl?

I don't mean to be overly pessimistic, but I just want to know why everyone has so much confidence that this storm will make it, and why some don't.

#108 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:37 pm

Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:Wait, so what separates this storm from Earl?

I don't mean to be overly pessimistic, but I just want to know why everyone has so much confidence that this storm will make it, and why some don't.

ah yes, earl..i remember the 5 day track was for it to come up to my area and be a major i think, then just poof

#109 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:58 pm

You have no idea how much I hate reading this thread ... another freakin' threat to the western GOM.

Wxman57 -- to those who don't know him on this thread -- is one of our solid pro mets. If he says "development possible", it has my attention.

#110 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:04 pm

What I haved done is a first at this forum.As all know when an invest,TD or storm goes up that thread becomes the main source for comments,sat pics and models thread.But looking at the great interest that the members have about this wave in the Caribbean I edited the title to say comments,sat pics,models thread.And speaking of invests this wave if it organizes in the next few days it will deserve one.

Wacahootaman · #111 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:17 pm

Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! : Rolling Eyes

Didnt mean to dis ya Tampa Bay.

The sarcasim was aimed at the "hurricane machine" conspiracy theorists, not you.

However if a major hurricane does hit Tampa this year, I may become a believer in this hurricane machine theory myself!

#112 Postby **wx247** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:17 pm

Portastorm wrote:You have no idea how much I hate reading this thread ... another freakin' threat to the western GOM.

Wxman57 -- to those who don't know him on this thread -- is one of our solid pro mets. If he says "development possible", it has my attention.

You are right on. When wxman57 speaks, I listen.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #113 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:22 pm

Wacahootaman wrote:
Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! : Rolling Eyes

Didnt mean to dis ya Tampa Bay.

The sarcasim was aimed at the "hurricane machine" conspiracy theorists, not you.

However if a major hurricane does hit Tampa this year, I may become a believer in this hurricane machine theory myself!

My apologies...I overreacted a little bit

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #114 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:22 pm

wx247 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:You have no idea how much I hate reading this thread ... another freakin' threat to the western GOM.

Wxman57 -- to those who don't know him on this thread -- is one of our solid pro mets. If he says "development possible", it has my attention.

You are right on. When wxman57 speaks, I listen.

Yup if wxman57 says development possible I get glued to the computer

inotherwords · #115 Postby **inotherwords** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:39 pm

NOAA still doesn't have this on their radar.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Scorpion, even a broken clock is right twice a day. I wouldn't congratulate yourself on what was pretty much a given prediction in an overly warm GOM when conditions were right. I'm not a met but even I could have predicted what you did, but I'm smart enough to keep my mouth shut and lurk while the pro mets and RESPONSIBLE amateurs offer their informed and supported opinions. I don't care to pay much attention to hurricane machine conspirators and trollls and I hope others don't either.

Bocadude85 · #116 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:55 pm

inotherwords said

Scorpion, even a broken clock is right twice a day. I wouldn't congratulate yourself on what was pretty much a given prediction in an overly warm GOM when conditions were right. I'm not a met but even I could have predicted what you did, but I'm smart enough to keep my mouth shut and lurk while the pro mets and RESPONSIBLE amateurs offer their informed and supported opinions. I don't care to pay much attention to hurricane machine conspirators and trollls and I hope others don't either.

I dont get why you guys cant grow up a little bit and just let people post their opinion, you may not like what they say but its a free country and that can say what they please. I dont know scorpion but from what I was able to ascertain he is still a kid in highschool so perhaps you should think about that before bashing him.

inotherwords · #117 Postby **inotherwords** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:05 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:inotherwords said

Scorpion, even a broken clock is right twice a day. I wouldn't congratulate yourself on what was pretty much a given prediction in an overly warm GOM when conditions were right. I'm not a met but even I could have predicted what you did, but I'm smart enough to keep my mouth shut and lurk while the pro mets and RESPONSIBLE amateurs offer their informed and supported opinions. I don't care to pay much attention to hurricane machine conspirators and trollls and I hope others don't either.

I dont get why you guys cant grow up a little bit and just let people post their opinion, you may not like what they say but its a free country and that can say what they please. I dont know scorpion but from what I was able to ascertain he is still a kid in highschool so perhaps you should think about that before bashing him.

Before you start accusing others of immaturity, why don't you scroll back and see what the moderators said? They agreed that people need to exercise a little more self control when it comes to making predictions that could scare people. This does not exempt high school kids from being a little too overzealous. And how is anyone new to this forum to know that Scorpion is "just" a high school kid?

This may be a "free country" but on private discussion boards like this one, the first amendment doesn't apply. What the mods say goes.

Let's be a little more responsible and engage our brains before posting, please, whether we're 14 or 54.

Bocadude85 · #118 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:09 pm

self control is different from making a prediction that a storm could intensify into a category 5 hurricane, I dont recall every seeing any of his posts saying anything like " a monster cat 5 cane is going to slam into a certain city killing everyone and leveling everything in its path" that would be overzealous

AZS · #119 Postby **AZS** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:10 pm

look at the latest GFS, and south Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_102.shtml

inotherwords · #120 Postby **inotherwords** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:12 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:self control is different from making a prediction that a storm could intensify into a category 5 hurricane, I dont recall every seeing any of his posts saying anything like " a monster cat 5 cane is going to slam into a certain city killing everyone and leveling everything in its path" that would be overzealous

Your opinion only. I'd say that making the factually unsupported statement that if this storm goes into the GOM it will LIKELY follow CHARLEY'S path is a bit overzealous, if not irresponsible.

Anyway, I've expressed my opinion and it should be clear. No need to flog a dead horse. Some of you might just have a lower tolerance point for junk posts in a forum like this than I do.

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