Who is your favorite NHC forecaster?

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Who do you think writes the best discussions at the NHC?

Dr. Lixion Avila
12
11%
Dr. Jack Beven
8
7%
James L. Franklin
8
7%
Dr. Richard Knabb
3
3%
Dr. Richard Pasch
2
2%
Stacy Stewart
77
70%
 
Total votes: 110

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wxmann_91
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Who is your favorite NHC forecaster?

#1 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:11 am

First of all, I'd like to thank all the NHC forecasters for all their hard work they put into every advisory to warn the public. If you are reading this topic, well don't be sad if you have the least votes. :lol: BTW does anybody think this is a stupid topic?

Well anyway, I personally think Stewart.

I say Stewart because he always puts a lot of stuff in his discos. He always has the disco in an organized manner, including what he thinks will happen, and (even more), an alternative scenario just in case, and a disclaimer that TC's can deviate from the forecast track and intensity.

Avila's discussions IMHO are too short and his forecasts are too conservative, and instead of following a trend and lowering the intensity slowly, he usually changes it suddenly. He did that twice this year, once it held true, once it did not. Ditto for Knabb.

Pasch or Beven (I always get these two confused), well one of them likes to add humor into their discos (which I like), and one of them gets technical, like Stewart, though not as technical.

Franklin is my second favorite, I like his humor sometimes and he puts some thought into his discos once in a while also.

So what do you think? Feel free to explain why as well.
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#2 Postby gilbert88 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 12:47 am

They all do their job, and that's what matters. They are forecasters not journalists or stand-up comedians.
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#3 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:14 am

They all do their jobs, yes, but I enjoy Stacy Stewart's discussions the best. They are very indepth. Avila's tend to be very terse, though he's opened up a little which is surprising, but welcomed.

(you can tell I have no social life---as I sit around and read Hurricane Center discussions for fun!)

If you're reading this Stacy, you've got a small fan club.

Even JB likes Stacy. LOL :lol:
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#4 Postby HurryKane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:27 am

Stewart, hands down.

*squee*
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:35 am

I think Franklin gets my vote, as that famed discussion earlier this year will be mentioned for a while, at least on this board if nowhere else. But Stewart and Avila are very close behind.
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#6 Postby TampaFl » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:38 am

WindRunner wrote:I think Franklin gets my vote, as that famed discussion earlier this year will be mentioned for a while, at least on this board if nowhere else. But Stewart and Avila are very close behind.



Which one was that??
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#7 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:46 am

thses results are shocker, lol. this forumn could be renamed the Stacy Stewart fan club. i voted for stewart, the best is when he does a disco right after avial and he corrects avila.
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#8 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:47 am

TampaFl wrote:
WindRunner wrote:I think Franklin gets my vote, as that famed discussion earlier this year will be mentioned for a while, at least on this board if nowhere else. But Stewart and Avila are very close behind.



Which one was that??


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8

FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.


IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.


:roflmao:
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#9 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:48 am

I love Stewart... always has the most detailed discussions. :D
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#10 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:50 am

Brent wrote:
TampaFl wrote:
WindRunner wrote:I think Franklin gets my vote, as that famed discussion earlier this year will be mentioned for a while, at least on this board if nowhere else. But Stewart and Avila are very close behind.



Which one was that??


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8

FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.


IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.


:roflmao:


good research brent, thanks
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#11 Postby nequad » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:50 am

Lixion would be the least favorite...although the road he has taken to get where he is has been tough. (Cuabn born). Much respect for him, but still my least favorite forecaster at NHC.

Stewart and Franklin tie for first.
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Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:57 am

Avila, not even close
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#13 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Avila, not even close


I agree 1000%. I really don't like it when he has the desk. The conference calls are way too quick. Stewart (attititude aside) takes his time during the calls. He (Stewart) may take 15 minutes to do the call. He gives a LOT of reasoning and tries to make you understand WHY he is forecasting what he is. Avila is a "wham bam...thanks ya ma'am" type of guy. One call last week took 3 minutes for his part. He just says "the reasoning has already been talked about...here are my forecast points."

He also threw out the GFS early one when it was pointing to the LA/TX border. Never even considered it.
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#14 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:13 pm

my vote goes for Stewart.

<RICKY>
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#15 Postby nequad » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:25 pm

He also threw out the GFS early one when it was pointing to the LA/TX border. Never even considered it.



It's amazing how often this happens with many forecasters. They just drop it (GFS) like a bad habit without really examining the model run. The GFS has been better this season than most people give it credit for. But oh well.
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#16 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:44 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Avila, not even close


I agree 1000%. I really don't like it when he has the desk. The conference calls are way too quick. Stewart (attititude aside) takes his time during the calls. He (Stewart) may take 15 minutes to do the call. He gives a LOT of reasoning and tries to make you understand WHY he is forecasting what he is. Avila is a "wham bam...thanks ya ma'am" type of guy. One call last week took 3 minutes for his part. He just says "the reasoning has already been talked about...here are my forecast points."

He also threw out the GFS early one when it was pointing to the LA/TX border. Never even considered it.


I don't understand who you are giving props too. You say you agree with Derek, but than you seem to say you like what Stewart does better than Avila.
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#17 Postby Kennethb » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:08 pm

I will vote for Jack Beven. I went to high school with him and know that he is very dedicated to his job and is thorough on his analysis, discussions, and forecasts.
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#18 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:17 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Avila, not even close


I agree 1000%. I really don't like it when he has the desk. The conference calls are way too quick. Stewart (attititude aside) takes his time during the calls. He (Stewart) may take 15 minutes to do the call. He gives a LOT of reasoning and tries to make you understand WHY he is forecasting what he is. Avila is a "wham bam...thanks ya ma'am" type of guy. One call last week took 3 minutes for his part. He just says "the reasoning has already been talked about...here are my forecast points."

He also threw out the GFS early one when it was pointing to the LA/TX border. Never even considered it.


I don't understand who you are giving props too. You say you agree with Derek, but than you seem to say you like what Stewart does better than Avila.


Color me confused as well. :lol:

Overall I just don't like Avila. No details to what he says... "the forecast has not changed"

whereas, Stewart would have two paragraphs about just that...

:roll:
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#19 Postby SouthernWx » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:23 pm

While I have immense respect for each and every hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, my fav has to also be Stacy Stewart.

Perry W.
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#20 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:55 pm

I misunderstood him...I thought he was saying Avila wasn't even close. I see what he's saying now... :oops:

:D :D

As far as their forecasting ability...they are all too close to call. As far as their reasoning...I don't like Avila because he never gives any :wink:
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