NHC FAILED TERREBONNE PARISH COASTAL RESIDENTS!!!!!

[gk1]

I have tooted a horn for the NHC this year and in the past. They have done a great job of forecasting and warning us of threats. This time; however, I feel that the hurricane warning was not properly placed on areas of the LA. coast. Terrebonne Parish (Houma, LA) recieved a 9 foot storm surge, but this area was only under a TS Warning. Maybe the wording of these warnings need revising. A lot a the residents in that area normally leave when a hurricane warning is issued, but few left this time. Parish officials report flooding in areas which have not flooded in decades. Nearly 15,000 homes are flooded. No lost of life has occured. Sorry, but a 9-foot Surge warrants more than TS Warnings!!!

[jhamps10]

I'm not wanting to be mean here but, They issue Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warnings on Winds mainly, not based on storm surge.

[MWatkins]

I have tooted a horn for the NHC this year and in the past. They have done a great job of forecasting and warning us of threats. This time; however, I feel that the hurricane warning was not properly placed on areas of the LA. coast. Terrebonne Parish (Houma, LA) recieved a 9 foot storm surge, but this area was only under a TS Warning. Maybe the wording of these warnings need revising. A lot a the residents in that area normally leave when a hurricane warning is issued, but few left this time. Parish officials report flooding in areas which have not flooded in decades. Nearly 15,000 homes are flooded. No lost of life has occured. Sorry, but a 9-foot Surge warrants more than TS Warnings!!!

This is yet another example of a general and complete lack of understanding about what the NHC does.

Did terrabone parrish experience sustained winds of Hurricane strength?

No.

So then how did the NHC fail by not issuing a hurricane warning? Hurricane warnings...are COSTAL warnings for winds in excess of 74MPH. They have nothing to do with flooding.

Terrabone parrish had an outer rainband sit on top of them for hours and hours...and some weakened leeves failed.

Inland flood warnings were in effect the entire event...but even so...the NHC did mention this could be a problem.

This was in the official forecast for the previous 8 to 10 advisories from the NHC...again...not sure what they missed:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITHLARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TOTHE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

And the New Orleans NWS handled this information as well...in the product you probablt didn;t see...the local Hurricane Statement...from Friday Morning...flooding was no surprise:

...AREAS AFFECTED...
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES

ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST
TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...
PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA

IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE.

So...while I feel bad that these good folks have experienced flooding...and we spoke with one of them during the landfall Saturday morning...your anger is misdirected. You cannot blame the NHC for the flooding....it was clearly anticipated.

MW

[brunota2003]

Im sorry we are having to deal with these ignorent posts, sorry for the people who i may have offended to, but if your going to try to shoot down the NHC, please first make sure you have your ducks in a row... but for future reference here's another one: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 76fe8ce72f

[Mac]

Absolutely ridiculous. If you live in a low-lying area that you know is prone to flooding, and you know that there is a hurricane in the GOM, and you also know you are in the cone, then get your butt to high ground. If you don't evacuate, and decide to ride it out instead, then accept some damn responsibility for your own actions and stop looking for a friggin' scapegoat. YOU chose to live on the coast. YOU chose to ignore warnings. YOU chose to not evacuate.

YOU have YOU to blame. Deal with it.

[WeatherEmperor]

oh come on please dont go there with NHC bashing again. That is not what is needed right now.

<RICKY>

[milankovitch]

Whether they stayed out of ignorance or not doesn't matter, the question should be how can we better inform these people so that lives can be saved. I don't think a surge warning product would be a bad idea. So and so county is under a tropical storm warning and maximum expected storm is X feet.

[SouthernWx]

Not trying to bash anyone.....but no one in Terrebonne Parish should have been surprised by the significant storm surge; at least no one who's ever lived there while a major hurricane passed inland to the west.

Look....in an area such as the northern Gulf coast (and the Florida west coast is in the same situation), if a strong hurricane.....especially a large and intense hurricane passes to your west, you'd better be prepared for tidal flooding and storm surge...regardless of whether a hurricane warning is posted or not. The waters are just too shallow offshore.
A couple weeks ago while traveling through the Panhandle, I was stunned by the storm surge damage in towns such as Apalachicola (and yes, I spent a nice quiet night at the Best Western there) and Carrabelle...

When I asked the lady desk clerk which hurricane caused the damage (piles of debris and destroyed homes only yards from the motel, she replied "some by Ivan, some by Katrina, but most caused by Dennis"

PW

[gk1]

I went back a read the defination for Hurricane Warning. It states that a hurricane warning can be and remain in affect if tides and waves are expected to remain high. Check it out of the NHC web site. I did research before posting. Another incorrect statement you made is that a feederband caused flooding. It was a NINE foot storm surge. This was verified by the Parish President and Emergency Engineers. Nine foot storm surge usually occur with direct hits from Cat. 2 storms. I am not trying to bash you and maybe my lead statement was too harsh on the NHC, but people react diffently from a TS Warning to a Hurricane Warning. Residents in that area normally leave when a Hurricane Warning is issued; however, with Rita expected to hit Texas and no hurricane warning being issued, it left those residents thinking only TS effects would be manageable. Areas that did not Flood for Andrew, flooded in Terrebonne Parish.

[FunkMasterB]

The bottom line is, it's really, really hard to predict storm surge well away from landfall. For example, Lily hit Abbeville LA head on. It went straight up Vermillion Bay. Abbeville got lots of wind damage, no storm surge. Hurricane Audrey hit Sabine Pass just like Rita (but Audrey had winds of 140 mph) and the storm surge stopped just south of Abbeville. But Rita caused 10-15 feet of water in Abbeville.

I agree with the original poster that there wasn't a lot of warning for areas east of Vermillion Bay in regards to storm surge. I don't blame the NHC, however, I blame the media. In order to reach the most citizens, and to instill in them the seriousness of the situation, the media has to get the word out. The media was almost entirely focused on Houston/Galveston.

Finally, I must agree that the people who live in Houma and areas south certainly have to use some common sense. They live in a swamp. Big hurricane coming.

[gk1]

Really, I have stated in the past, has done a great job. I guess when it hits close to home your eyes really get opened. It is however, the NHC to get the word out. The media only reads the warnings as stated by the NHC. Normally, they over warn the coastal areas, but in Katrina and Rita's case, the size was as important as intensity. I do agree with the post they stated people in the low-line areas that normally flood should leave, but this surge went a lot further inland and the forecast from local NWS called for a much smaller surge.

[brunota2003]

I went back a read the defination for Hurricane Warning. It states that a hurricane warning can be and remain in affect if tides and waves are expected to remain high. Check it out of the NHC web site. I did research before posting. Another incorrect statement you made is that a feederband caused flooding. It was a NINE foot storm surge. This was verified by the Parish President and Emergency Engineers. Nine foot storm surge usually occur with direct hits from Cat. 2 storms. I am not trying to bash you and maybe my lead statement was too harsh on the NHC, but people react diffently from a TS Warning to a Hurricane Warning. Residents in that area normally leave when a Hurricane Warning is issued; however, with Rita expected to hit Texas and no hurricane warning being issued, it left those residents thinking only TS effects would be manageable. Areas that did not Flood for Andrew, flooded in Terrebonne Parish.

From The NHC:

A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force

Thats only AFTER a hurricane warning is issued, not before... So, no, you didnt have all your ducks in a line...
Not relevent, but...:

Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

[FunkMasterB]

It is however, the NHC to get the word out. The media only reads the warnings as stated by the NHC.

Oh I agree. I think the NHC did get the word out in their warnings. They warned of tidal surges all along the Louisiana coast. I'm not aware if they gave out specific estimates though. I'm sure someone can dig up the exact warnings that were delivered.

[Doc Seminole]

Listening to Max Mayfield testifying before a Senate Committee on CSpan I believe that there may be some changes to the way they do forecasts in the future. Nothing definite that I heard though.

A Hurricane warning is for winds but most of the Gulf Coast from Mississippi through Louisiana has been destroyed by surge. In the future there may be Surge warnings also not just surge forecasts.

By the way, even though Hurricane Francis landed 200 miles south of my location last year, the barrier island here was under mandatory evacuation. Not sure what was done as far as evacuation notices in Louisiana but heck the NWS forecast of the surge would have scared my behind outa there.

Doc Seminole

[Brent]

This cannot be a serious post.

People cannot be this idiotic(or maybe they can?)

Let's think about this scenario: Your east of the eye in an onshore flow and your Parish is barely above sea level for the most part... meaning the surge will have no problem reaching you.

Didn't people see St. Marks, FL after Dennis? They were just as far east and got inudated

Mobile, Alabama-flooded by the surge in Katrina, well east of the eye.

Some people never cease to amaze me.

[gk1]

maybe I was to harsh. The decision to leave must be the individuals responsibily. I sure, it is obvious, that the warnings are not be heeded by a lot of LA. folks. I feel, however, since Storm Surge kills more people from flooding than a hurricane's winds, more thought should be given to surge factors.

[wxmann_91]

Well I say both sides have good points.

Since I've never lived in hurricane zones, I'd say that I definately wouldn't take TS warnings as seriously as hurricane warnings, even if I was in an area prone to storm surge and on the side where winds would blow surge onshore.

So I think that the NHC did underestimate how far east Rita's eye would make landfall, and the extent of surge to the east (just as they did for Dennis). Remember that the initial hurricane watches extended only as far east as Cameron, and they could only extend east slowly to avoid any mass panic. Cameron was on the edge of the cone of uncertainty initially. And, with the breakpoints where they are, if they'd extended the hurricane warnings east of Morgan City, the whole entire city of New Orleans would panic. The large windfield of the hurricane complicated matters, like in Katrina, where hurricane force wind gusts extended all the way to Pensacola, but warnings only reached the FL/AL border.

The NHC gives their products to the entire public, and thus, they are conservative to prevent mass panic and confusion. Don't forget that they are humans and thus, like us, though they are experts, make mistakes. It happens, and remember, they are always under an extreme amount of criticism and pressure to do their best, and in times like this year, they lose a lot of sleep, working overtime, under pressure and under a time constraint, knowing that what they write, whether it is right or not, can save or threaten lives.

To say that gk1 is an idiot is idiotic itself. But perhaps we all sometimes need to remember to NEVER take weather forecasting for granted, weather is incredibally unpredictable. Always be prepared for surprises.

[FunkMasterB]

Didn't people see St. Marks, FL after Dennis? They were just as far east and got inudated

Mobile, Alabama-flooded by the surge in Katrina, well east of the eye.

Not that I'm defending these people, but this seems a little overboard.

I follow hurricanes more than the average person and I have no idea what St. Marks, FL is or what you're talking about. I doubt the Cajuns down in the bayou do either. As for Mobile, it was still closer to the eye than Houma was, and Katrina was a bigger storm. Even then, you're expecting these fisherman and oil people to get out a map and do the math? They should, but they won't. They need a clear and unambiguous warning to get the hell out (some still won't go of course).

What they WILL do is go on past results based on past hurricanes. And this surge, from a weak Cat 3, was somewhat unexpected. We need to figure out why. I'm in the camp that says it's because Rita was a wide storm and was previously a Cat 5.

I'm not excusing their ignorance entirely. But part of any hurricane warning system has to take into account that you really have to hit people over the heads with this stuff. Local officials also have to step up and make it happen.

[LSU]

As I've said again and again, the NHC has failed Louisiana in regards to Rita. Yeah, maybe our complaints are illogical and unfounded as all of you outside of Louisiana say. But why is it that no LA residents are praising the NHC this time around? We've done it for all previous storms, including the much more destructive Katrina. Is it that we're just stupid? Is it because the media did not relate all of the NHC information? Is it because the leader of the NHC was doing interviews during the days before landfall and only talking about Texas?

[Doc Seminole]

Always be prepared for surprises.

That's the key...... and unfortunately there is no B.A. or B.S. degree available in Common Sense

We are becoming a nation dependent on the government to do ALL of our thinking.

Doc Seminole