99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#121 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:14 pm

AZS wrote:look at the latest GFS, and south Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_102.shtml

Interesting GFS run. Are there any other models that show a similar situation?

<RICKY>

cinlfla · #122 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:20 pm

look at the latest GFS, and south Florida:

Saw that but had not had a chance to post about it yet. It looks like its about 6 or 7 days out, I'm not sure which disturbance its picking up on.

wxmann_91 · #123 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:22 pm

Wow, 7 pages for something that's not even an INVEST!!! :eek:

WeatherEmperor wrote:
AZS wrote:look at the latest GFS, and south Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_102.shtml

Interesting GFS run. Are there any other models that show a similar situation?

<RICKY>

Only the MM5 develops this near the Yucatan channel after curving Rita back out over the GOM.

Many of the other models don't develop this thing or develop this after it moves into the EPAC.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #124 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:39 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This system is entering a very favorable environment with less shear, moist MJO, and high octane waters with high and deep SSTs. As
wxmann57 mentioned earlier, development is possible. In my
opinion given the aforementioned conditions
development is likely, and rapid development is strongly possible.

For these reasons I remain vigilant to this wave. It is very large and
very moist. Environment as described earlier is highly conducive for
development.

#125 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:42 pm

I posted this earlier in the first pages of thread but I say it again.Anyone who wants to post a forecast about this wave of course can do so but that forecast then has to be posted with a disclaimer. Also a forecast has to have details to backup what you are forecasting.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #126 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:42 pm

Stationary front off FL West Coast by Wednesday according to
TAFB:

JTD · #127 Postby **JTD** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:50 pm

What's the TCHP like in the Eastern/Western Carribbean? Since the area has been largely untouched by our monster 'canes this years it's got to be fairly high. However, I would assume that if a storm were to enter the GOM, it would immediately suffer from the upwelling of Katrina and Rita and weaken? Is this wrong?

To me the TCHP now would only support monster 'canes in the Carribbean and off the east coast of Florida/Georgia.

MzShell · #128 Postby **MzShell** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:I posted this earlier in the first pages of thread but I say it again.Anyone who wants to post a forecast about this wave of course can do so but that forecast then has to be posted with a disclaimer. Also a forecast has to have details to backup what you are forecasting.

Unless the screen name has Mod/Analyst or Pro.Met. under their names, I dont regard it as a forcast. Merely an opinion/prediction.

Patrick99 · #129 Postby **Patrick99** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:37 pm

ROFLMAO......

......I think the GFS smacks us with *every* storm at some point during its runs. If the GFS was always accurate, Miami wouldn't even be on the map today.

How often have we read "GFS shows ______ in the vicinity of S. FL 6 days out "

Website · #130 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:42 pm

Patrick99 wrote:ROFLMAO......

......I think the GFS smacks us with *every* storm at some point during its runs. If the GFS was always accurate, Miami wouldn't even be on the map today.

How often have we read "GFS shows ______ in the vicinity of S. FL 6 days out "

It does the same thing with epic blizzards here during the winter at 15-16 days out. If everyone had verified last year, we would have had feet of snow on the ground from December til April.

Patrick99 · #131 Postby **Patrick99** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:45 pm

Brent wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:ROFLMAO......

......I think the GFS smacks us with *every* storm at some point during its runs. If the GFS was always accurate, Miami wouldn't even be on the map today.

How often have we read "GFS shows ______ in the vicinity of S. FL 6 days out "

It does the same thing with epic blizzards here during the winter at 15-16 days out. If everyone had verified last year, we would have had feet of snow on the ground from December til April.

Oh yeah - I actually remember all those big Southern snow storms that never verified.

#132 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:53 pm

interesting wave that the GOM may be dealing with down the road, although, still way too early to say at this point.

#133 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:51 pm

EAST CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

8 PM Discussion.

Not much to say about the wave at the discussion.

jhamps10 · #134 Postby **jhamps10** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:57 pm

All I am going to say is gee diddn't Charley start out right there? (Please correct me if I am wrong)

#135 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:07 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, 7 pages for something that's not even an INVEST!!!

WeatherEmperor wrote:
AZS wrote:look at the latest GFS, and south Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_102.shtml

Interesting GFS run. Are there any other models that show a similar situation?

<RICKY>

Looks to me like the European takes it to the tip of the Yucatan and develops it some.

Only the MM5 develops this near the Yucatan channel after curving Rita back out over the GOM.

Many of the other models don't develop this thing or develop this after it moves into the EPAC.

Scott_inVA · #136 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:16 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This system is entering a very favorable environment with less shear, moist MJO, and high octane waters with high and deep SSTs. As
wxmann57 mentioned earlier, development is possible. In my
opinion given the aforementioned conditions
development is likely, and rapid development is strongly possible.

For these reasons I remain vigilant to this wave. It is very large and
very moist. Environment as described earlier is highly conducive for
development.

Maybe I'm just looking for a break in all this :wink:

but M/U atmosphere looks totally hostile to Invest 98 getting to the Eastern US, let alone GOM.

Scott

#137 Postby **seaswing** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:17 pm

Inotherwords:
Just wondering....where is Nokomis?

#138 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:21 pm

Maybe I'm just looking for a break in all this but M/U atmosphere looks totally hostile to Invest 98 getting to the Eastern US, let alone GOM.

Scott

He is talking about another possible invest in the Eastern Caribbean not 98L

Scott_inVA · #139 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:27 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Maybe I'm just looking for a break in all this but M/U atmosphere looks totally hostile to Invest 98 getting to the Eastern US, let alone GOM.

Scott

He is talking about another possible invest in the Eastern Caribbean not 98L

Gotcha. E Carib better climo but still same issues in m/u atmos.

Scott

#140 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 10:13 pm

I'll answer for inotherwords in case he doesn't see this. He can expound further if he wishes. Nokomis is in SW FL just south of Sarasota and northwest of Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.

Lynn

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