West Coast of FL and Tampa Bay So Far Spared but...

[canefanjon]

i tell you what though...im here inbetween alva and labelle..and this must be GODs country because we have lucked out with nothing here....now to move into the cape.....hmmmm. say some prayers...im sure we`ll need them after this year...

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

due to possible eastern caribbean wave threat to Caribbean and eastern GOM, bump

[Patrick99]

I'm not letting my guard down. We're just as likely to get hit in October as we are in August or September. Perhaps even more so.

[gatorcane]

I'm not letting my guard down. We're just as likely to get hit in October as we are in August or September. Perhaps even more so

.

Indeed S. Florida has a higher threat of getting hit from storms approaching from the south then the east. September and October are the busiest months

[Cookiely]

Tampa's chance of being struck by a major hurricane are not any more today than they were this time last year, the year before or the month after they were struck the last time. Some people just don't get it but sorry to say your odds don't increase if you haven't been hit nor do they decrease if you have. Statistics and probabilities plain and simple. If Tampa is "heads" and the rest of the country is "tails" you send 20 hurricanes and they all hit "tails." The odds for Tampa when 21 comes around haven't changed they are still 50-50.

Exactly. We pour umpteen million dollars into New Orleans and the odds are the same that they will be struck by a hurricane next year. Hurricanes don't have memories. This makes me sick to my stomach.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With cold fronts digging down late season we do experience
storms during fall with great frequency. Luckly most have been
weak TSs or Cat 1s; no majors yet in this cycle

[arkess7]

With cold fronts digging down late season we do experience
storms during fall with great frequency. Luckly most have been
weak TSs or Cat 1s; no majors yet in this cycle

and we hope and pray it stays that way.........stay away, stay away from tampa bay

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With cold fronts digging down late season we do experience
storms during fall with great frequency. Luckly most have been
weak TSs or Cat 1s; no majors yet in this cycle

and we hope and pray it stays that way.........stay away, stay away from tampa bay

Yup.

[SouthernWx]

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm impact the west coast of FL

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay was late October in 1921 although several minimal hurricanes and tropical storms have impacted them over the years.

Thoughts and comments welcome

I'm not attempting to frighten anyone.......but if I lived anywhere in southern or central Florida, I'd keep my eyes peeled toward the Caribbean between now and at least Halloween....possibly even Thanksgiving.

The combination of near record sst's and a record pace hurricane season is quite disconcerting to me. We've already witnessed near cat-5 hurricanes in July.......two sub-905 mb cat-5 monsters in the GOM.....the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928.....and in my honest opinion, it isn't ending anytime soon (2005 also becomes the first Atlantic hurricane season of record to witness two sub-915 mb hurricanes....and this is the first time we've ever experienced cat-5 hurricanes THREE years in a row

Southern Florida climatologically is more likely to experience a major hurricane in October than in August.....and the TCHP maps south of Cuba and around Jamaica are boiling. It won't surprise me to see a "Mitch-type" monster spawned down there......and the last time a major cane slammed Florida in October was waay back in 1950 (the historical return period for a major October hurricane there is once every 10-15 years.....so saying Florida is overdue for an October major hurricane is an understatement).

I warned folks in early June we would likely see a mega-monster cat-5 this season.....and warned a record breaking active season was possible; IMO 50/50 odds...and we've already tied the number of named storms to occur before October 1 (17); so please take me seriously. I believe there's a much above normal chance of a powerful October hurricane in the Caribbean.....and a much above normal chance of it slamming into south Florida.

Perry

[Brent]

South Florida's best chance to get a hurricane IS from the south... not the east like Andrew.

[Deb321]

With cold fronts digging down late season we do experience
storms during fall with great frequency. Luckly most have been
weak TSs or Cat 1s; no majors yet in this cycle

I wish you lots of luck. I live on the East Coast and we got hit 2 times last year. I know it is likely we could get hit again so I am just holding my breath until the season ends. I think as far as hurricanes go we have seen more than enough devastation this year. Seeing all this damage is heartbreaking and it makes me wonder how our Gov. Jeb survived last year being hit by four hurricanes in 7 weeks. This has to be labeled The Season from He** and to think next year could be the same.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I think instead of wondering about odds,statistics and all we need to worry about other things. Tampa just needs to be prepared like everyone else. The fact is that it has been a above normal season!. Yet anywere in the USA has a low chance of being hit. I do agree Tampa's chances are higher because of increased activity. Tampa could be hit this year, next year or in 50 years. All and all we need to be ready in Tampa to evacuate people and prepare for a Cat 3 or higher! Because the fact is its possible for it to happen. No one really knows when. Just be ready everyone. I have scary gut feeling Tampa will be hit almost by suprise. I just get a feeling that since its been the most active season the last couple years and like everywhere but west florida gets it, it just makes ya think they are do someday! Just be ready!

Matt

[arkess7]

I agree!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Why are we saying West coast has been spared? What happened to Charley? Ad forget the rest of SFL...Frances and Jeanne Gave us a friggin beating...I do agree with the Mitch type Scenario though...Ive been saying for a while that the W Carribean is way to hot right now..

[O Town]

Why are we saying West coast has been spared? What happened to Charley? Ad forget the rest of SFL...Frances and Jeanne Gave us a friggin beating...I do agree with the Mitch type Scenario though...Ive been saying for a while that the W Carribean is way to hot right now..

I agree. I guess they are meaning this year. But the folks around here are still recovering from the 3 from last year. My back neighbor just got the foundation laid for her new house. The old one had a massive oak fall and take off the back of her house during Charley. And the whole east coast is suffering with bad erosion problems. So no more. We need to recover from 2004 first.

[arkess7]

Why are we saying West coast has been spared? What happened to Charley? Ad forget the rest of SFL...Frances and Jeanne Gave us a friggin beating...I do agree with the Mitch type Scenario though...Ive been saying for a while that the W Carribean is way to hot right now..

yea we are talking about this year......believe me all those last year hurricanes are still fresh in my mind too

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jeanne did serious damage to parts of my roof and neighborhood.

The combined impacts of Frances and Jeanne were like one category
2 hurricane striking.

[flhurricaneguy]

both Jeanne and frances came from the east last year and made a huge impact in port saint lucie. Are they considered rare?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

both Jeanne and frances came from the east last year and made a huge impact in port saint lucie. Are they considered rare?

Well they happen pretty frequently:
Erin 95, Jerry 95, Katrina 05 struck east/southeast FL, just with different
locations and intensities. 2004 had ssts packed to the brim and jeanne and
frances got really strong

[gatorcane]

bump