99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#141 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 10:18 pm

the wave doesnt look good right now. Looks like its lost alot of convection. Perhaps it could reflare up during the day tomorrow.

<RICKY>

#142 Postby **Starburst** » Sun Sep 25, 2005 11:31 pm

Great this is all we need now :roll:

sma10 · #143 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 12:31 am

Starburst wrote:Great this is all we need now

Perhaps a tad too early to start stressing

vaffie · #144 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:40 am

I won't even be able to get back to Houston until Tuesday at the earliest, and I'm already very concerned by the 7:15 satellite picture that just became available...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#145 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 4:10 am

Yes during the few hours of the eclipse it is looking much better.

Thunder44 · #146 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 4:13 am

Not much change from TPC:

674
ABNT20 KNHC 260858
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Coredesat · #147 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 4:13 am

The GFS continues to forecast weaker shear over the next day or two, so this could be one to watch if this latest burst can sustain itself.

Nimbus · #148 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:33 am

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS]

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Have to look at the visibles when I get back from shopping.

Wacahootaman · #149 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:53 am

Its baaaaack! :eek:

#150 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 6:01 am

Last 2 runs of the GFS (0z and 6z) develop the system and take it into the western GOM to ... ahem ... Texas next week.

arlwx · #151 Postby **arlwx** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 6:33 am

After having spent the weekend chilling out at an unrelated event, I think that my chilling out (on this) should continue at least for the next 48 hours-at least unless NHC starts talking about a TD. "Your mileage may vary."

vaffie · #152 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 6:51 am

Portastorm wrote:Last 2 runs of the GFS (0z and 6z) develop the system and take it into the western GOM to ... ahem ... Texas next week.

please give links

MortisFL · #153 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:05 am

GFS is pretty un-reliable 6 days out

cinlfla · #154 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:07 am

GFS is pretty un-reliable 6 days out

This has probably already been asked somewhere on this board but I'm sure I missed it, at how many days should one start to pay attention to the gfs and other models.

Thunder44 · #155 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:12 am

Hint of a weak LLC near 14N and 70W possible.

[/i]

Wacahootaman · #156 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:27 am

I think it will develop. But where it goes is the big question.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:30 am

Here we go again with 99L up.

MortisFL · #158 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:31 am

Well that was quick this morning...99L invest.

Thunder44 · #159 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:38 am

098
WHXX01 KWBC 261217
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050926 1200 050927 0000 050927 1200 050928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 70.5W 15.9N 73.6W 17.4N 75.8W 19.1N 77.3W
BAMM 14.4N 70.5W 15.7N 73.2W 16.8N 75.6W 18.2N 77.4W
A98E 14.4N 70.5W 15.2N 73.8W 16.1N 76.7W 17.3N 79.1W
LBAR 14.4N 70.5W 15.8N 73.5W 17.2N 75.9W 19.0N 77.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050928 1200 050929 1200 050930 1200 051001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 77.7W 23.2N 76.6W 23.5N 74.5W 22.7N 74.2W
BAMM 19.6N 78.7W 22.0N 79.9W 23.0N 80.5W 23.6N 83.0W
A98E 18.3N 80.9W 20.6N 82.8W 22.0N 83.9W 23.7N 85.9W
LBAR 20.5N 78.7W 23.2N 78.2W 25.9N 78.3W 28.2N 78.6W
SHIP 58KTS 72KTS 76KTS 75KTS
DSHP 52KTS 52KTS 41KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 70.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 63.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#160 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:40 am

vaffie wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Last 2 runs of the GFS (0z and 6z) develop the system and take it into the western GOM to ... ahem ... Texas next week.

please give links

Sorry .... here you go:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

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