99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whoops...

Thank you all!

[Clint_TX]

grrrrr

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

grrrrr

lol huh?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Could the two waves merge? 99L and the one in front of it?

[rainstorm]

model shows the biggest ridge of the year. if anything does develop it will head to tx/la

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The cold front heading towards the GOM is very potent.
It will send dew points down into the 30s well into Louisiana.
It will enter the GOM Friday and exert a strong pull.

Unless 99L slows in forward motion significantly, the cold frontal
trough "may" protect tx/la. Timing and forward motion is
everything with this critter.

[DESTRUCTION5]

model shows the biggest ridge of the year. if anything does develop it will head to tx/la

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

What scares me is the Camel humps in the Western Atlantic under that monster ridge..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050926 1800 050927 0600 050927 1800 050928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.7W 16.5N 75.0W 17.8N 76.8W
BAMM 14.4N 70.0W 15.3N 72.6W 16.4N 75.0W 17.5N 77.0W
A98E 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.8W 16.1N 75.4W 17.0N 77.7W
LBAR 14.4N 70.0W 15.6N 72.5W 16.9N 74.7W 18.4N 76.5W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050928 1800 050929 1800 050930 1800 051001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 77.8W 20.7N 78.2W 21.7N 77.6W 23.4N 78.3W
BAMM 18.7N 78.7W 20.8N 80.5W 22.3N 81.6W 23.9N 84.0W
A98E 17.4N 79.7W 19.3N 81.9W 20.4N 83.4W 22.0N 85.4W
LBAR 19.9N 77.8W 22.5N 78.3W 25.6N 79.1W 29.9N 81.5W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 79KTS 79KTS
DSHP 53KTS 67KTS 58KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 64.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
In order for a tx/la scenario to verify the system would have to
slow signinficantly in order to allow time for the ridge to build in.

[rainstorm]

the front will also be very short lived, and will lift out fast

[flhurricaneguy]

they sure dont need any more action in that area.

[krysof]

OMG with such a powerful ridge, fish storms will be unlikely, and anything that develops would impact the U.S

[jwayne]

model shows the biggest ridge of the year. if anything does develop it will head to tx/la

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

I WANT MY MOMMY!!!!!

[jax]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
In order for a tx/la scenario to verify the system would have to
slow signinficantly in order to allow time for the ridge to build in.

we have no idea at this point.... still waiting to see if anything will
develop. lets try and be patient...

[krysof]

well the ridge looks likely now, and it should build in by the weekend, so at least we have 5 days for any system to become a fish

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
In order for a tx/la scenario to verify the system would have to
slow signinficantly in order to allow time for the ridge to build in.

we have no idea at this point.... still waiting to see if anything will
develop. lets try and be patient...

No one is being impatient. Scientific analysis (note my analysis has
a disclaimer) based on a battle between the ridge and a front is simply
analysis of the factors involved.
Agreed, it is too early to tell an eventual destination, but we know very
well that the ridge and the front will be some of the biggest factors.

These are the factors that will be subject to constant debate throughout
this week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

well the ridge looks likely now, and it should build in by the weekend, so at least we have 5 days for any system to become a fish

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes the ridge will likely build in. Now it becomes a question of the
timing of 99L and the trough.

[CHRISTY]

[cycloneye]

Look at LBAR how it tracks thru I 95 to near Jacksonville.I know that HG will say her famous words as she lives there when she see this.

[HurryKane]

*sigh* wish there was a pile of sand left on the coast for me to bury my head in. Ugh.