Talk about NWS Speculation..

[DESTRUCTION5]

THU-SUN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND ANOTHER
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI. BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

Even using Climatology

[jlauderdal]

THU-SUN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND ANOTHER
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI. BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

Even using Climatology

what's the prob...they talk about possible tropical development and that is exactly what it is

[flhurricaneguy]

nobody is going to have a clue what is going on until on of these systems form. Until then we can just watch and wait

[Cookiely]

This is from the Tampa NWS discussion.
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. GFS STILL FOCUSES ON WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH EAST GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Could they be talking about invest 99????????

[terstorm1012]

wouldn't doubt it.

I think we're all a little 'gunshy' now.........if this were a season that wasn't so catastrophic i think they wouldn't be putting their speculations public. just a thought though

[N2Storms]

Could they be talking about invest 99????????



I don't think this is invest 99L, I think this is a piece of energy that gets cut off from the extereme southern remnant of Rita...it is visible on the satellite now in the NE GOMEX...99L at this point looks as though it is going to be a Western GOMEX event , probably Texas coast again...IMO it won't become as intense as Rita but I wouldn't be surprised to see it become a formidable TC...

[deltadog03]

i think that is a second area of concern...JB made mention of this today
that most of our systems have moved in tandum this year...

[SunnyThoughts]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 249 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005 SYNOPSIS 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON UP INTO THE NORTHEAST. AREA RADARS REVEAL THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO MY CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MCV MOVING OVER THE WATERS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DISCOUNT IT. THAT BEING SAID...I DO NOT LIKE THE GFS RETROGRADING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY BACK TO THE WEST. I WILL NOT PLACE THE CIRCULATION IN THE WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS THE FINAL MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE EXTREMELY HARD TO PINPOINT.

Sorry if this has been posted already...haven't seen it anywhere...seems there are quite a few areas to watch, thats for sure.