Miami NWS

[jlauderdal]

They seem to like 99L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

DISCUSSION
MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF ANDROS MOVING WEST AND
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA SHOWING UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED COOLING FROM H7 TO H4 BUT WE STILL HAVE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
CAP AROUND 600 MB. SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA
AND NORTHEAST GULF AND STALL. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO POSSIBLY ON THE SOUTH END OF THE FRONT.
THAT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY BY FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER LOW FORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS ONE REALLY NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE DUE TO COOLING
ALOFT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING. NO THUNDER SHOWING UP
PROBABLY BECAUSE OF CAP BUT IT MAY BREAK OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STEADILY NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHERE WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50%. MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WHEN WE GET CLOSER TO THE WET STRETCH AND SEE IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS SCENARIO.

[HeatherAKC]

Question:

Does this...

THAT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY BY FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER LOW FORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS ONE REALLY NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED.

"needs to be monitored" in general, or for South Florida?

I'm thinking in general.

Curious.

[Canelaw99]

I would think in general, also....but, would be interesting to know what they meant by it.

[Clint_TX]

Not to be an alarmist...But Fl I would imagine

[fwbbreeze]

this is an excerpt from the NWS Tallahassee:

GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR A FEW RUNS THAT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA BY SATURDAY AND THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF. WITH THE CURRENT PRESSURE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AND WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF...OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND WITH IT OUR CHANCES OF RAIN
FALL TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

fwbbreeze

[beachbum_al]

Just great!

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS carries it across the Yucatan as a very weak low - never develops it.

I think this thing needs to start spinning up within the next 24 to 36 hours to avoid that fate.

[HurricaneQueen]

Not a bad fate, at all.

[cmdebbie]

I certainly hope that it just goes...poof! We are leaving on a cruise from Tampa this coming Saturday and guess where we are going? Thats right, Grand Cayman and Cozumel. Ouch!

I will definitely be watching this one all week long!