99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

CHRISTY · #382 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:07 pm

what time do the next model runs come out! 11.00pm ???

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #383 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:10 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what time do the next model runs come out! 11.00pm ???

Yup.
SInce I am studying for an AP Chemistry test I won't sleep till then
anyways....

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #384 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:12 pm

Speculation time:
How do you think the models will shift?
Or will they continue to indulge in enigmatic ambiguity?

caneman · #385 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:13 pm

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N71W. PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH THE CONVECTION PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE W CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE DAYS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #386 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:22 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This will be tricky. A ridge building by the weekend. A trough diving
into GOM.

cinlfla · #387 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:24 pm

This will be tricky. A ridge building by the weekend. A trough diving
into GOM.

You said it, "Tricky" If this thing developes I wouldn't want to have to be the one to forecast it.

#388 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:25 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Great view for watching fronts/ridges later this week.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #389 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:26 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

analysis:
Timing is everything. Faster forward motion increases
chance for a NE curve. Slower forward motion increases chance for
being driven West by the ridge. Forward motion has slowed over
the past few hours from 15 KT to 10 KT, so everyone along the gulf coast needs to be watching. Will it continue to slow? The models say so,
we'd better watch. Slower motion increases chances for W. GOM.
Faster for E. GOM. It has slowed. Will it continue to slow? Too early
to tell. Possibly.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #390 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:26 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Great view for watching fronts/ridges later this week.

Thanks for the link!

WindRunner · #391 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:27 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what time do the next model runs come out! 11.00pm ???

They are running the models at 8pm, and stream out between 8:20 and 9:30 generally. The SFWMD plots (white background maps) will be mostly updated by about 8:45.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #392 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:27 pm

WindRunner wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:what time do the next model runs come out! 11.00pm ???

They are running the models at 8pm, and stream out between 8:20 and 9:30 generally. The SFWMD plots (white background maps) will be mostly updated by about 8:45.

Okay thanks!!! :wink:

#393 Postby **Noah** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:38 pm

they talking of rits building back up in the gulf? looks like she is going backwards.

CHRISTY · #394 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:39 pm

when those models come out around 8:45 please post them thanks!

Doc Seminole · #395 Postby **Doc Seminole** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:42 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:I can't believe we have 19 pages on a blob that isn't even a depression yet with pressures of 1010.

That's awesome....... but hey, I have pictures of 2 blobs, Invests if you will, the results of which were real ugly. This year is the year of the blobs that went haywire.

Doc Seminole 8-)

#396 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:44 pm

Agreed! But this thread is pretty one sided, if you get my drift.

L

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #397 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:45 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Agreed! But this thread is pretty one sided, if you get my drift.

L

Insanity is the reason :lol:

Swimdude · #398 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:45 pm

caneman wrote:CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N71W. PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH THE CONVECTION PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE W CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE DAYS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

This is a lower pressure than noted earlier... And it also seems they're expecting it to develop. Different from this morning.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #399 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:45 pm

Okay this should update shortly:

Rainband · #400 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:47 pm

Locals just mentioned it on commercial break.

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