99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

They seem to like 99L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

DISCUSSION
MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF ANDROS MOVING WEST AND
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA SHOWING UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED COOLING FROM H7 TO H4 BUT WE STILL HAVE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
CAP AROUND 600 MB. SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA
AND NORTHEAST GULF AND STALL. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO POSSIBLY ON THE SOUTH END OF THE FRONT.
THAT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY BY FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER LOW FORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS ONE REALLY NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE DUE TO COOLING
ALOFT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING. NO THUNDER SHOWING UP
PROBABLY BECAUSE OF CAP BUT IT MAY BREAK OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STEADILY NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHERE WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50%. MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WHEN WE GET CLOSER TO THE WET STRETCH AND SEE IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS SCENARIO.

If Miami NWS is saying this then I am listening. They are fairly conservative on their tropical forecasts:

If that discussion says moving NW through the Yucatan Channel then Florida doesnt have much to worry about, unless it takes an extremely sharp E turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

If that discussion says moving NW through the Yucatan Channel then Florida doesnt have much to worry about, unless it takes an extremely sharp E turn towards FL.

With cold fronts making it farther south each day, it could turn NE into the west coast of FL, however, I have a feeling this atypical season will not feature cold fronts of that magnitude until maybe as late as November.

[Swimdude]

If that discussion says moving NW through the Yucatan Channel then Florida doesnt have much to worry about, unless it takes an extremely sharp E turn towards FL.

Yup, I see exactly what you mean. That would be VERY, VERY strange... Even with a potential cold front... I really wish the models would be updated... Anyone know where I can see the latest ones?

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me or are the models for 99L no longer being run? I still dont see the 00Z model runs for tonight.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Maybe 99L is dead? Regardless, I don't see a FL threat from anything in the Caribbean anytime soon. Just look at the monster ridge about to form. Biggest ridge I've seen all summer(or fall). If there were CV canes they would be lined up on Florida.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION... THEY COULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.


10:30 PM TWO.

[Swimdude]

Hmmm... Sounds like if this has time to develop, it won't be for too long...

[wxmann_91]

My amateur opinion is that there's a trough that is expected to affect the eastern United States in about three days. If 99L moves fast enough that will catch it and it might affect eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and then out to sea. If 99L moves a bit slower west coast of FL is under the gun. However, should 99L miss the trough, a massive ridge is expected to build in the southern United States, which would either drive 99L into deep south Texas or Mexico.

BTW if it moves into MX then expect a lull. Four letter storms that move into Mexico usually usher in an active period or a lull. The last four letter storm to move into Mexico was Jose, it ushered in this active period. Let's hope we can see a lull after Stan.

[gatorcane]

BTW if it moves into MX then expect a lull. Four letter storms that move into Mexico usually usher in an active period or a lull. The last four letter storm to move into Mexico was Jose, it ushered in this active period. Let's hope we can see a lull after Stan.

What does a four letter storm hitting the Northwest GOM coast bring next?

[gatorcane]

BTW if it moves into MX then expect a lull. Four letter storms that move into Mexico usually usher in an active period or a lull. The last four letter storm to move into Mexico was Jose, it ushered in this active period. Let's hope we can see a lull after Stan.

What does a four letter storm hitting the Northwest GOM coast bring next?

[Stratosphere747]

Whatever is considerd 99L....Is on life support..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because this thing is moving so quickly at 15-20 mph, it may enter
the GOM in time for the trough to curve it and protect TX/La and
probably bring a rainy Thursday-Friday to the west coast of FL.

For the ridge to impact it, its forward motion would have to slow
significantly to allow time for the ridge to catch up...ridge won't build
until Saturday.

[corpusbreeze]

Jb says in his 9pm write up this will most likley be a TS by the weekend and threaten the west GOM. I have to say he saw Rita way before anybody. Well see.

JB is full of applesauce. I seriously doubt this system -- if it becomes a threat -- will come anywhere near the west GOM, based on climatological precedents.

This season is very UNclimatological precedents. Local weather here says we need to keep an eye on it, NWS, Jb, and the models are hinting at it. If this ridge is as strong as the models predict, it will go to Mexico. WHO KNOWS. But after the scare last week im sick of talking about hurricanes......But for some darn reason I cant get off this freaken computer and S2K. I think S2K should have a warning posted that says the use of this web site can be addictive and keep you up all night.

[HurricaneQueen]

Check out the latest tropical cyclone activty from the Atlantic basin:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

Looks as if 99L might be dead.

Lynn

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Check out the latest tropical cyclone activty from the Atlantic basin:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

Looks as if 99L might be dead.

Lynn

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Dead for now. But may regenerate as shear will lessen tomorrow.
But it looks like this deadening may keep it weaker.

[deltadog03]

Check out the latest tropical cyclone activty from the Atlantic basin:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

Looks as if 99L might be dead.

Lynn

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Dead for now. But may regenerate as shear will lessen tomorrow.
But it looks like this deadening may keep it weaker.

um....you don't need the disclaimer
EVERY post....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well my remark about deadening was personal speculation and not official
that is why i added the disclaimer

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is 99L dead or alive?

[Doc Seminole]

Whatever is considerd 99L....Is on life support..

Help me .... help me...... help me.....

That is what was said about Katrina for I can't remember how long!


While waiting for the Boils, Frogs, Locusts, Gnats, Hail & Pestilence... I'll throw a dart.

TAMPA/ST. PETE/CLEARWATER is in the batters cage on this one. 920-940MB

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Heck, it's just my humble opinion.

Doc Seminole

[bigmike]

Jb says in his 9pm write up this will most likley be a TS by the weekend and threaten the west GOM. I have to say he saw Rita way before anybody. Well see.

JB is full of applesauce. I seriously doubt this system -- if it becomes a threat -- will come anywhere near the west GOM, based on climatological precedents.

Like scorpion said with that monster ridge building in it's gonna be hard for it to hit florida. And on a note for all the people who bash JB. Yeah he's a showboat but the guy does have a knack for recognizing patterns if nothing else. And a lot of the models and steering currents support him on his call for this one. JMO for what its worth