99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jasons2k]

Jb says in his 9pm write up this will most likley be a TS by the weekend and threaten the west GOM. I have to say he saw Rita way before anybody. Well see.

JB is full of applesauce. I seriously doubt this system -- if it becomes a threat -- will come anywhere near the west GOM, based on climatological precedents.

Ummm.....I think Rita pretty much defied climo. in a *big* way.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Only thing is 99L is moving very fast. Too quick for the ridge IMO.
But,

I agree though that after the cold front, a huge ridge is likely,
which would send the low along 39W into the Carribean...and then
looks like fair game.
But this mammoth ridge will not be in full force until Saturday.
99L may sneak by and get caught by the trough and into FL West Coast
with its current forward speed. Speed timing is big here.

HOWEVER, if 99L relocates its center eastward tonight or tomorrow,
a lot changes, timing and GOM entering is later, and the ridge may
send it westward.

Timing is big here.

[corpusbreeze]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Only thing is 99L is moving very fast. Too quick for the ridge IMO.
But,

I agree though that after the cold front, a huge ridge is likely,
which would send the low along 39W into the Carribean...and then
looks like fair game.
But this mammoth ridge will not be in full force until Saturday.
99L may sneak by and get caught by the trough and into FL West Coast
with its current forward speed. Speed timing is big here.

Depends on which side of this huge blob the LLC forms. More west , yes trough influence. East ,ridge.

[TS Zack]

This wave will not get into the Gulf within the next 48hrs. Therefore, no recurve back towards Florida. In 72hrs, the ridge is beginning to build back across Florida which would push anything back West.



What worries me here in Louisiana is a cut-off low that can be seen coming into the pictures from the Rockies. If that moves Eastward which may leave a Weakness in the ridge over the North Gulfcoast.

[M_0331]

The SSM/I & TRMM on the NRL site measures 25 kts at 17N & 75W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Eddie

[curtadams]

OK, according to the NHC, this thing has *no* deep convection and *no* satellite signature (ie no circulation). Can somebody take the thing off the front page? This is starting to make JB look like Avila. 23 pages on an open wave!

[Windy]

Yes, I'm sure there are much better things to go on the front page than info about a tropical wave. Indeed, Curt, lets take down the front page and put up a new one about rebuilding transmissions. I'm sure that will keep everyone here riveted for days.

[Starburst]

Anyone notice how much better it looks after the eclipse?

[Cookiely]

It certainly doesn't look "dead" this morning. You see it heard you and woke up.

[O Town]

Deffinatley not dead. Looking pretty good this morning, a little more clustered and convection is looking better than last night when I went to bed as well.

[bigmike]

I don't know how to post a link ( I know computer challenged ) but the latest tropical discussion says the 1009 low with this wave has dissipated.

[cinlfla]

Is it from the 2:05 am discussion? if so I didn't read anything in there that said that but I could have missed it who know.

[O Town]

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS DISSIPATED. WAVE IS
BENEATH E TO SE UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
E. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W FROM
13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N.

[vaffie]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's convection is INTENSE and FOCUSED now. At this rate, development is going to be certain and RAPID. Yikes. I'm not even back in Houston yet. What if that high pushes it towards the upper Texas coast again? What a nightmare that would be?! At this rate, though, at least, the NHC will pay enough attention to it to send an airplane into it very soon, and the models will all begin to initialize it properly so that we will have a much better idea of where and what it may do. I just do not have much faith in the idea that that cold front can pick it up--not when the cold fronts are so weak this time of year and especially this year and it is still far away enough to miss it--at most the cold front might pull it a bit more north than it would have gone otherwise, and remember that if any model would overestimate the strength of a cold front--it's the GFS, and it's just not saying it yet. Not to say that Florida should let their guard down by any means whatsoever--one never knows, but I think everyone will agree that this looks more like another unclimatological western Gulf hit, and considering the upper support it now has, the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, six days before it even gets into the Gulf, the intensity and focused nature of this morning's convection, the already dropping pressures that the NHC announced yesterday, the strong MJO in the Caribbean, and the fact that most of the models had picked up on it yesterday and even the day before, this thing could become a hurricane and even a very strong hurricane very quickly ... Sheesh, this is scary.

[cinlfla]

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS DISSIPATED. WAVE IS
BENEATH E TO SE UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
E. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W FROM
13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N.



DUH!!!!! Thanks for posting.....

[cjrciadt]

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
Look at 99L on Goes, refresh to see any changes.

[no advance]

Low pressure reforming? Sure looks like it.

[Starburst]

[Starburst]

Sorry I swear I didn't push the button twice lol

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050927 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050927 1200 050928 0000 050928 1200 050929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 75.6W 15.0N 78.3W 16.4N 80.3W 17.6N 81.7W
BAMM 13.7N 75.6W 14.9N 78.0W 16.0N 80.1W 17.1N 81.8W
A98E 13.7N 75.6W 13.8N 78.0W 14.2N 80.1W 14.9N 82.2W
LBAR 13.7N 75.6W 14.6N 78.0W 16.0N 80.0W 17.5N 81.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050929 1200 050930 1200 051001 1200 051002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 82.6W 18.4N 83.6W 18.4N 84.6W 18.9N 86.2W
BAMM 18.0N 83.1W 18.3N 84.9W 18.4N 86.3W 18.8N 88.0W
A98E 15.4N 84.0W 16.3N 87.0W 16.7N 89.6W 17.0N 92.5W
LBAR 18.5N 82.7W 20.7N 84.3W 22.8N 86.8W 25.3N 89.9W
SHIP 63KTS 77KTS 85KTS 92KTS
DSHP 63KTS 77KTS 85KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 75.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 70.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models