99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

flhurricaneguy · #481 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:19 am

wow its going to be an interesting week to come

#482 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:53 am

I wouldn't pay any attention to model solutions at this point. There is no system to initialize. Heck, we don't even have a low out there yet in the Caribbean. All it is ... is a mass of clouds and potential for more convection in an area climatologically favored to produce something. (i.e. a lot of maybes at this point and nothing more).

flhurricaneguy · #483 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:56 am

maybes are all we got right now so i am holding to them until they become somethings

#484 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:57 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:maybes are all we got right now so i am holding to them until they become somethings

...or nothings.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #485 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:59 am

Another major reason for ppl along the GOM to not let their guard down
is that a significant front may exert a northerly pull on this system
towards late week, prior to the establishment of the ridge.

However if 99L stays weak it may not sense the front and may continue
on a generally westward track.
Ponder over it:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

#486 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:05 am

Looking at the IR loop this morning 99L may be starting to get it's act together b/c t-storms are refiring in the overcast skies from the earlier T-storms an indication that it's not just diurnal related.

#487 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:08 am

...and visible imagery looks pretty good this morning too. It's going to be interesting what happens later today and tonight.

#488 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:10 am

Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

#489 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:10 am

Whoa

#490 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:12 am

drezee wrote:Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

Uh Ohhhh

#491 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:15 am

skysummit wrote:
drezee wrote:Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

Uh Ohhhh

Either a LLC is forming or a huge outflow boundary is heading east out of the system. We will know in less than 3 hours....

hurricanefloyd5 · #492 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:15 am

Is TD20 forming/going to form in the Carribean Sea (CS)??????????????????????

flhurricaneguy · #493 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:16 am

DREZEE, what would happen if that pans out?

#494 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:17 am

OK, now that I have seen satellite this morning I have changed my mind.

This will be Stan, a Category 6 hurricane no doubt. :lol:

All kidding aside, my 7-yr-old asked me why they don't go higher than Category 5 ... and I didn't know what to tell him!! He was convinced that Katrina was a Category 6 hurricane.

#495 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:20 am

Portastorm wrote:OK, now that I have seen satellite this morning I have changed my mind.

This will be Stan, a Category 6 hurricane no doubt.

All kidding aside, my 7-yr-old asked me why they don't go higher than Category 5 ... and I didn't know what to tell him!! He was convinced that Katrina was a Category 6 hurricane.

I heard that it would take away from Category 5 storms. Plus, once you get sustained winds of 156mph or greater, the damage is catastrophic anyway and there would be no difference.

x-y-no · #496 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:23 am

drezee wrote:Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

WSW now even ...

What interests me is that this bouy is well over a degree north of where the operational models initialized the system this morning.

#497 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:23 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:DREZEE, what would happen if that pans out?

If it is an outflow boundary, then that is a "NO GO" for development. Air would be travelling away from the center. If it doesn't show up on the SAT in 3 hours or less then it is probably ramping up for development...

#498 Postby **Roxy** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:24 am

x-y-no wrote:
drezee wrote:Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

WSW now even ...

What interests me is that this bouy is well over a degree north of where the operational models initialized the system this morning.

Jan, I want you to know I always look for your posts. You are one of the most level headed and knowledgeable posters here....so thank you.

If you say this thing looks to be developing, I listen.

caneman · #499 Postby **caneman** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:24 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:DREZEE, what would happen if that pans out?

I'm not Drezee but if it does form quickly - like today it would likely have a chance of making it into the GOM

#500 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:24 am

x-y-no wrote:
drezee wrote:Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

WSW now even ...

What interests me is that this bouy is well over a degree north of where the operational models initialized the system this morning.

So what you're implying is that if there is a LLC trying to form, it would be much further north than what the models are indicating....therefore, a much less likely west track into Central America?

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