99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Well I'm still a bit shaken from last year so anything that forms
I will go crazy until I am super-sure I am in the clear.
Especially after seeing what Charley did. So I've been worked up
in watching since then.

[x-y-no]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

[skysummit]

Why stop fighting? That's what this board has turned into this year. This season has just been waaaaaaaaaaay too much for everyone.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

[skysummit]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

That's probably because the models have initialized 99L's location well SOUTH of where a possible LLC is forming. We'll have to wait until we get a truc LLC to look at the models properly.

[deltadog03]

first of all it was a joke about to stop fighting...we need to discuss this...I just don't think this front will have any effect on this. I think the front will be long gone by time this gets close. All of the globals show a massive ridge building in. That front will come and go...just an early thought

[skysummit]

first of all it was a joke about to stop fighting...we need to discuss this...I just don't think this front will have any effect on this. I think the front will be long gone by time this gets close. All of the globals show a massive ridge building in. That front will come and go...just an early thought

I agree with you delta. My comment was a joke too

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

That's probably because the models have initialized 99L's location well SOUTH of where a possible LLC is forming. We'll have to wait until we get a truc LLC to look at the models properly.

Thank you for the explanation

[MortisFL]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

You disagree with meteorologists and models... probably not a good idea.

[HouTXmetro]

There is a second powerful front coming through by mid week which is suppose to knock 10-15 degrees off our Daily High Temps. Depending on the orientation of that Front, it's very plausible that it could pick up 99L, on the otherhand, if 99L continues to move around 10mph I doubt it will.

[jax]

no -removed- allowed...
please..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

You disagree with meteorologists and models... probably not a good idea.

It's not meteorlogists I disagree with "in this case only as the models
have initialized an incorrect LLC location", it's newscasters who
base their statements on faulty models I disagree with.

Dick Fletcher said it NEEDS to be watched-- so he isn't writing this one
off. Fox 13 was downplaying it

[deltadog03]

good point...that front will be soooooo NICE...its gonna be great...but, its gonna be a quick hit and boom gone...we will have to see...im not -removed-...

[HouTXmetro]

Well it's not a depression yet so we can't definitivly say the models initated the center too far south.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

no -removed- allowed...
please..

This accusation is preposterous, unwarranted, and unfounded.Remarks like the above aside,
I am analyzing based on scientific information.

[x-y-no]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

The issue is that the few operational tropical models which initialized the system at all did so too far south by over a degree. But probably the best guidance from them would be the BAMM, which takes it WNW over the next couple of days.

The globals are all too weak and too slow with it right now, we'll see if they pick it up better tonight. Weak and slow would translate into a left bias in the track, since the shallow steering is more westerly, and the ridge has more time to build in.

(EDIT ... I typed NNW, changed to WNW)

[HouTXmetro]

good point...that front will be soooooo NICE...its gonna be great...but, its gonna be a quick hit and boom gone...we will have to see...im not -removed-...

With temps forecasted to hit the century mark in Houston today. I just don't see this front making much progress into the Gulf.

[x-y-no]

Well it's not a depression yet so we can't definitivly say the models initated the center too far south.

I base that statement on bouy data. Station 42058, which is up at 14.98 N 74.99 W, had WSW winds this morning.

[MortisFL]

Big t-storms approaching Jamaica

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HAHAHAHA!!!! Stop fighting on where its going...lol...The front is not going to due much with....don't worry about it...

Care to offer your meteorological reasoning?

x-y-no out of curiosity I am wondering why the models are not
picking up on the cold front. These models have local newstations
convinced that 99L will stay well South of FL. I disagree with them
as well as the models.

I am really starting to get concerned now.

The issue is that the few operational tropical models which initialized the system at all did so too far south by over a degree. But probably the best guidance from them would be the BAMM, which takes it NNW over the next couple of days.

The globals are all too weak and too slow with it right now, we'll see if they pick it up better tonight. Weak and slow would translate into a left bias in the track, since the shallow steering is more westerly, and the ridge has more time to build in.

Thank you for the explanations