99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

Thank you for the explanations

Note I had an error in that post ... typed NNW when I meant WNW.

Fixed now.

[rockyman]

Well it's not a depression yet so we can't definitivly say the models initated the center too far south.

I base that statement on bouy data. Station 42058, which is up at 14.98 N 74.99 W, had WSW winds this morning.

Update: Winds are now reported as "West" (260 degrees) and the pressure is slowly rising...indicates the center (if this is the cause of the winds) is either pulling away or weakening and is still north or northwest of the buoy station.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[cmdebbie]

hmmm...wonder what all this could mean for my cruise to Grand Cayman & Cozumel that departs this Saturday from Tampa. Yikes!

Things that make you go hmmm!

[curtadams]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

[jax]

if you look at the visible loop...
looks like an outflow boundry to the WSW of the convection...

[jax]

double post... sorry

[jax]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

because it is invest 99 and models are being generated...
and because there is nothing else going on in the basin.
It's also within striking distance (within 7 days). And this is
a tropical discussion forum...

[KatDaddy]

From the 11:30AM TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 271502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Ivanhater]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

Well I think your wrong there! This could be a diffrent wave but I don't think so! This is from the 11:30 TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[KatDaddy]

From WeatherUnderground Jeff Masters Blog:

Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:12 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Updated: 3:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and disorganized, and will not become a tropical depression today. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today will probably be cancelled. The disturbance has no surface circulation, surface pressures are not falling significantly, and there is about 10 knots of shear over it--which is marginal for tropical storm development. However, the largest burst of deep convection we've seen yet with this system began at about 4am EDT this morning, and the disturbance now has an expanding area of thunderstorms with cold tops that may signify the beginnings of an attempt to organize into a tropical depression. The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development.

I expect that we won't see a depression until late Wednesday, when the upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax significantly. I still give this disturbance a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The GFS model predicts that the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week, but this forecast is too far in the future to give much credence to.

[mahicks]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

You will find that info in the TWO is pretty vague..
MANY times over the past 2 years, especially this year, the TWO has gone something like this....

5am: An area of cloudyness.......not conducive.......developement not for a few days....

5pm: Vigorous wave.....Persistent......may become a tropical cyclone later today..

Of course, I've seen the exact opposite this year too...

I ALWAYS read the TWO, but I never believe all of it.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT MON 26 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST AT 28/18Z
NEAR 18N 81W.


KatDaddy no recon is going today as the plan said yesterday distint from what that person from underground says.

[CHRISTY]

what else is going on out in the atlantic????

[skysummit]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

Uhhhh....ok, then what's this?

[Javlin]

99L looks to at the time the beginnings of a nice signature on sat. pic at NRL.I would have to add here the season without an end "geez luis".

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1230 PM EDT TUE 27 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA CENTRAL CARRIBEAN
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 28/1800Z A. 29/0500Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 28/1345Z C. 29/0000Z
D. 17N AND 80W D. 18N AND 81.5W
E. 28/1700-2300Z E. 29/0400-0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 29/18Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

MW their interest now is way up there now.

[CHRISTY]

i meant further out !with this strong ridge suppose to build i think everything in the atlantic has to be watched! does anyone have model links of what might be happening in the next 7-10 days in the atlantic?

[Roxy]

Haha, for the record, Dr. Neils assistant is saying it could develop and be in the western gulf by this weekend.

I am laughing because it's too damn ironic.

[x-y-no]

Why are people still discussing this thing? The NHC doesn't even list it as "possible development in the next few days". Accuweather forgot to mention it in its wave list! It's just another open wave grinding across the Atlantic. They show up every 3 days or so.

Ahh ... slaccuweather forgot to mention it ... guess you're right - couldn't possibly be anything to pay attention to. How silly of us all.