TD 15-E at EPAC, Sat. Images, Q&As, Disc., Comm. Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271655
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$





A new wave has formed in the eastern Pacific and may develop into a tropical depression and/or a named system soon.

[cycloneye]

I will edit the title to say 98E invest.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, cycloneye!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP982005) ON 20050927 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050927 1800 050928 0600 050928 1800 050929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 103.3W 17.0N 105.5W 17.4N 107.5W 18.0N 109.2W
BAMM 17.0N 103.3W 17.2N 105.4W 17.8N 107.4W 18.6N 109.5W
LBAR 17.0N 103.3W 16.8N 104.9W 17.3N 107.0W 18.0N 109.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050929 1800 050930 1800 051001 1800 051002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 110.9W 20.1N 114.1W 21.6N 117.1W 23.2N 119.6W
BAMM 19.5N 111.7W 20.8N 115.9W 21.8N 119.3W 22.3N 122.1W
LBAR 19.0N 110.8W 20.9N 114.4W 22.7N 117.6W 24.8N 120.2W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 45KTS 35KTS
DSHP 50KTS 53KTS 45KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 103.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 102.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 101.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Models for 98E.

[WeatherEmperor]

no matter how hard the EPAC tries, it will never surpass the Atlantic this year. hahahaha!!

<RICKY>

[bombarderoazul]

Does anyone know what basins are the busiest? I will imagine that the Wpac will be #1, but who is second, third, and so on.

[MiamiensisWx]

Does anyone know what basins are the busiest? I will imagine that the Wpac will be #1, but who is second, third, and so on.

The busiest basin is usually the western Pacific. The next two most busiest basins are the Atlantic and eastern Pacific; which one of those two are more busy depends on the El Nino/La Nina cycle and other factors. In El Nino years, the eastern Pacific may have more named systems than the Atlantic; in La Nina years, the opposite may occur.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know what basins are the busiest? I will imagine that the Wpac will be #1, but who is second, third, and so on.

The busiest basin is usually the western Pacific. The next two most busiest basins are the Atlantic and eastern Pacific; which one of those two are more busy depends on the El Nino/La Nina cycle and other factors. In El Nino years, the eastern Pacific may have more named systems than the Atlantic; in La Nina years, the opposite may occur.

We also have to take in account the South Indian Ocean. They can have season of very high activity. Their season is usually from late October to May.

[WeatherEmperor]

the WPAC will always be more busy then all other basins around the world because tropical cyclone formation occurs all year long and possible every month of the year.

<RICKY>

[bombarderoazul]

How many pacific hurricanes have hit land this season?, I can only think of Adrian wich hit El Salvador back in May.

[WeatherEmperor]

How many pacific hurricanes have hit land this season?, I can only think of Adrian wich hit El Salvador back in May.

Yeah thats true. Not many EPAC storms hit land as they tend to move westward as they develop. Adrian move eastward though.

<RICKY>

[HURAKAN]

The Pacific coast of North and Central America is more vulnerable to hurricane strikes during the last months of the season, usually troughs of low pressure make the hurricanes move northward or NEastward toward land.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/272051ZSEP2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 103.1W TO 17.3N 107.5W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANI-
ZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.//

[wxmann_91]

Does anyone know what basins are the busiest? I will imagine that the Wpac will be #1, but who is second, third, and so on.

The busiest basin is usually the western Pacific. The next two most busiest basins are the Atlantic and eastern Pacific; which one of those two are more busy depends on the El Nino/La Nina cycle and other factors. In El Nino years, the eastern Pacific may have more named systems than the Atlantic; in La Nina years, the opposite may occur.

Hmmm, I had always thought that the EPAC, on average, has more storms than the Atlantic. (Yes, I know that has not been true for the last 10 years, but when the EPAC gets active they can easily spin up >15 storms.)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP982005) ON 20050928 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050928 0000 050928 1200 050929 0000 050929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 104.2W 17.3N 106.1W 17.6N 107.6W 18.2N 109.0W
BAMM 17.0N 104.2W 17.4N 106.1W 18.0N 107.8W 18.8N 109.7W
LBAR 17.0N 104.2W 17.1N 106.0W 17.7N 107.8W 18.6N 109.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050930 0000 051001 0000 051002 0000 051003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 110.4W 20.3N 112.6W 22.2N 114.2W 24.7N 115.2W
BAMM 19.4N 111.6W 20.3N 114.6W 20.7N 116.3W 21.2N 116.9W
LBAR 19.6N 111.1W 21.3N 113.9W 23.2N 116.4W 25.2N 117.8W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 48KTS 41KTS
DSHP 51KTS 54KTS 48KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 104.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 102.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 102.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models.

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

It is now Tropical Depression 15-E.

[wxmann_91]

Geesh Stewart even has to write such a good disco for an EPAC storm:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282017
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN TERMS OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AS NOTED IN 28/1302Z
QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. EVEN THOUGH THE DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SHARPLY SINCE THIS MORNING... THERE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM
ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS... EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AS A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST FEW IMAGES... HOWEVER... SUGGEST
THAT THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PULLED UNDERNEATH THE
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER... AND THAT WAS THE FEATURE USED TO
LOCATE THE CENTER OF TD-15E FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE BROAD EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION. AFTERWARDS... ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 TO 120 HOURS...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
96-120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL ROCKETS
THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IN 120 HOURS.
THIS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER MODEL AT THIS TIME SINCE THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OR
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE
THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E QUITE WELL AT 12Z... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... ONLY SLOWER
DUE TO CONTAMINATION CAUSED BY THE MUCH FASTER GFDL MODEL.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND IS NOW ABOUT 15 KT
FROM THE NORTHEAST. BY 48 HOURS... THE SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 28-29C SSTS. AS
A RESULT... INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS FORECAST...
WHICH REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... BUT SIMILAR
TO THE GFDL MODEL. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER... DUE TO
THE SHARP SST-GRADIENT THAT EXISTS WITHIN 100 NMI OF THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALFIFORNIA... JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION RIGHT/LEFT OF TRACK
COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER/LOWER INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS
THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 17.1N 106.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 107.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 18.3N 109.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 19.2N 110.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.7N 112.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 114.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT

$$


Could bring some rains to the desert southwest in about a week. Crossing my fingers again.

[cycloneye]

290230
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[hurricanefreak1988]

Stupid E-Pac, every depression so far over there has been named. If not for T.D. Ten getting lost in what became T.D. Twelve (and eventually, of course, one of the greatest of all time), we would've done that, too.