NHC FAILED TERREBONNE PARISH COASTAL RESIDENTS!!!!!

[curtadams]

Have you ever heard the term "state of the art"? It means there is a limit to the forecasting ability of the most skilled meteorologist; a limit to the capability and accuracy of the best computer model. I've researched Atlantic hurricanes for more than thirty years; consider myself an authority on them......and honestly believe NHC's forecasts this season have been as accurate as humanly possible; including the SLOSH storm surge forecasts.

IMO some folks simply expect too much....expect an accuracy and level of individual warning that is simply unrealistic in 2005; a precise forecasting skill that is unnatainable with the current state of the art. Look friend....people didn't die during Katrina and Rita due to poor storm surge warnings from the National Hurricane Center.

Perry W.

I agree that the NHC has done as well as could be expected. However, people *did* die in MS, for sure, because the surge far exceeded predictions. The forecast maps I saw called for up to 24' surge. I've seen multiple reputable reports over 30' and some over 35' (Cantore). NHC's prediction was: "COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET..." ie Camille-level. Substantially less than what we saw. I've seen multiple interviews where people said they had gone to places that were high and dry in Camille, figuring they'd be safe, and got flooded out.

[CajunMama]

I agree that the NHC has done as well as could be expected. However, people *did* die in MS, for sure, because the surge far exceeded predictions. The forecast maps I saw called for up to 24' surge. I've seen multiple reputable reports over 30' and some over 35' (Cantore). NHC's prediction was: "COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET..." ie Camille-level. Substantially less than what we saw. I've seen multiple interviews where people said they had gone to places that were high and dry in Camille, figuring they'd be safe, and got flooded out.

The key word is PREDICT. Now we all know that no prediction is 100% correct. A "forecast" is that...just a forecast, it's not set in stone. Common sense will tell you that. Take Southerngale for example. She evacuated an hour north of her home, thinking she'd be safe...did they expect 120mph winds that far north???? NO! There are just too many different forces in nature to have the ultimate perfect prediction. But to blame the NHC, imo is just plain wrong...we're only human and so are the forecasters.

And as far as people "figuring " that Katrina would have been like Camille, that's not the NHC's fault for their way of thinking. People have to learn to start doing a little more thinking for themselves than relying 100% word for word from forecasters or comparing everything to a past storm. Everyday is different, every storm is different.

[cajungal]

So true! People should just use common sense when living in a low lying swampy area like Terrebonne Parish! (especially in the bayou communities below Houma) They go under water simply from high tide or a little thunderstorm because we are losing our coast. This is the first time I saw a 7 page thread on my parish!

[sunny]

I don't know if you guys have seen this or not....

from wwltv.com


Thousands of flooded Terrebonne homes may not be eligible for FEMA aid

03:08 PM CDT on Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Kimberly Solet / Houma Courier

HOUMA -- Nearly 10,000 Terrebonne Parish homes were severely damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Rita, but officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency said they had to investigate whether residents are eligible for disaster relief.

In a memo Monday, William Lokey, FEMA’s deputy federal coordinating officer, wrote that although Gov. Kathleen Blanco asked for all parishes to be declared disasters, and eligible for relief money, only the Louisiana parishes that suffered hurricane-force winds have been included.

Saturday, FEMA declared nine Texas counties and five coastal Louisiana parishes in the southwest portion of the state disaster areas and eligible for individual assistance -- including low-interest loans to rebuild damage homes -- as a result of Rita.

In his memo, Lokey wrote that although Blanco wanted all parishes included in FEMA’s disaster-assistance program, "FEMA determined to initially include only parishes which sustained hurricane-force winds."

Terrebonne sustained tropical-storm-force winds during Rita, but a 9-foot storm surge swamped thousands of homes and displaced a significant portion of the parish population.

Lokey wrote that FEMA is working with state officials to determine whether residents in additional parishes need help.

A news release issued by the federal agency Sunday states that "within the next few days" the inclusion of other parishes impacted by Rita would be assessed. The notice states that information about more areas included in the affect area would be released once assessments are complete.

FEMA disaster benefits include aid for damaged property and homes, unemployment benefits for self-employed workers and temporary-housing assistance. Grants for home repairs and loans through the Small Business Administration for individuals and businesses also are available.

Officials at FEMA’s Baton Rouge headquarters told The Associated Press Monday that it was unclear whether Terrebonne residents hit by Rita were eligible for assistance. The parish remained under a disaster declaration from Hurricane Katrina but was not declared a disaster area for Rita. Officials were checking to see if residents were eligible for Rita help.

Stephanie Leger, director of state and federal relations for the state, said five parishes have been included for FEMA aid based on hurricane wind models that indicated they were most affected.

Leger said the state is pressing hard for FEMA to work quickly to include other devastated parishes in its disaster coverage, including Terrebonne. The state has drafted a letter to FEMA that should be sent out soon stating that "when we meant include all parishes, we meant all," said Leger.

"The problem is it’s FEMA’s assessment, and it’s up to them to do it," she said.

State Rep. Damon Baldone, D-Houma, said today that he has received calls about FEMA not declaring Terrebonne a disaster area, but he expects the parish’s status to change because "it’s obvious we’re a disaster."

"I would tell people not to worry. We’re getting disaster money. It’s going to happen," said Baldone. "It’s getting a lot of people shaken up for nothing because we’re definitely a disaster area. That is obvious, and FEMA will be here soon I have no doubt about it."

On Monday, Terrebonne Parish President Don Schwab said the administration has received lots of calls from residents who are angry they can’t get FEMA aid and wondering why the parish hasn’t been declared a disaster area.

Schwab said the federal government makes that decision, and local officials have nothing to do with it.

"I’m very upset," he said. "It’s not us that make the call."

Schwab said he thinks part of the delay is because FEMA went to southwestern Louisiana first to assess the damage and the agency’s officials haven’t had a chance to survey here. Schwab said he planned to talk with U.S. Sen. David Vitter, D-La., later Monday to about the delay.

Courier staff writer Jeremy Shapiro contributed to this story.

[Ixolib]

The key word is PREDICT. Now we all know that no prediction is 100% correct. A "forecast" is that...just a forecast, it's not set in stone. Common sense will tell you that. Take Southerngale for example. She evacuated an hour north of her home, thinking she'd be safe...did they expect 120mph winds that far north???? NO! There are just too many different forces in nature to have the ultimate perfect prediction. But to blame the NHC, imo is just plain wrong...we're only human and so are the forecasters.

And as far as people "figuring " that Katrina would have been like Camille, that's not the NHC's fault for their way of thinking. People have to learn to start doing a little more thinking for themselves than relying 100% word for word from forecasters or comparing everything to a past storm. Everyday is different, every storm is different.

Agree with you Mama. And actually, this blame game really has no foundation. Katrina's wake left consequences that WERE not foreseen. The answer is really as simple as that.

The benchmark in these parts BEFORE Katrina was obviously Camille. Her legecy went away on 8/29 and the new benchmark will be and is Katrina. Should an even more powerful storm strike this area - or even SE LA - at some point in the future, we will have even more and newer lessons to from that storm as well.

The bottom line is that NOBODY - individual, local, county, state, or federal - can effectively react to something for which there is no precedent. Stuff happens, and when it comes to extreme weather, I just can understand the concept of looking for or placing blame...

[curtadams]

The key word is PREDICT. Now we all know that no prediction is 100% correct. A "forecast" is that...just a forecast, it's not set in stone. Common sense will tell you that. Take Southerngale for example. She evacuated an hour north of her home, thinking she'd be safe...did they expect 120mph winds that far north???? NO! There are just too many different forces in nature to have the ultimate perfect prediction. But to blame the NHC, imo is just plain wrong...we're only human and so are the forecasters.

And as far as people "figuring " that Katrina would have been like Camille, that's not the NHC's fault for their way of thinking. People have to learn to start doing a little more thinking for themselves than relying 100% word for word from forecasters or comparing everything to a past storm. Everyday is different, every storm is different.

The forecast said "up to 28 feet". That implies no more. Most people have to rely on authoritative forecasters to give predictions - you can't expect everyone to develop the skills of even a semi-professional forecaster. As to Camille, how can you fault people figuring Katrina, a Cat 4, wouldn't be worse than Camille, which has always been held up as the example of the worst a US hurricane ever gets? People *have* to make decisions on when to evacuate and when not to, because you can't evacuate for every TS in the Atlantic, and most have no choice but to rely on the NHC and analogous institutions for information on that decision.

In any case, my point is that the forecast did cost lives. Had the NHC correctly forecast "SURGE APPROACHING 40 FEET POSSIBLE, FAR EXCEEDING CAMILLE" there would have been few deaths in MS and certainly not 200+. Since the scale of the surge surprised everybody, I'm not knocking their forecasting. But a more accurate forecast would have saved at least 200 lives.

A subtlety on the NHC forecast is that they effectively pad the wind speeds. The "surface wind" is defined as 10 meters up over open ocean. On land, with more resistance, and on the 1st or 2nd story, it will be considerably less. So people rarely experience even the forecast winds. My impression of surge forecasts is that they are padded too, although I can't cite anything to prove that. Note the "up to" teminology - warns people to be ready for it but can't be dinged if surge falls noticeably short. Small pads are, after all, an excellent way to handle uncertainty. IMO what's happening is that all the ex-Cat 5 storms have come in with such a surge it blew the NHC's pad.

[CajunMama]

I would think the NHC was forecasting on the data they had. Again, it was a FORECAST...it was not written in stone! Even ixolib who posted above you agreeds with me...and he rode out the storm in Biloxi and had water in his home which if I remember correctly is 30' above sea level.

[mf_dolphin]

Being a Florida Gulf coast resident (9 short city blocks away and 10ft ASL) you also have to remember that :

1. Storm surge figures do not include waves on top of the surge.

2. Because of the shallow depth of the gulf shelf, surge can be up to 25% higher than the SS scale. The water has no deep channel near shore to absorb the surge like the Atlantic.

I'd also like to point out that a lot of people made the decision to ride out Katrina/ Rita while they were at their peak. With a hurricane if you bet wrong you might just end up dead. Not a good bet IMHO.

[caribepr]

The forecast said "up to 28 feet". That implies no more. Most people have to rely on authoritative forecasters to give predictions - you can't expect everyone to develop the skills of even a semi-professional forecaster. As to Camille, how can you fault people figuring Katrina, a Cat 4, wouldn't be worse than Camille, which has always been held up as the example of the worst a US hurricane ever gets? People *have* to make decisions on when to evacuate and when not to, because you can't evacuate for every TS in the Atlantic, and most have no choice but to rely on the NHC and analogous institutions for information on that decision.

In any case, my point is that the forecast did cost lives. Had the NHC correctly forecast "SURGE APPROACHING 40 FEET POSSIBLE, FAR EXCEEDING CAMILLE" there would have been few deaths in MS and certainly not 200+. Since the scale of the surge surprised everybody, I'm not knocking their forecasting. But a more accurate forecast would have saved at least 200 lives.

A subtlety on the NHC forecast is that they effectively pad the wind speeds. The "surface wind" is defined as 10 meters up over open ocean. On land, with more resistance, and on the 1st or 2nd story, it will be considerably less. So people rarely experience even the forecast winds. My impression of surge forecasts is that they are padded too, although I can't cite anything to prove that. Note the "up to" teminology - warns people to be ready for it but can't be dinged if surge falls noticeably short. Small pads are, after all, an excellent way to handle uncertainty. IMO what's happening is that all the ex-Cat 5 storms have come in with such a surge it blew the NHC's pad.

(Sorry, the way I edited the quote it looks like Cajunmama wrote the above when it was Curtadams...)

You state that so authoritatively - but since we can't ask the dead people all the reasons they are dead, I will toss this up. If the NHC had said "surge approaching 40 feet possible far exceeding Camille" as per your wishes, I can safely bet that 200 people and lots more would have snorted and said Bull caa caa. When something horrific impacts your life it is hard to imagine anything worse.
The bar has been lifted this season. You can blame NHC, you can blame history, you can blame anyone you like, but anyone who would not evacuate when a surge is forecast at 28 feet (and assumes NO HIGHER as if there will be some sort of blockage on 29 or more feet?) and says, well, it seems about the same as Camille...will be either dead, or quoted, as I saw many times, as saying, I was foolish, I should have left, because I based it on Camille.
Or...they will blame everyone else. They probably should have left for Camille too, you know? Have you considered that just because someone made it through Camille, it wasn't the best decision they ever made?? Like, HEY, I live on the edge of Cameron Parish and I was FINE! Heck, I'd do it again. Well. There ya go. Sorry, but I'm really really sick of this arguement that flat out denies self responsibility and common sense. WAKE UP HUMANS!

[NorthGaWeather]

In any case, my point is that the forecast did cost lives. Had the NHC correctly forecast "SURGE APPROACHING 40 FEET POSSIBLE, FAR EXCEEDING CAMILLE" there would have been few deaths in MS and certainly not 200+. Since the scale of the surge surprised everybody, I'm not knocking their forecasting. But a more accurate forecast would have saved at least 200 lives.

Now your being silly. I've heard the offical high water mark may be 28ft, but we'll see. Of course we may see that mark rise in Pass Christian. How in the heck do you know their would have been fewer deaths. Its clearly an opinion of yours that has little back up. Those people would have stayed no matter what.

Most people expected a huge surge. Over 25ft. You posts doesn't deserve a reply but I can't help myself.

[TSmith274]

The NHC was slightly off on the landfall, but not by much. If I had to fault them in any way, it would be their innacurate prediction of the storm surge, in general. You need ask none other than The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The were told by the NHC to anticipate a certain level, but they were suprised by what they ended up getting, flooding the 9th ward once again.

I say good job NHC on the track. But they need to revise their thinking for storm surge in coastal Louisiana to account for the obvious detremental effects of the erroding coastline.

Have you ever heard the term "state of the art"? It means there is a limit to the forecasting ability of the most skilled meteorologist; a limit to the capability and accuracy of the best computer model. I've researched Atlantic hurricanes for more than thirty years; consider myself an authority on them......and honestly believe NHC's forecasts this season have been as accurate as humanly possible; including the SLOSH storm surge forecasts.

IMO some folks simply expect too much....expect an accuracy and level of individual warning that is simply unrealistic in 2005; a precise forecasting skill that is unnatainable with the current state of the art. Look friend....people didn't die during Katrina and Rita due to poor storm surge warnings from the National Hurricane Center. Instead they perished because 1) they were too stupid and/ or apathetic to listen to timely, excellent warnings and evacuation orders; 2) they were too old, young, physically or mentally disabled to escape on their own (in which case, the blood is on the hands of the people responsible for assisting such individuals escape and failed to do so).

NHC has given everyone living along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, and Florida coast a 110% effort this season; a professional example for hurricane forecasting excellence. To see them blamed and "nitpicked" over details beyond their control; beyond the current forecasting state of the art truly angers me......truly....

Perry W.

Perry, you make a very good point. But, I never said that people died because of poor storm surge predictions. It was reported on EVERY television station here in New Orleans that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was suprised by the surge. It's just a fact. How can you not agree that storm surge will change from year to year in Louisiana? We lose land equal in size to one football field every 30 minutes. If you think that this will have no effect on storm surge year-to-year, then I don't know what to say. Since hurricane Betsy in 1965, Louisiana has lost enough land to equal the size of the entire state of Delaware.

I thought my post was pretty nice to the NHC. I have nothing but respect for those people.

I guess my question is... how often are storm surge models updated? And would it be too much to ask for them to update the topography that goes into these models? I understand that no model will be perfect. And, I understand the hard work and effort that the people at the NHC put in. I understand all that. And, while it is in vogue to blame the people of Louisiana for living where they do... It's not hard to believe that the vast majority of people are not as "tuned in" as people on this board. So, why not estimate storm surge on the high side? What could that hurt?

[SouthernWx]

The forecast said "up to 28 feet". That implies no more. Most people have to rely on authoritative forecasters to give predictions - you can't expect everyone to develop the skills of even a semi-professional forecaster. As to Camille, how can you fault people figuring Katrina, a Cat 4, wouldn't be worse than Camille, which has always been held up as the example of the worst a US hurricane ever gets? People *have* to make decisions on when to evacuate and when not to, because you can't evacuate for every TS in the Atlantic, and most have no choice but to rely on the NHC and analogous institutions for information on that decision.

In any case, my point is that the forecast did cost lives. Had the NHC correctly forecast "SURGE APPROACHING 40 FEET POSSIBLE, FAR EXCEEDING CAMILLE" there would have been few deaths in MS and certainly not 200+. Since the scale of the surge surprised everybody, I'm not knocking their forecasting. But a more accurate forecast would have saved at least 200 lives.

A subtlety on the NHC forecast is that they effectively pad the wind speeds. The "surface wind" is defined as 10 meters up over open ocean. On land, with more resistance, and on the 1st or 2nd story, it will be considerably less. So people rarely experience even the forecast winds. My impression of surge forecasts is that they are padded too, although I can't cite anything to prove that. Note the "up to" teminology - warns people to be ready for it but can't be dinged if surge falls noticeably short. Small pads are, after all, an excellent way to handle uncertainty. IMO what's happening is that all the ex-Cat 5 storms have come in with such a surge it blew the NHC's pad.

Dear Lord, where do I begin???

1) Curt, how do you know the storm surge level was 30, 35, or 40 feet?? Are you a surveyer with NOAA or the US Army Corps of Engineers? Have you been to Waveland or Bay St Louis, MS since Katrina's landfall (I haven't yet, but plan to travel to the Mississippi coast in a few days to conduct own storm survey).

FACT: no one knows yet what the true storm surge height was in the Waveland area. At Gulfport harbor, it was 26' feet.....it may or MAY NOT have exceeded 28' feet in some areas. It also may have been a 26-28' storm surge with 10' "wind waves" on top.....which produces a water level of 35'+.

2) Even IF the true storm surge level was over 28' feet.....remember what I stated above? STATE OF THE ART!!! How in the devil can NHC forecast a storm surge of "UP TO 40 FEET"....when NO model data and NO past known hurricanes of similar intensity have produced a storm surge above 25'? Are they (NHC) supposed to be mindreaders or psychics? Let me tell you something friend.....when it comes to hurricanes, I'm about as knowledgeable as you'll find online, and I had no idea a 30'+ surge was possible in that area......not in a 927 mb hurricane. Again I repeat what I stated above. STATE OF THE ART......STATE OF THE ART. You can only forecast based on the data available.


3) Your claims that NHC "pads" a hurricane's sustained wind speeds is an OUT AND OUT FALSEHOOD!! It's completely false; a complete and utter falsehood. NHC IMO is too conservative in their intensity estimates; if anything, their estimates are TOO LOW. If they had padded Katrina at Mississippi landfall, they'd have advised an intensity of 150-155 mph......that's the pressure/relationship of a 927 mb hurricane. They only estimated sustained winds of 125-130 mph.....which again IMO is too LOW. I heard all the stories about hurricane Dennis "falling apart" before landfall....and after seeing the aftermath in person, the sustained winds IMO were at least 125-130 mph west of Navarre Beach.......not the 120 mph estimated by NHC in their landfall advisory.

Here's some good advice: don't post about something UNLESS you know what the heck you are posting about......because I DO KNOW what I'm posting about.

PW

[skysummit]

I really do not want to get into this conversation, but I have to give my opinion on one subject....Dennis's damage. Dennis's damage was NOT that of 130mph winds. I worked there for 8 days following landfall, and have went down EVERY street in Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach areas....even along the coast on Santa Rosa Island where no traffic was allowed. That was damage of 115-120mph like the NHC forecasted, maybe even less.

[SouthernWx]

I really do not want to get into this conversation, but I have to give my opinion on one subject....Dennis's damage. Dennis's damage was NOT that of 130mph winds. I worked there for 8 days following landfall, and have went down EVERY street in Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach areas....even along the coast on Santa Rosa Island where no traffic was allowed. That was damage of 115-120mph like the NHC forecasted, maybe even less.

We'll just have to disagree. Just west of Navarre Beach, I witnessed beach houses on stilts (above storm surge level) completely blown apart.....it was very reminiscent of Frederic's aftermath on Dauphin Island, Alabama in 1979. Dennis was at least a 110 kt hurricane IMO....albeit a very small one (core winds were less than 6 miles in width).....and I've been surveying wind damage since the late 1970's.

PW

[skysummit]

I really do not want to get into this conversation, but I have to give my opinion on one subject....Dennis's damage. Dennis's damage was NOT that of 130mph winds. I worked there for 8 days following landfall, and have went down EVERY street in Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach areas....even along the coast on Santa Rosa Island where no traffic was allowed. That was damage of 115-120mph like the NHC forecasted, maybe even less.

We'll just have to disagree. Just west of Navarre Beach, I witnessed beach houses on stilts (above storm surge level) completely blown apart.....it was very reminiscent of Frederic's aftermath on Dauphin Island, Alabama in 1979. Dennis was at least a 110 kt hurricane IMO....albeit a very small one (core winds were less than 6 miles in width).....and I've been surveying wind damage since the late 1970's.

PW

Good, professional reply. Thanks for your opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southernwx how strong is your thinking for the Max winds on Rita??? 897 the nhc said supports closer to 160 knots...I believe I seen in one of there Advisories.

[curtadams]

Now your being silly. I've heard the offical high water mark may be 28ft, but we'll see. Of course we may see that mark rise in Pass Christian. How in the heck do you know their would have been fewer deaths. Its clearly an opinion of yours that has little back up. Those people would have stayed no matter what.

Most people expected a huge surge. Over 25ft. You posts doesn't deserve a reply but I can't help myself.

Cantore - about as well-qualified to judge this as anybody - stayed in a building 27 feet about sea level according to the Army Corps. He was expecting to stay high and dry - but reported 8 feet of water in the building. That's a 35 foot surge! AND - not at the peak (he was in Biloxi or Gulfport, I forget which, not Waveland) AND - not in a bay or inlet that might have magnified. The Harrison county courthouse - 30 feet above sea level - got a foot. I have seen unconfirmed reports of 38 feet in Waveland. Not confirmed, but very believable in view of confirmed reports.

Who expected a surge over 25 ft? Certainly not the NHC - "up to 28 feet in particular areas". That's not "over 30 feet for 20+ miles of coast". Can you post a link to a professional who predicted anything like what happened? I don't think you'll find it. If you do, then the NHC *did* goof because their forecast doesn't express anything like 25+ feet over a wide area.

[curtadams]

1) Curt, how do you know the storm surge level was 30, 35, or 40 feet??

FACT: no one knows yet what the true storm surge height was in the Waveland area. At Gulfport harbor, it was 26' feet.....it may or MAY NOT have exceeded 28' feet in some areas. It also may have been a 26-28' storm surge with 10' "wind waves" on top.....which produces a water level of 35'+.

2) Even IF the true storm surge level was over 28' feet.....remember what I stated above? STATE OF THE ART!!! How in the devil can NHC forecast a storm surge of "UP TO 40 FEET"....when NO model data and NO past known hurricanes of similar intensity have produced a storm surge above 25'? Are they (NHC) supposed to be mindreaders or psychics? Let me tell you something friend.....when it comes to hurricanes, I'm about as knowledgeable as you'll find online, and I had no idea a 30'+ surge was possible in that area......not in a 927 mb hurricane. Again I repeat what I stated above. STATE OF THE ART......STATE OF THE ART. You can only forecast based on the data available.

3) Your claims that NHC "pads" a hurricane's sustained wind speeds is an OUT AND OUT FALSEHOOD!! It's completely false; a complete and utter falsehood. NHC IMO is too conservative in their intensity estimates; if anything, their estimates are TOO LOW. If they had padded Katrina at Mississippi landfall, they'd have advised an intensity of 150-155 mph......that's the pressure/relationship of a 927 mb hurricane. They only estimated sustained winds of 125-130 mph.....which again IMO is too LOW. I heard all the stories about hurricane Dennis "falling apart" before landfall....and after seeing the aftermath in person, the sustained winds IMO were at least 125-130 mph west of Navarre Beach.......not the 120 mph estimated by NHC in their landfall advisory.

1) I rely on reports from reliable observers. What else can I do? By that logic you can't talk about a windspeed unless you were out there with instruments. That's ridiculous.

2) I'm not blaming the NHC. I don't know what they should do now that we keep seeing hurricanes blow the surge models. No, they can't just make up numbers and I don't expect them to be psychic. But, at the same time, if their stated estimates come out way low, people will die. I'm sure they are far more concerned with it than any of us.

3) Read my post. The NHC's wind forecast is for 10 meters up over open ocean. That's going to be a considerably higher speed than will actually be experienced at ground level on land. Actual wind measurements support this. You just don't see wind measurements of the predicted speeds, even in TS and Cat 1 conditions that cause few or no failures of instrumentation.

You can't estimate wind speeds by looking at damage afterwards, except in the most crude fashion. And what's your calibration? Have you ever seen damage where the wind causing the damage was actually measured? I doubt it. All you can do is compare to other hurricanes - all of which have had the same definitional padding. I would suspect that gusts cause most of the damage anyway.

[timNms]

Some of you say they need to "rethink storm surge"? This should not even be an issue. I mean come on, we had two CAT5's churning across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. With that type of intensity everyone should know it is building a powerful storm surge.

In Pascagoula, they issued a mandetory evac for everyone south of HWY. 90. I am 2 miles inland and the surge reached my home. Everyone south of 90 was flooded. In some places there was 8 feet of water in homes.

What I do believe we have learned down here from Katrina, you can't compare one storm to another. If you do, you may lose your life. Camille was a major issue around here, but not anymore.

I can't remember who said it. I think it was either the mayor of Biloxi or the mayor of Gulfport "Camille killed more people on August 29, 2005 than she did on August 17, 1969". People in Mississippi used Camille's storm surge to determine whether to leave or stay. Katrina surprised many with her monster surge.

You are right. You can't compare one storm to another. I think many along our coastline learned that lesson the hard way. Hopefully, now, people will know that if they are threatened by a storm of any size, catagory, they'll consider getting out of harm's way (albeit getting out of harm's way may mean driving to Canada LOL)

[MWatkins]

Some of you say they need to "rethink storm surge"? This should not even be an issue. I mean come on, we had two CAT5's churning across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. With that type of intensity everyone should know it is building a powerful storm surge.

In Pascagoula, they issued a mandetory evac for everyone south of HWY. 90. I am 2 miles inland and the surge reached my home. Everyone south of 90 was flooded. In some places there was 8 feet of water in homes.

What I do believe we have learned down here from Katrina, you can't compare one storm to another. If you do, you may lose your life. Camille was a major issue around here, but not anymore.

I can't remember who said it. I think it was either the mayor of Biloxi or the mayor of Gulfport "Camille killed more people on August 29, 2005 than she did on August 17, 1969". People in Mississippi used Camille's storm surge to determine whether to leave or stay. Katrina surprised many with her monster surge.

You are right. You can't compare one storm to another. I think many along our coastline learned that lesson the hard way. Hopefully, now, people will know that if they are threatened by a storm of any size, catagory, they'll consider getting out of harm's way (albeit getting out of harm's way may mean driving to Canada LOL)

Tim,

You are 100000% right on with that assessment. I can't even begin to tell you how many folks down there think (or thought) that way.

We met with the EMS folks and the fire chief in Waveland that Sunday afternoon...and I think I actually have the Camille surge map he was showing us. He thought the fire station and the civil defense buildings would be dry because they didn't get any surge with Camille.

Both locations were completely engulfed with surge.

MW