99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[johngaltfla]

The 8:05 NHC Discussion clearly likes the chances for 99. Probably TD by late Wed. or early Thurs.

Well it won't be coming to Florida. Thats the good news

For us yes. For our gasoline tanks, er, too early to tell. But wow, what a price beating we've taken this season.

As it were, I'm afraid that every storm passing through the Yucatan Channel now will have all of us Floridians in a tither.

And until the storm hits land way, way west of us, I'll be one of those with their stomachs in knots.

[skysummit]

A TS by tomorrow evening and a hurricane the day after? I believe that's pushing it a bit.

[CHRISTY]

where do you think it will end up?

[Rainband]

In my opinion:
It's circulation and definition is increasing by the hour. All it takes is another massive convection blowup. Considering the next nightly convection blow-up is probably going to begin in the next three-six hours, I would actually be surprised if it is not a 50 mph Tropical Storm by 5 pm on Wednesday, and a hurricane as soon as 5 pm on Thursday. It's a real good thing they're sending their reconaissance airplane in tomorrow, otherwise none of the models will be able to initialize properly --even by tomorrow night, and we still won't have a clue where it's going. -vaffie

Doesn't look very good at this point. TD by friday Maybe.

[SouthFloridawx]

ummm where did it go...?

[CHRISTY]

is that the center were that last blow up of convection is ?

[skysummit]

is that the center were that last blow up of convection is ?

I believe it's JUST to the east of it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

No...And stop before you start...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I see a cold front digging fast by thurs-fri. The ridge doesn't build in
until saturday. therefore I expect a strong northerly component to 99L's
motion. As for the models, LBAR looks close to what I am estimating
given the cold front, but with a hard west turn 5 days out in addition.
But that hard west would take place once it reaches the FL big bend.

[vaffie]

A TS by tomorrow evening and a hurricane the day after? I believe that's pushing it a bit.

I don't really think so--you see, once the pressure falls below a certain threshold, which I think will happen after the next blowup--it will have convection continuously over it--and the conditions will then become ripe for VERY rapid intensification--so that my forecast is actually quite conservative. I really think it will be a hurricane by Thursday 11 am--in 38 hours--but that is going out on a limb. And don't think that the shear is a big issue--it's not--this thing is just going through it's daily cycle. You can clearly see a center of circulation now better than you have been able to until now, and the last two satellite images indicate that the base of the clouds of the next blowup are already beginning to build--so that it will happen perhaps sooner than I thought even--let's just say that after the eclipse, things will look really bad, and my prediction will look really weak.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For my forecast-Backup : For late Fri.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cold front temporarily erodes extent of ridge.
Ridge to build back by Saturday, but 99L likely sneaks by responding
to cold front before Sat.

[skysummit]

A TS by tomorrow evening and a hurricane the day after? I believe that's pushing it a bit.

I don't really think so--you see, once the pressure falls below a certain threshold, which I think will happen after the next blowup--it will have convection continuously over it--and the conditions will then become ripe for VERY rapid intensification--so that my forecast is actually quite conservative. I really think it will be a hurricane by Thursday 11 am--in 38 hours--but that is going out on a limb. And don't think that the shear is a big issue--it's not--this thing is just going through it's daily cycle. You can clearly see a center of circulation now better than you have been able to until now, and the last two satellite images indicate that the base of the clouds of the next blowup are already beginning to build--so that it will happen perhaps sooner than I thought even--let's just say that after the eclipse, things will look really bad, and my prediction will look really weak.

Hmmm....I see where you're coming from vafie. No doubt it will be interesting to see what happens over night tonight. If you're right, I'll definately give you kudos!

[Doc Seminole]

Dadgum........ 750+ posts for this thing? That is a beautiful thing.

At this writing, it looks to be heading in a general NNW direction, at least the convection is to this very untrained eye.


Doc Seminole

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The TAFB's location of 99L is based on current models, but with the
front the way it is and no ridge to push it west just yet (on Friday)
it may go north toward the E-GOM Coasts

[cinlfla]

At this writing, it looks to be heading in a general NNW direction, at least the convection is to this very untrained eye.

It looks as though the convection is heading NNW....God only knows where the center is, I am no longer able to find it.

[TS Zack]

Its not going to Tampa Bay!

The trough will bypass it to the North and it should continue on a Westward heading. It looks like your out of the woods but still never let your guard down.

[Rainband]

Its not going to Tampa Bay!

The trough will bypass it to the North and it should continue on a Westward heading. It looks like your out of the woods but still never let your guard down.

Why the evil look?? You need to chill Zack.

[Stratosphere747]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

No...And stop before you start...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I see a cold front digging fast by thurs-fri. The ridge doesn't build in
until saturday. therefore I expect a strong northerly component to 99L's
motion. As for the models, LBAR looks close to what I am estimating
given the cold front, but with a hard west turn 5 days out in addition.
But that hard west would take place once it reaches the FL big bend.

TBHurricane...

Hard to take a negative stand towards you, as you seem to be a really great individual. So I'll play nice...

LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.

Nothing wrong with the rest of you thoughts...

[vaffie]

Hmmm....I see where you're coming from vafie. No doubt it will be interesting to see what happens over night tonight. If you're right, I'll definately give you kudos!

I really appreciate that, skysummit--I value your posts, I must tell you. But if I'm right, I will wish I wasn't right, because it is generally heading northwest right now, extrapolated to the Texas coast--and my family and I are still exhausted from the last evacuation so that this time I don't know what we'll do--no matter how strong or close it moves to us. I wish it would go away, but my scientific side (I'm an MD/PhD student) tells me that this, no matter how I feel or would like to believe, will be a deadly monster like the last two Gulf storms and is headed in my general direction.

[Rainband]

Wait...Is 99L really moving north instead of wnw?

No...And stop before you start...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I see a cold front digging fast by thurs-fri. The ridge doesn't build in
until saturday. therefore I expect a strong northerly component to 99L's
motion. As for the models, LBAR looks close to what I am estimating
given the cold front, but with a hard west turn 5 days out in addition.
But that hard west would take place once it reaches the FL big bend.

TBHurricane...

Hard to take a negative stand towards you, as you seem to be a really great individual. So I'll play nice...

LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.

Nothing wrong with the rest of you thoughts...

Smart Move