99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Swimdude]

With the amount of discussion, you'd think the WMO is going to retire "99L" this year.

Sure does feel like that, doesn't it?

[tailgater]

"Ahhh screw it...I dont care anymore...I've lost too much sanity
tracking this crazy beast

A quick synopsis....
Could 99L not survive? If so then
Dr. Robotnik's mean bean machine continues to put the mystery in
99L.
The grandeur of chocolate-driven elation keeps my heart pumping
at record pace...Exhilaration in its strangest sense is what chocolate
translates into. My own entropy is increasing at a rapid rate of unusual
ferocity. Time for a little reduction, better control my lattice energy.
Time for me to bump down my electron energy. TTYL my stormchasing
fellows...

The smell of trees permeates my atmosphere-- the unparalleled
grandeur of these phenomina culminating in one dignified" TB HURRICANE

I'm not sure but me thinks that qualifies as a rant

[Hyperstorm]

This evening the tropical wave over the Central Caribbean is showing promising signs of becoming better organized very soon. Even though satellite imagery right now indicates that the convection associated with the tropical wave has diminished greatly, the system is showing major signs of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next day or so...NW Caribbean climatology, Wet MJO, Evacuation of air, High-Octane fuel and most importantly a vigorous MLC.

OK, so why does the wave appear to have dissipated?

The wave has NOT dissipated. It is there and in fact, a vigorous MLC appears to have developed from the afternoon thunderstorms just south of Jamaica.

Why has the convection diminished?

Diurnal minimum. This is a process in which convection weakens during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is VERY typical of these developing disturbances.

We are currently heading into the nocturnal maxima (which is the opposite of above) and I totally expect an explosion of thunderstorms to begin occuring just SW of Jamaica after the eclipse is over. According to the climatology of these types of disturbances, this mass of thunderstorms should expand greatly during the morning hours and come 12 hours, we'll be seeing a totally different picture. Usually, if UL conditions are favorable (as they are now), when we see an explosion of thunderstorms over a MLC, it drops down to the surface. This will most likely occur once those thunderstorms get going tomorrow. (One thing to note, however, is that sometimes these systems take a couple of days of "pulsing" before a true LLC develops, i.e. Gordon 2000, even if they look impressive on satellite. It has been a couple of days with this system "pulsing" already.)

There is an ULL just NW of Cuba that is currently providing the outflow for this system. This ULL is forecast by the models to move NW and northward, which should allow this incipient disturbance to develop. Hopefully the NHC does not cancel the reconaissance mission early tomorrow morning (they generally do changes between 6-8am) if the satellite picture is not convincing. Give it time for the flare-up tonight to expand and organize.

*This same scenario (of dissipating convection during the night) we saw with a tropical wave in 2003 over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The reconaissance mission was cancelled early in the morning because convection didn't appear too widespread in coverage (the blow-up was just beginning). After the convection continued expanding that same day, a ship reported a west wind. That was enough for the NHC to upgrade to a tropical depression.

I won't comment much on track since it still has not been initialized well by the models, but it appears that (as many have pointed out already) the system will be near the Yucatan by the weekend with a WNW heading under a developing ridge over the SE United States...

[TS Zack]

It might not explode but the low-level center is definitely becoming better organized at this time. Give it some time.

If you can remember, Katrina was 4 very small thunderstorms in her formative stage.

[EFrancis]

All signs are pointing to this being Stan by Thursday. Not a good thing.

[skysummit]

It might not explode but the low-level center is definitely becoming better organized at this time. Give it some time.

If you can remember, Katrina was 4 very small thunderstorms in her formative stage.

I agree Zack. Everyone wrote off Katrina at this stage, and look what happened. Just give him a little time in a day or two and he'll get it together.

[lacyclone]

Great, just the news I was waiting to hear. Our local met mentioned that this system bears watching. He had to add that he didn't "want to scare anyone" or say that it was coming our way, but we did need to keep an eye on it. I'm still a newbie as far as forcasting and watching storms, so I don't post often. I just read and learn. My gut, however, is that this is going to develop and become another gulf coast threat. My nerves are already on edge--I hope my gut is wrong....but it rarely is.

[Starburst]

lacyclone at this point and time all local mets are hyped and saying it is coming our way from Mexico to Florida do not let the local forecasters hype you up just watch and be prepared to act if necessary. Nobody knows at this point were it is going but God!

[skysummit]

Great, just the news I was waiting to hear. Our local met mentioned that this system bears watching. He had to add that he didn't "want to scare anyone" or say that it was coming our way, but we did need to keep an eye on it. I'm still a newbie as far as forcasting and watching storms, so I don't post often. I just read and learn. My gut, however, is that this is going to develop and become another gulf coast threat. My nerves are already on edge--I hope my gut is wrong....but it rarely is.

Well, at least your mets up there acknowledge the system. Down here, it will absolutely not be a problem for La....kinda like Katrina and Rita.

[hicksta]

Great, just the news I was waiting to hear. Our local met mentioned that this system bears watching. He had to add that he didn't "want to scare anyone" or say that it was coming our way, but we did need to keep an eye on it. I'm still a newbie as far as forcasting and watching storms, so I don't post often. I just read and learn. My gut, however, is that this is going to develop and become another gulf coast threat. My nerves are already on edge--I hope my gut is wrong....but it rarely is.

Well, at least your mets up there acknowledge the system. Down here, it will absolutely not be a problem for La....kinda like Katrina and Rita.

DONT JYNX IT!!!!

[Nexus]

You are absolutely correct Hyperstorm.

There is a large burst of convection in the first frame after the eclipse:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Cookiely]

This is from Tampa NWS forecast discussion.
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SETTING UP AN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZE FOR SCATTERED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMING
ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEWEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING A
WAVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE HIGH INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF RAIN. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME AND WAIT TO SEE IF
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
Is the wave they refer to invest 99???????????

[arlwx]

YES!!! LET'S JINX IT BY WATCHING UNTIL IT DISAPPEARS!!!

Seriously, at the rate it is going I would not be too surprised if Stan did not show up until Saturday or so.

[Ixolib]

It might not explode but the low-level center is definitely becoming better organized at this time. Give it some time.

If you can remember, Katrina was 4 very small thunderstorms in her formative stage.

How true... And THAT is what gives so much drive to watching the tropics. To see something go from minimal tstm activity to a huge cyclone in only a few days is truly seeing nature do its amazing thing.

[fci]

All signs are pointing to this being Stan by Thursday. Not a good thing.

And you support the "All signs are pointing to this being Stan by Thursday" statement with???

[O Town]

Convection in eastern carb. does look good this morning. But I am having a hard time with where it went. I see 3 areas of convection. And what is with the one going north between Cuba and Hiati? I think 99L is still the one farthest to the west in the middle. Correct?

[skysummit]

Geez oh geez...WWL in Nola has some new gal as a met. I guess they replaced David Bernard with her. She QUICKLY talked about AL99. All she said was recon was scheduled to investigate it today, but they don't expect it to develop at all. Last night, they say there was no chance it could affect the northern gulf coast. Will they EVER learn??? These are the EXACT same comments they made about Katrina and Rita. What the hell is wrong with them!?!?!?

[cycloneye]

Convection in eastern carb. does look good this morning. But I am having a hard time with where it went. I see 3 areas of convection. And what is with the one going north between Cuba and Hiati? I think 99L is still the one farthest to the west in the middle. Correct?

99L is the area SW of Jamaica where convection is more prominent this morning.Let's wait for visible images to see better how the structure of the system looks like.

[beachbum_al]

Here in the Alabama Coast they have been talking about since day one. It is something to watch and monitor but right now not get over excited. (which is hard to do)

[skysummit]

Here in the Alabama Coast they have been talking about since day one. It is something to watch and monitor but right now not get over excited. (which is hard to do)

At least they acknowledge it. Here, they're getting famous for giving people a false sense of security. I can't believe they're still doing this given everything that has happened.