Wave in Central Tropical Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Hostil conditions are ahead of this wave as it is noted at water vapor however the wave has flared in the past 6 hours.It has a weak low with it that for days has been void of convection because of the strong shear caused by a trough to it's west.We dont lose anything if we watch what occurs with it as it moves mainly westward towards the lesser antilles.Persistance of convection,building convection near the low,shear to diminuish is what we have to look for to see if this wave develops or not.

[Ixolib]

And the fun just goes on and on and on and on.....

[skysummit]

Jingle Bells
Low Levels Smell,
The tropics are no fun,
Leave us alone,
Storms from abroad,
Or our coastlines will be done.

[Brent]

It's pretty far north...

Fish???

[krysof]

It's pretty far north...

Fish???

won't make it far north, monster ridge developing

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2005 is neverending...

[cycloneye]

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROHIBITIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



10:30 PM TWO.Nothing new from pasts outlooks.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 45 WEST. IT IS IN THE PROXIMITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. SO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD
THETA-E AND OMEGA VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAINLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

The above from discussion from NWS San Juan.It promises to be a wet end of the week as wave arrives.

[Steve H.]

But we know that the low and associated Philippe remnants will get picked up by the front and taken out to the NE. After that departs the ridge will build in, allowing for development of the wave and associated low presssure approaching the central Atlantic, assuming it holds together. The wave is actually quite impressive and extends quite far south to the ITCZ and north to 25. This could be quite a sizeable storm if conditions improve for development.

[Hyperstorm]

Even though the tropical wave just southwest of the Cape Verde islands, near 10N, 33W is not being talked about in the Tropical Weather Outlook by the NHC, this is the system that is catching my attention the most.

This tropical wave definitely has a broad low level circulation with it and thunderstorms have been building all throughout the system this evening. There is currently moderate easterly shear that is displacing the majority of the convection to the west of the main core of the system. I haven't checked the shear forecasts for the next few days, but it appears that the current easterly shear is not prohibitively strong.

We will only have to wait if thunderstorms persist with this one during the day tomorrow. If it does, it will definitely become worthy of continued monitoring...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Hyperstorm...That system near 12/35 is looking very good. In seems to have a LLC. If that shear can stay low it should develop. That system to its northwest it could develop if the enviroment improves. That system in the Caribbean looks like it needs a few more days.

[cycloneye]

The wave around 47w is of no more mention at the TWO.Conditions remain hostil for that wave to try to develop.About the wave behind that Hyperstorm mentions convection has decreased but still it has a good signature.Let's see what will occur with that wave in the next few days.However what is a given is a good deal of rain in the weekend for the eastern caribbean islands as the wave around 47w moves thru interacting with the trough.

[Steve H.]

Luis, I am amzed that it was ignored in this mornings TWO. This wave at 14N/45W looks to be the next player, and it is firing convection around a slowly developing circulation. I dunno, maybe its me, but this seems like quite an impressive wave, and once the UL conditions improve this could become quite a worry for the islands and east coast US IMO.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, Cycloneye. The wave near 10N, 35W has lost the majority of its thunderstorms overnight, which is great news as this is an indication of no immediate development. It certainly has exposed a nice low-level circulation. As you know, this is the right time of day for thunderstorm development over water, and since it did not do so, this means that the system has encountered outside influences, i.e. dry air.

[Weathermaster]

Showers has incerease this morning in the base of this tropical Wave. The through ahead of it is weakening. Something may develops later.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/st ... verlay=off

[caribepr]

The wave around 47w is of no more mention at the TWO.Conditions remain hostil for that wave to try to develop.About the wave behind that Hyperstorm mentions convection has decreased but still it has a good signature.Let's see what will occur with that wave in the next few days.However what is a given is a good deal of rain in the weekend for the eastern caribbean islands as the wave around 47w moves thru interacting with the trough.

Luis, it's been so hot...I think the rain will just evaporate and we'll just be covered in a cloudy steam!
My *cold* water is hot enough to burn when it first comes out of the faucet and water at the beach is almost like being in a hot tub. No one here is saying the words...We want r*** because of what always happens when we do. The weekend will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

The wave around 47w is of no more mention at the TWO.Conditions remain hostil for that wave to try to develop.About the wave behind that Hyperstorm mentions convection has decreased but still it has a good signature.Let's see what will occur with that wave in the next few days.However what is a given is a good deal of rain in the weekend for the eastern caribbean islands as the wave around 47w moves thru interacting with the trough.

Luis, it's been so hot...I think the rain will just evaporate and we'll just be covered in a cloudy steam!
My *cold* water is hot enough to burn when it first comes out of the faucet and water at the beach is almost like being in a hot tub. No one here is saying the words...We want r*** because of what always happens when we do. The weekend will be interesting.

Yes agree with you that it is very steamy around all the area of the NE Caribbean as winds are variable and not the usual trade wind regime which brings to us pleasant temps and gentel brezzes.That is caused by the big trough in the atlantic which blocks those trades.

[caribepr]

The wave around 47w is of no more mention at the TWO.Conditions remain hostil for that wave to try to develop.About the wave behind that Hyperstorm mentions convection has decreased but still it has a good signature.Let's see what will occur with that wave in the next few days.However what is a given is a good deal of rain in the weekend for the eastern caribbean islands as the wave around 47w moves thru interacting with the trough.

Luis, it's been so hot...I think the rain will just evaporate and we'll just be covered in a cloudy steam!
My *cold* water is hot enough to burn when it first comes out of the faucet and water at the beach is almost like being in a hot tub. No one here is saying the words...We want r*** because of what always happens when we do. The weekend will be interesting.

Yes agree with you that it is very steamy around all the area of the NE Caribbean as winds are variable and not the usual trade wind regime which brings to us pleasant temps and gentel brezzes.That is caused by the big trough in the atlantic which blocks those trades.

You know weather is weird in the islands when you decide where to go for happy hour by hearing where there just might be some breeze!

[Weathermaster]

The tropical wave look a little healthier this afternoon, especially in its base.

Maybe the shear has decrease somewhat in that area. I think the islands will receive at least some good showers from this wave.

[abajan]

...I think the islands will receive at least some good showers from this wave.

Sounds good to me!
We'd be thankful for anything to cool down this heat we've been getting lately.