99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

jhamps10 · #801 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:33 am

[/quote]At least they acknowledge it. Here, they're getting famous for giving people a false sense of security. I can't believe they're still doing this given everything that has happened.[/quote]

Well no offense, is there another channel that you could watch, (wait just realized most NOLA stations are still off the air) but TV mets ALL the way in St. Louis are keeping an eye on it, so I would seriously be thinking about changing the source of your info down there.

no advance · #802 Postby **no advance** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:45 am

Thanks Hyper for your observations. Looks to be doing what you assumed/

Hyperstorm · #803 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:53 am

Well, sadly...knowing how the NHC handles these systems...I am pretty sure that the reconaissance mission is being cancelled early this morning. The blow-up of convection is just beginning and it should very well expand into later this morning and early afternoon, but they won't look into that. They will probably regret it later this afternoon as the convection increases in organization.

Looking at the latest imagery, it appears that the system has encountered an unexpected easterly surge on the southern side. This surge of strong easterlies came up through the north coast of South America and may be a detrimental factor in its development if it reaches the scope of the system. At the very least, it is disrupting the inflow from the south. I will be watching this because if it does, it could destroy its development potential.

#804 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:55 am

jhamps10 wrote:
skysummit wrote:At least they acknowledge it. Here, they're getting famous for giving people a false sense of security. I can't believe they're still doing this given everything that has happened.

Well no offense, is there another channel that you could watch, (wait just realized most NOLA stations are still off the air) but TV mets ALL the way in St. Louis are keeping an eye on it, so I would seriously be thinking about changing the source of your info down there.

Nah....they're all on the air down here. They're just like that. They never give much attention to disturbances unless it's a day or two away, then some still say "there's no need to panic". I know what's going on in the tropics, so I pay no mind to them. It's just that people who do not know what's going on are constantly getting a false sense of security. Something really needs to get done.

Thunder44 · #805 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:56 am

8:05am TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS EARLIER AND
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF THE WAVE NEAR 19N74W. THIS AREA
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

#806 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:04 am

The models for the most part seem to think 99L will go into Mexico.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

#807 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:17 am

Not really that useful right now, LBAR!!!!!!!! :shoot:

DAVE440 · #808 Postby **DAVE440** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:18 am

WOW!! We're up to 41 pages for a wav! LOL!!

All i know is the ULL over florida is positioned perfectly to kick the
convection from the south out to our east and away from land.

Might get some rain later on today...but without that ULL sitting
exatly where it is...it would probably be raining here right now.

We should start a poll. How many pages long will this thread get haha...

#809 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:23 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050928 1200 050929 0000 050929 1200 050930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 79.7W 17.6N 81.7W 18.4N 83.0W 18.7N 84.0W
BAMM 16.5N 79.7W 17.7N 81.9W 18.7N 83.5W 19.2N 84.6W
A98E 16.5N 79.7W 17.6N 81.3W 18.6N 82.6W 19.4N 83.9W
LBAR 16.5N 79.7W 18.0N 81.3W 19.6N 82.1W 21.1N 82.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050930 1200 051001 1200 051002 1200 051003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 85.0W 18.7N 87.4W 18.7N 90.5W 18.4N 94.0W
BAMM 19.4N 85.7W 19.8N 88.3W 20.3N 91.7W 20.3N 95.3W
A98E 19.9N 85.0W 22.0N 87.4W 23.7N 90.6W 24.8N 95.1W
LBAR 22.2N 83.4W 25.3N 83.8W 28.4N 85.1W 29.2N 86.1W
SHIP 59KTS 76KTS 83KTS 86KTS
DSHP 59KTS 48KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 75.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Models.Right now the models are not important as there is no well defned LLC but I only post the runs for information to the members.

flhurricaneguy · #810 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:32 am

well isnt the bamm the most acurate at the location of this wave?

flhurricaneguy · #811 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:33 am

BAMM -- mid layer Beta Advection Model. For weaker to moderate-strength storms in the deep tropics. Same shortcomings as the BAMD model above. Don't use it north fo 20N.

CHRISTY · #812 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:37 am

i think until this thing gets it act together if at all were it goes is up in air!

#813 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:39 am

its going poof!

flhurricaneguy · #814 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:41 am

Dont jinx it yet BOCA, you know everyone was saying that about katrina before she formed.

CHRISTY · #815 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:11 am

seems to be going poof!!!!

rockyman · #816 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:26 am

CHRISTY wrote:seems to be going poof!!!!

How so? Convection is still there and increasing, upper level winds are becoming more favorable, it's moving into a climatologically favored area, there is a low level spin, the NHC still has recon scheduled, NHC models are still being run, it's still a "danger zone" as of 4am this morning...those are my reasons why I think it isn't going "poof"...please tell your reasons why you think it is going poof...I agree that it hasn't "taken off" like some storm-mongerers were saying yesterday, but I think it's far from poofing out.

By the way, thanks CHRISTY for your enthusiasm! We need a little youthful enthusiasm to balance out the old curmudgeons on the board.

#817 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:26 am

FLIGHT ONE
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 28/1345Z
D. 17N AND 80W
E. 28/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

This is the flight that is supposed to be on the air right now as the plan says 13:45z or 945 AM EDT but I haved not seen any indication that it has taken off so I assume it was cancelled and it is no surprise based on the presentation this morning on sat pics.

SunnyThoughts · #818 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:33 am

Dr. Lyons on TWC did say they had cancelled recon this morning. I only caught the end of what he was saying, but it sounded as if the situation warranted...possible recon this afternoon.

boca · #819 Postby **boca** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:38 am

It's not going poof yet convection is increasing in the area.

Nimbus · #820 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:43 am

The disturbance has been heading straight for Belize. Stan will make landfall on the Yucatan without tracking north of 20 :roll:

99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online