99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

flhurricaneguy · #821 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:46 am

says who?

rockyman · #822 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:49 am

Nimbus wrote:The disturbance has been heading straight for Belize. Stan will make landfall on the Yucatan without tracking north of 20

What? Current direction is ABSOLUTELY no indication of future direction...If it were, we'd just be able to XTRAP the motion and forget forecast models...I'm assuming you have more reasons for this bold statement...please expound...

Also, I'm assuming that since you are calling this sytem "Stan," you believe it will strengthen to at least a tropical storm...in such case, I'd really want to look at the steering currents for a tropical storm (which are usually different from the steering currents for an open wave). Here is where I get the information:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

CHRISTY · #823 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:51 am

the upper low over florida is pulling down some very dry air into the gulf of mexico with some of it already nosing into the far northwest caribbean near the yucatan channel! so while there are a lot of good reasons for this system to develope into a tropical cyclone-if it does't hurry up the environment may not be all that conducive for it in another 48 hours.

Website · #824 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:58 am

It needs to get persistent convection or it's not gonna do squat.

*yawn*

susan · #825 Postby **susan** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:59 am

Yawn? I am doing the happy dance if this storm decides to disappear...

KatDaddy · #826 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:00 am

Good! Great! I hope we are complete done with hurricane season for TX and LA!

#827 Postby **Roxy** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:04 am

Is convection refiring?

Or has it been doing that all morning?

CHRISTY · #828 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:05 am

it looks like it

jax · #829 Postby **jax** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:06 am

KatDaddy wrote:Good! Great! I hope we are complete done with hurricane season for TX and LA!

you mean LA, MS and AL... Little bit of texas...

CHRISTY · #830 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:11 am

susan · #831 Postby **susan** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:11 am

No, all of Texas.. :wink:

We are still caring for Katrina's victims and now Rita's....

rockyman · #832 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:12 am

CHRISTY wrote:the upper low over florida is pulling down some very dry air into the gulf of mexico with some of it already nosing into the far northwest caribbean near the yucatan channel! so while there are a lot of good reasons for this system to develope into a tropical cyclone-if it does't hurry up the environment may not be all that conducive for it in another 48 hours.

Thanks, CHRISTY! That's more like it!! I really love it when someone presents their opinion and BACKS IT UP with reasoning...I had not noticed all of that dry air in the Gomex...you might be onto something

CHRISTY · #833 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:13 am

#834 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:15 am

BNT20 KNHC 281511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING... AND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

vaffie · #835 Postby **vaffie** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:17 am

If anyone's interested, I've created a poll to find out what everyone thinks will be the pressure that Recon finds on Thursday morning.

Website · #836 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:20 am

OK... so it's better organized and there's a weak circulation but recon was cancelled?

Color me baffled.

#837 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:22 am

Brent wrote:OK... so it's better organized and there's a weak circulation but recon was cancelled?

Color me baffled.

There is another recon flight that is supposed to take off around 00:00z tonight so we will be watching if that one takes off tonight.

Derek Ortt · #838 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:24 am

at tomorrow morning, a 15 and an 18Z fix

#839 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:28 am

FLIGHT TWO
A. 29/0500Z
B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 29/0000Z
D. 18N AND 81.5W
E. 29/0400-0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

Above is the next mission that is tentative planed for later tonight at 00:00z the takeoff and early tommorow morning.Let's see if this one goes or not.

#840 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:29 am

Yesterday's LLC looks to be under the burst of convection to the SW of Jamaica. It's very weak, though. The ULC is to the east and also much weaker. It's hard for a storm to form with convection over such a wide area - no focal point.

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