My fear for Houston

[Ixolib]

Very true, but we are only leaving if its a 4/5. If it is a 1/2/3. Then we are going to friends house 20 feet above sea level and ridin her out.

A question -- since you'll have to evacuate 2-3 days before the hurricane hits, how are you going to be able to tell that today's strong TS or Cat 1 won't be tomorrow's or the next day's Cat 5? We just can't predict intensity well 2-3 days out when you'll have to make that decision. So if you're in a surge zone (as you are), then you'll need to go even with a strong TS 2-3 days out. If you wait until the day it hits to make your decision to evacuate when it strengthens to that Cat 3-4-5 then you'll be dead.

And also, a cat 5 could be downgraded to a 3 - but as has been proven with Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, the huge surge seems to maintain it's levels all the way to landfall. In this scenario, being only 20 feet above MSL may not be enough - even if it is "only" a cat 3.

[wxman57]

Very true, but we are only leaving if its a 4/5. If it is a 1/2/3. Then we are going to friends house 20 feet above sea level and ridin her out.

A question -- since you'll have to evacuate 2-3 days before the hurricane hits, how are you going to be able to tell that today's strong TS or Cat 1 won't be tomorrow's or the next day's Cat 5? We just can't predict intensity well 2-3 days out when you'll have to make that decision. So if you're in a surge zone (as you are), then you'll need to go even with a strong TS 2-3 days out. If you wait until the day it hits to make your decision to evacuate when it strengthens to that Cat 3-4-5 then you'll be dead.

And also, a cat 5 could be downgraded to a 3 - but as has been proven with Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, the huge surge seems to maintain it's levels all the way to landfall. In this scenario, being only 20 feet above MSL may not be enough - even if it is "only" a cat 3.

I'd also note that a Cat 3 could produce a 20-25 foot storm surge across western Galveston Bay into Kemah. The surge would be significantly amplified in the bay.

[Ixolib]

Very true, but we are only leaving if its a 4/5. If it is a 1/2/3. Then we are going to friends house 20 feet above sea level and ridin her out.

A question -- since you'll have to evacuate 2-3 days before the hurricane hits, how are you going to be able to tell that today's strong TS or Cat 1 won't be tomorrow's or the next day's Cat 5? We just can't predict intensity well 2-3 days out when you'll have to make that decision. So if you're in a surge zone (as you are), then you'll need to go even with a strong TS 2-3 days out. If you wait until the day it hits to make your decision to evacuate when it strengthens to that Cat 3-4-5 then you'll be dead.

And also, a cat 5 could be downgraded to a 3 - but as has been proven with Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, the huge surge seems to maintain it's levels all the way to landfall. In this scenario, being only 20 feet above MSL may not be enough - even if it is "only" a cat 3.

I'd also note that a Cat 3 could produce a 20-25 foot storm surge across western Galveston Bay into Kemah. The surge would be significantly amplified in the bay.

Good point. I believe one of the most valuable lessons of this season ought to be the lesson of surge consideration equally (if not more so) than conisderations of wind speed. Seems to me that surge potential is largely mis-understood and under rated by the general public (self included). I'm hopeful this board (and the media!!) in the coming months - and certainly before the '06 season - will offer plenty of discussion on the topic and understanding of storm surge.

[hicksta]

Very true, but we are only leaving if its a 4/5. If it is a 1/2/3. Then we are going to friends house 20 feet above sea level and ridin her out.

A question -- since you'll have to evacuate 2-3 days before the hurricane hits, how are you going to be able to tell that today's strong TS or Cat 1 won't be tomorrow's or the next day's Cat 5? We just can't predict intensity well 2-3 days out when you'll have to make that decision. So if you're in a surge zone (as you are), then you'll need to go even with a strong TS 2-3 days out. If you wait until the day it hits to make your decision to evacuate when it strengthens to that Cat 3-4-5 then you'll be dead.

And also, a cat 5 could be downgraded to a 3 - but as has been proven with Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, the huge surge seems to maintain it's levels all the way to landfall. In this scenario, being only 20 feet above MSL may not be enough - even if it is "only" a cat 3.

Correct. but if its like a Alicia. Then we will ride her out. But if its in the gulf and its a rita/Katrina we will leave asap.

[tnauhater]

I have lived in Mobile for 42 years. Been through several storms and many near misses. The rule of thumb used to be if on high ground in a sturdy home, stay put. If in low lying area or mobile home, evacuate. It seems a bit overblown to try and evacuate whole cities with the exception of New Orleans. I realize wind can cause severe damage, but rarely does it produce death for the well prepared individual. I would also like to add that many people blame the gov't for not providing basic needs after a storm and they do need to improve, however, we are all taught what we should do in the event of a storm. I have heard over & over about buying basic necessities and storing water, etc. I would have no one to blame but myself for not being prepared. I realize there are individuals who cannot provide for themselves and there should be help for those people.

I don't know why the change in philosophy on evacuations but maybe the media hype or legal reasons have something to do with it but it is ridiculous. In Alabama our Governor ordered a mandatory evacuation of all of Mobile County for hurricane Dennis in July. The north part of the county is 40 to 50 miles inland. Just plain overdone. I have always live by the rule of thumb if on high ground in a sturdy structure stay put but stock up and be prepared.

[hicksta]

The mayor needs to learn from his mistakes this time.. It took my friend 30 hours on 45 to go from League city to Conroe. That is not right....

[Ixolib]

I have lived in Mobile for 42 years. Been through several storms and many near misses. The rule of thumb used to be if on high ground in a sturdy home, stay put. If in low lying area or mobile home, evacuate. It seems a bit overblown to try and evacuate whole cities with the exception of New Orleans. I realize wind can cause severe damage, but rarely does it produce death for the well prepared individual. I would also like to add that many people blame the gov't for not providing basic needs after a storm and they do need to improve, however, we are all taught what we should do in the event of a storm. I have heard over & over about buying basic necessities and storing water, etc. I would have no one to blame but myself for not being prepared. I realize there are individuals who cannot provide for themselves and there should be help for those people.

I don't know why the change in philosophy on evacuations but maybe the media hype or legal reasons have something to do with it but it is ridiculous. In Alabama our Governor ordered a mandatory evacuation of all of Mobile County for hurricane Dennis in July. The north part of the county is 40 to 50 miles inland. Just plain overdone. I have always live by the rule of thumb if on high ground in a sturdy structure stay put but stock up and be prepared.

Great post, tnauhater... Unfortunately but realisticly, the new and difficult-to-answer question will now be, however, what is the definition of "high ground"? My new definition, post-Katrina, is anything below 40 feet should be considered "low-lying". (Isn't that a daunting thought!!??) Maybe lower on coastlines boardering the deeper Atlantic, but surely on the shallower coastlines of the GOM. BTW... Love your viewpoint on self-preservation - especially in the early hours and days following a major landfall. Folks who are going to live in hurricane-prone areas MUST have a plan to take care of their own business - especially early on!!

[susan]

There is no easy answer since parts of Houston flood. Anyone who lived along some of those bayous needed out too. What I fail to understand is people well past the point of a storm surge threat leaving the same time Galveston County and people along Galveston Bay are being told to leave...That was the problem and perhaps the mayors of Spring, Conroe, Katy, Sugar Land and points north and west of that should rethink their plans along with Bill White.

[jasons2k]

The mayor needs to learn from his mistakes this time.. It took my friend 30 hours on 45 to go from League city to Conroe. That is not right....

They will, they are working on it. But one thing to note - as Judge Eckels pointed out - he and The Mayor of Houston could have only done so much - you cannot help the traffic in Houston proper when the backup is caused by merging lanes 50 miles north - way beyond their jurisduction. The backup was 250 miles all the way to Dallas; that's not something the Houston Mayor can control.

It's a TXDot issue, not the Mayor's, but a task force is being appointed to coordinate future efforts amongst state, county, and city officals.

[susan]

I never understood evacuation routes such as 146 which are full of traffic lights. I was on Beltway 8 north and the reason we sat for hours was traffic lights. 5 cars got through before the light turned red. That was insane.

[Roxy]

I never understood evacuation routes such as 146 which are full of traffic lights. I was on Beltway 8 north and the reason we sat for hours was traffic lights. 5 cars got through before the light turned red. That was insane.

Same thing on 90. We turned around, talk about going nowhere fast.

[jasons2k]

There is no easy answer since parts of Houston flood. Anyone who lived along some of those bayous needed out too. What I fail to understand is people well past the point of a storm surge threat leaving the same time Galveston County and people along Galveston Bay are being told to leave...That was the problem and perhaps the mayors of Spring, Conroe, Katy, Sugar Land and points north and west of that should rethink their plans along with Bill White.

I don't remember them telling people outside of surge/flood prone areas to leave. I watched some of of the coverage again last night on TiVo and it was zones A, B, C that were told to leave, along with people along bayous that were prone to flooding. People outside of those zones left on their own accord.

And I disagree with you that people in Spring won't need to leave in a Cat. 4/5. I live there and I rode out Rita. We had TS winds and the tree damage was bad enough. If a solid Cat. 2-3 came through (after being downgraded and moving inland) it would bring down most of those tall trees and many people would die, not just during the storm but after the fact as well. Have you read the reports coming from places like Liberty County, Jasper, etc., well inland??? My gosh the best thing to do is get out BEFORE the storm; it's just not worth it to stay.

[susan]

I evacuated to Spring and the neighborhood I stayed in looked like a ghost town. The person we stayed with said people were leaving all morning. That was the same time my area along Galveston Bay was under a mandatory evacuation. Yes, I saw the damage to Spring, I was there during Rita and I am aware of the damage to Jasper. And that is my point. People along the coast are not outrunning the winds. We are running from a wall of water. Had the storm gone to Dallas after landfall, they would have recieved hurricane force winds. I never suggested people in northern parts not leave. Just to let the people along the coast out first. That is all...

[jasons2k]

I evacuated to Spring and the neighborhood I stayed in looked like a ghost town. The person we stayed with said people were leaving all morning. That was the same time my area along Galveston Bay was under a mandatory evacuation. The mayors up there may not have said to evacuate but I did not hear them say to wait, either..

There is no mayor in Spring so you didn't hear him/her say anything. It is unincorporated; it is only a postal zone designation. I have a Spring address but live much closer to The Woodlands on a map. People who left Spring simply chose to do so, and rightfully so IMO.

If Rita had made a direct hit you would have wished you kept trucking all the way to Dallas.

[GalvestonDuck]

Spring is 75 miles from the coast though.

[jasons2k]

Yes it is, and it's also a tree haven that would have looked like a total war zone if Rita had made a direct hit.

Our community center in my neighborhood was destroyed from Rita. It had 4 or 5 trees fall on it and the roof caved in. Can you imagine Cat 2 or 3 winds in the same area? I cannot, and I would not be there for such an event.

Also, Montgomery County (where I live) is not considered a hurricane zone, so the houses are not built to withstand Cat 2 or 3 winds. I have a well-built house and it would probably hold, but then I have to worry about debris and trees on top of that.

Remember downtown Houston from Alicia and all the shattered glass? It was not the wind itself, it was the gravel/debris that knocked out the glass.

In short, staying in my area if Rita had made a direct hit would have been a death wish.

[susan]

Ok, we are getting nowhere here. I can hear the sarcasm loud and clear. My only point is this. Spring, Conroe, Woodlands, Katy, Sealy, Huntsville and other cities north and west were not going to be slammed by a wall of water. That is why they told the people along the coast and Galveston Bay to leave FIRST...Not such a hard concept, is it? Did I say your town should not evacuate? No way...just not at the same time Galveston is initiating their evacuation.

[Roxy]

Ok, we are getting nowhere here. I can hear the sarcasm loud and clear. My only point is this. Spring, Conroe, Woodlands, Katy, Sealy, Huntsville and other cities north and west were not going to be slammed by a wall of water. That is why they told the people along the coast and Galveston Bay to leave FIRST...Not such a hard concept, is it? Did I say your town should not evacuate? No way...just not at the same time Galveston is initiating their evacuation.

I've had this same disagreement with several people at work. It really does go nowhere...I agree with Susan, if you've prepared you can hunker down....find a safe place in your home where the trees won't fall on you and hunker down. Not much you can do about a storm surge. Or better yet, wait to leave until the coast is evacuated.

Probably best to just leave it alone...next time this happens...it'll be a repeat of the evac debacle and on and on.

[stormie_skies]

I don't think anyone is saying that people in Spring or anywhere else should be forced to stay against their will .... I think what those of us in mandatory evac zones are asking for is an opportunity to at least move to higher ground before the rest of you hit the road. While I understand that someone riding out a major hurricane in a home in Spring would face dangerous winds and even tornadoes, I would trade you my townhome on tidal water for your home in Spring in a New York minute in that situation! Again, mandatory evac zones are mandatory for a REASON. Those of us who absolutely NEED to get out need to be given a safe and relatively simple way to do so....there has to be a better way than sending us out to sit in traffic for hours - even days - without going anywhere. Getting people out of flood zones first will take some planning and consideration from everyone - TXDOT, state and local governments, employers and yes, even those who live on higher ground and can wait to make their great escape. But it has to be done, because if it isn't, people in flood prone areas will stop evacuating, and someday when the big one doesn't turn that will lead to massive loss of life....

[jasons2k]

I'm truly not trying to be sarcastic, I'm just trying to be accurate and figure out what exactly you want to happen. People in Galveston etc., as you stated yourself, were told to leave first. The zones and evacuation times were all over the media. I dunno what more can be done other than chaining people up north to their houses until everyone else is gone (ok, a bit of sarcasm there but just in fun).

People keep talking about the surge but he fact is that most hurricane deaths in the modern era are after landfall caused by inland flooding because people don't evacuate those areas. There is a huge disconnect from the perceived inland dangers and reality. Hurricanes are not simply a shoreline event.