99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[O Town]

I agree vaffie, that thing has exploded.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[deltadog03]

this is from the FWD in Dallas...

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE NORTHERLY
PATH WILL SPREAD RAIN FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND COULD EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY.

[jasons2k]

Dr. Neil Frank said last night he expected this system to develop.

He said it was a real possibility a Tropical Cyclone could move into the GOM this weekend and we would have to watch it very carefully.

What would you expect him to say: "Nothing to worry about here...please don't tune back in at 10 pm."?

That was funny

FWIW it was the 10PM broadcast already....and Dr. Frank, unlike other local mets (namely Channel 2), doesn't obverhype.

[jasons2k]

this is from the FWD in Dallas...

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE NORTHERLY
PATH WILL SPREAD RAIN FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND COULD EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY.

Saw that....all the discussions from Houston and Brownsville say it will stay well south, but they (particularly Houston) said the same thing a few days before Rita as well.

[hicksta]

this is from the FWD in Dallas...

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE NORTHERLY
PATH WILL SPREAD RAIN FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND COULD EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY.

Saw that....all the discussions from Houston and Brownsville say it will stay well south, but they (particularly Houston) said the same thing a few days before Rita as well.

Dont say that name!!!

[deltadog03]

this is from the FWD in Dallas...

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE NORTHERLY
PATH WILL SPREAD RAIN FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND COULD EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY.

Saw that....all the discussions from Houston and Brownsville say it will stay well south, but they (particularly Houston) said the same thing a few days before Rita as well.

Dont say that name!!!

Well, I read most of the AFD's around here...FWD usually seems to have the best handle on the currents and tropics...we will see

[joseph01]

After just looking over the IR and Visible sat loops around 99L, I am certainly hoping that nothing forms from this. The entire area of activity is plainly astounding. If there is cyclogenisis in the midst of it, and I think there is, I wonder about the size of any system that could form from such great resources. I will be watching this very closely for further development. It looks like "The Day after Tomorrow" scenario. Or perhaps I'm just getting carried away.

[Weatherfreak14]

Man, it looks like a bomb out their. That will be sure lot of rain for the yucatan. If it heads that way.

[LAStorm01]

Are we looking at a Mexico storm post development?

[vaffie]

After just looking over the IR and Visible sat loops around 99L, I am certainly hoping that nothing forms from this. The entire area of activity is plainly astounding. If there is cyclogenisis in the midst of it, and I think there is, I wonder about the size of any system that could form from such great resources. I will be watching this very closely for further development. It looks like "The Day after Tomorrow" scenario. Or perhaps I'm just getting carried away.

And you know what the sad thing is? The sad thing is that every day, at 5 pm, the convection is either at its worst or nonexistent. Imagine what it might look like in 8 hours--at it's diurnal maximum!

[cat_6]

Check this out...rapid fade to blue on Shortwave IR... and it's huge too... this could get ugly very shortly

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Weatherfreak14]

This might just be me but is this thing rotating the wrong way. Its rotating to me clockwise. Isn't it to be counter clockwise

[joseph01]

This might just be me but is this thing rotating the wrong way. Its rotating to me clockwise. Isn't it to be counter clockwise

Arguing about rotation direction is a good thing, at this point!

[Stratosphere747]

That could be a indication that High pressure is building in above it, which would be a bad sign.

[vaffie]

This might just be me but is this thing rotating the wrong way. Its rotating to me clockwise. Isn't it to be counter clockwise

Arguing about rotation direction is a good thing, at this point!

You are right partially, I think. The upper level clouds are rotating clockwise, but the lower level ones--which are harder to see except sometimes in visible pictures, are rotating counterclockwise. The fact that the upper level clouds are rotating clockwise is a sign that an upper level high is building over the system, which allows for better outflow and more rapid intensification because it provides a ventilation system of sorts. In the lower latitudes, very strong storms can, by their very nature, create a more favorable upper level environment--especially when they have a lot of convection. As this system continues to strengthen, it will likely begin to do the same, though even without this factor, the forecast is for a better upper level environment over the next three days--but right now it's pretty ideal. Another factor to keep in mind is that the upper level low over Florida, by creating a jet of shear to the north of the disturbance, rather than causing shear, is actually also helping the outflow too.

[beachbum_al]

11pm~Maybe TS Stan in the horizon.

I don't know what to do. Cry or scream!

[BLHutch]

I don't know what to do. Cry or scream!

Both!

Brady H.

[LAStorm01]

Development would suggest a Mexico storm however the longer this takes to develop if at all, would allow for troughs and other variables to enter in the over all picture. However, those who claim cooler weather would have an impact, that is null and void because the Gulf Coast and into TX is hot.

[joseph01]

This might just be me but is this thing rotating the wrong way. Its rotating to me clockwise. Isn't it to be counter clockwise

Arguing about rotation direction is a good thing, at this point!

You are right partially, I think. The upper level clouds are rotating clockwise, but the lower level ones--which are harder to see except sometimes in visible pictures, are rotating counterclockwise. The fact that the upper level clouds are rotating clockwise is a sign that an upper level high is building over the system, which allows for better outflow and more rapid intensification because it provides a ventilation system of sorts. In the lower latitudes, very strong storms can, by their very nature, create a more favorable upper level environment--especially when they have a lot of convection. As this system continues to strengthen, it will likely begin to do the same, though even without this factor, the forecast is for a better upper level environment over the next three days--but right now it's pretty ideal. Another factor to keep in mind is that the upper level low over Florida, by creating a jet of shear to the north of the disturbance, rather than causing shear, is actually also helping the outflow too.

Yes, this is what I'm worried about. I don't posess the intellectual scope that you do, but hope you and I are wrong, and it just disappears. The potential here is scary.