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jax wrote:21 % chance of a Major hurricane
hitting the US this year between now and the end of the season...
WOW... that sucks...[/b]
inotherwords wrote:jax wrote:21 % chance of a Major hurricane
hitting the US this year between now and the end of the season...
WOW... that sucks...[/b]
I don't know about from now until the end of the season but for October, he said there's a 15% chance that a major hurricane (3+) would make US landfall that month. There's a 21% chance that any hurricane would make US landfall in October, not just majors.
Here is a link to the report. He will be updating it the first week in October.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/sep2005/
Excerpt:
Table 11: Estimated probability (expressed in percent) of one or more U.S. landfalling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR) and category 3-4-5 hurricanes (IH) making landfall along the entire U.S. coast for October 2005 based on an October NTC forecast of 30. The long-term mean October probability of one or more landfalling systems during the last 52 years is given in parentheses.
October 2005 Probability
Named Storm (29%) 49%
Hurricane (15%) 21%
Intense Hurricane (6%) 15%
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