99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[calculatedrisk]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050929 0000 050929 1200 050930 0000 050930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 81.3W 17.4N 83.0W 17.7N 84.2W 17.9N 85.3W
BAMM 16.6N 81.3W 17.8N 83.1W 18.5N 84.0W 18.8N 85.0W
A98E 16.6N 81.3W 17.2N 82.8W 17.8N 84.2W 18.4N 85.5W
LBAR 16.6N 81.3W 17.7N 83.0W 18.7N 84.1W 19.8N 85.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051001 0000 051002 0000 051003 0000 051004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 86.4W 18.5N 88.8W 19.0N 91.5W 19.1N 94.4W
BAMM 19.1N 85.9W 19.6N 88.1W 20.3N 90.9W 20.4N 93.8W
A98E 19.1N 87.0W 21.2N 90.6W 23.0N 94.7W 24.5N 99.0W
LBAR 20.9N 86.5W 23.9N 88.9W 26.8N 91.5W 27.9N 93.6W
SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 92KTS 95KTS
DSHP 66KTS 55KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 79.7W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[canetracker]

GOM temps are warming up!
GOM SST'shttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005270gosst.png

Caribbean SST's
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005270casst.png

[cycloneye]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND HONDURAS. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...IT HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING... IF
NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


10:30 PM TWO.

[skysummit]

These TWO's seem like deja-vu from the previous ones

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like a Mexico system.

you are correct. boy have they sure had alot to deal with this season.

<RICKY>

[perk]

Looks like a Mexico storm. I recall that same statement used over and over again on this board regarding a storm called Rita. Just so happen it went inland about 500 miles north of the northern coast of Mexico.

[NastyCat4]

Rita's point of origin, and initial position were rather different than this potential mess--it is way West and South of where Katrina and Rita formed.

If it does develop, it would be far further West and South---no comparison to either storm. If there are paralles to be drawn, Emily looks like the best comparison, in terms of possible track.

[jasons2k]

"Protective" ridges tend to be much harder to hold in place this late in the season. That's why I never bought into the idea Rita would track across the GOM for a week into Mexico.

[hicksta]

"Protective" ridges tend to be much harder to hold in place this late in the season. That's why I never bought into the idea Rita would track across the GOM for a week into Mexico.

Very true

[perk]

I could care less about how much further south this system may form. The same set up that steered Rita could be in place, and just because it is further south does'nt mean that it can't be steered N or NW if that high moves or weakens. Remember it is getting late in the season that high just may not sit in the same place for long.

[TS Zack]

Rita's point of origin, and initial position were rather different than this potential mess--it is way West and South of where Katrina and Rita formed.

If it does develop, it would be far further West and South---no comparison to either storm. If there are paralles to be drawn, Emily looks like the best comparison, in terms of possible track.

You have to remember, Emily was in July. Mid-Summer you will get the summer heat ridge locked in place. This time of year, that ridge will be pushed to its limit to try to hold on. Each and every day that passes makes it harder and harder for storms to get to Texas. To much troughiness.

Right Now, you are trying to pick a needle out of a haystack if you try to guess where this thing is going.
Number 1, no fixed center!!!
Number 2, barotropic models can't handle this trough pattern that we have setting-up.
Number 3, its moving slow, Many things can change from now to landfall in a week.
Number 4, Models can only guess what layer of the atmosphere this storm will be steered in. It hasn't formed, yet!

[vaffie]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I could care less about how much further south this system may form. The same set up that steered Rita could be in place, and just because it is further south does'nt mean that it can't be steered N or NW if that high moves or weakens. Remember it is getting late in the season that high just may not sit in the same place for long.

I agree with you, perk, though it does matter some where it develops. I also agree that at this time of the year, the Bermuda high is certainly not as protective as it was when Emily was around. This year, the high has been especially strong--which is why Emily, Rita and Katrina were both pushed far into the Gulf. The 18Z GFS model is showing a very strong high at the time when this is approaching the Mexican coast at 120 hours, but if you'll notice, it has a cold front over the Great Plains at the time. If this were a wave, it might just continue into Mexico, but if it were a TS or a hurricane at that point, it could be pulled north, just as it nears the coast. If it slows down a little more, which it has been doing--from 12 to 8 knots, not only would it miss the cold front that's presently in the Plains, but it would give it just enough time to get pulled north by the deepening second cold front in the Plains. It would then pose a threat to the Texas coast. All this is absolutely and completely idle conjecture until we get some real model data on this...the BAM models are not even useful above 20N--especially when this system is not properly initialized, LBAR always has a huge margin of error, NHC98e is better, but I'm waiting for properly initialized GFDL, GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, the CONU, and the NHC track before I know what the true risks might be and whether I should begin preparing again--because there might not be a lot of time, and it could develop quickly... I hope not, though.

[calculatedrisk]

Another GFDL run, same result.

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.3 81.4 290./ 8.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[artist]

they are using GOES 10 until the blackout is over -
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-820W.jpg

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

W CARIBBEAN 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N81W DRIFTING WNW.
ORGANIZATION REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE LOW FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 79W-84W.



8 AM Discussion.

[Hyperstorm]

This morning Invest 99L is becoming better organized and showing signs of development. It sure has taken its time due to the lack of a well-defined LLC and an easterly surge of winds on the south side yesterday, which disrupted the cloud pattern early in the morning. Since the surge is long gone, very deep convection is exploding over the center of low pressure right now. The convection should expand during the day and give more organization to the system. This only means one thing...Strengthening. I will be very surprised if we don't have a tropical depression within the next 12-18 hours, that is by tonight.

The ULL north of Cuba is still there and has created a wall of shear just to the north and west. As long as the system remains in "slow mode", it will be protected. That low is moving away and the system should be able to strengthen in the near-term.

Steering currents are weak, so for the time being I can only say...Watch a low pressure grow in the climatologically favorable NW Caribbean.

87*

[no advance]

Thanks Hyper Laying down some tracks. You might be right.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050929 1200 050930 0000 050930 1200 051001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 82.3W 18.5N 83.5W 18.9N 84.5W 19.3N 85.5W
BAMM 17.8N 82.3W 18.6N 83.5W 19.0N 84.6W 19.5N 85.6W
A98E 17.8N 82.3W 18.6N 83.4W 19.5N 84.4W 20.4N 85.6W
LBAR 17.8N 82.3W 18.8N 83.4W 19.9N 84.5W 21.2N 85.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051001 1200 051002 1200 051003 1200 051004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 86.6W 20.1N 88.9W 20.2N 91.5W 19.8N 94.5W
BAMM 19.8N 86.8W 20.2N 89.6W 20.4N 92.7W 20.1N 96.2W
A98E 21.5N 87.1W 24.2N 91.5W 26.4N 96.1W 28.1N 99.1W
LBAR 22.3N 86.6W 24.9N 88.6W 26.0N 90.7W 25.7N 93.4W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 88KTS 92KTS
DSHP 63KTS 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 82.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 79.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Model Guidance.

[Frank2]

The Miami WSFO discussion has dropped any mention of a tropical system to our south, other than mentioning possible trough/low development by next week (though it doesn't sound very convincing):

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS FLORIDA/BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME MODELS EVEN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING. FOLLOWED MEX GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BECOME WETTER DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT.

Frank

[boca]

I don't think this area will be moving in any particular direction any time soon.