99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

those are useless. Globals will tell the real tale.

Johnnathan more than that recon will be the final word about what kind of system we are dealing with.After that is determined later today then the Global models can be useful.

[jax]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

None of those models matter right now, as they have nothing to go by and aren't globals, anyway. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean anything.

they are valid... more valid than our gut feelings or -removed-...
they give us an idea of what the atmoshere may de doing in the
near future... I like them... I anticipte the new ones... I don't make
major decisions at this point... GIVE ME MODELS ! ! !

[Windy]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

None of those models matter right now, as they have nothing to go by and aren't globals, anyway. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean anything.

they are valid... more valid than our gut feelings or -removed-...
they give us an idea of what the atmoshere may de doing in the
near future... I like them... I anticipte the new ones... I don't make
major decisions at this point... GIVE ME MODELS ! ! !

You're entitled to believe whatever you want, but, no, BAM, LBAR, and NHCA98E are not valid models to use right now, given what those models are, where the "storm" is, and the fact that there isn't even a recon fix on it yet.

[cajungal]

I am having serious doubts that recon will find anything. Just looks like a very unorganized cluster of showers and not much more. It looks worse today than it did last night. Even if it does become a TD, it probably won't become Stan the Man, the trip over the Yucatan will kill any circulation it would have.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am having serious doubts that recon will find anything. Just looks like a very unorganized cluster of showers and not much more. It looks worse today than it did last night. Even if it does become a TD, it probably won't become Stan the Man, the trip over the Yucatan will kill any circulation it would have.

Its going nowhere fast...

[jax]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

None of those models matter right now, as they have nothing to go by and aren't globals, anyway. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean anything.

they are valid... more valid than our gut feelings or -removed-...
they give us an idea of what the atmoshere may de doing in the
near future... I like them... I anticipte the new ones... I don't make
major decisions at this point... GIVE ME MODELS ! ! !

You're entitled to believe whatever you want, but, no, BAM, LBAR, and NHCA98E are not valid models to use right now, given what those models are, where the "storm" is, and the fact that there isn't even a recon fix on it yet.

they are all we have that are suggestive of what may lay ahead of us
in a few days... that's not my opinion... it's all we (you and I) have.
I'm not suggesting that you create your evacuation plan right away
based on what they are "suggesting"...

[cajungal]

This wave has been going on for a week now. And it still is not even a TD. I wish it would just make up its mind or go poof. I love tracking storms as long as it is not a threat to people.

[Ivanhater]

This wave has been going on for a week now. And it still is not even a TD. I wish it would just make up its mind or go poof. I love tracking storms as long as it is not a threat to people.

cajun read the new nhc outlook, its starting to organize now.....imo its a "go" now

[Blown Away]

The models initial point is within 100 miles of the approximate 11:30am position. I think the models are going to give us a general idea at this point W Gulf or E Gulf. Recon data is obviously more reliable.

[jax]

The models initial point is within 100 miles of the approximate 11:30am position. I think the models are going to give us a general idea at this point W Gulf or E Gulf. Recon data is obviously more reliable.

i agree... recon should be there in about an hour...

[Blown Away]

Just an observation... It looks like the clouds are forming around Grand Cayman rather than 130 miles SSW.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[Windy]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

None of those models matter right now, as they have nothing to go by and aren't globals, anyway. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean anything.

they are valid... more valid than our gut feelings or -removed-...
they give us an idea of what the atmoshere may de doing in the
near future... I like them... I anticipte the new ones... I don't make
major decisions at this point... GIVE ME MODELS ! ! !

You're entitled to believe whatever you want, but, no, BAM, LBAR, and NHCA98E are not valid models to use right now, given what those models are, where the "storm" is, and the fact that there isn't even a recon fix on it yet.

they are all we have that are suggestive of what may lay ahead of us
in a few days... that's not my opinion... it's all we (you and I) have.
I'm not suggesting that you create your evacuation plan right away
based on what they are "suggesting"...

They are not all that we have.

It's important to not just know things, but also know when you don't know things. We don't know right now where this storm might go. Some probably have the experience to make a meteorological "informed guess", but I doubt they're looking too hard at these models as they do it. Just because we have a little map with some lines on it doesn't mean anything, if the algorithms used to produce those lines are not relevant in the area where this storm is, and the initial dataset that those algorithms are based upon is not very accurate.

[jax]

None of the models seem to show any E component for 99L.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

None of those models matter right now, as they have nothing to go by and aren't globals, anyway. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean anything.

they are valid... more valid than our gut feelings or -removed-...
they give us an idea of what the atmoshere may de doing in the
near future... I like them... I anticipte the new ones... I don't make
major decisions at this point... GIVE ME MODELS ! ! !

You're entitled to believe whatever you want, but, no, BAM, LBAR, and NHCA98E are not valid models to use right now, given what those models are, where the "storm" is, and the fact that there isn't even a recon fix on it yet.

they are all we have that are suggestive of what may lay ahead of us
in a few days... that's not my opinion... it's all we (you and I) have.
I'm not suggesting that you create your evacuation plan right away
based on what they are "suggesting"...

They are not all that we have.

It's important to not just know things, but also know when you don't know things. We don't know right now where this storm might go. Some probably have the experience to make a meteorological "informed guess", but I doubt they're looking too hard at these models as they do it. Just because we have a little map with some lines on it doesn't mean anything, if the algorithms used to produce those lines are not relevant in the area where this storm is, and the initial dataset that those algorithms are based upon is not very accurate.

you're right... you should ignore the maps... don't let me stop you.

[Windy]

you're right... you should ignore the maps... don't let me stop you.

And don't let me stop you from using them. Just trying to help you understand what the models are and when they are useful. But by all means, continue following those lines, and then act all shocked when the globals disagree dramatically in the next 48 hours, or when the storm dissapates and those lines continue to indicate a Mexico strike.

[jax]

you're right... you should ignore the maps... don't let me stop you.

And don't let me stop you from using them. Just trying to help you understand what the models are and when they are useful. But by all means, continue following those lines, and then act all shocked when the globals disagree dramatically in the next 48 hours, or when the storm dissapates and those lines continue to indicate a Mexico strike.

you're telling everyone else to stop... calling them useless...
but please don't evacute now... not at this point...

[Blown Away]

Windy,
Why bother if the models have no use! Your saying there is no information to be gained from those models?

[Rainband]

Windy,
Why bother if the models have no use! Your saying there is no information to be gained from those models?

When a system is developed they are very useful. When it comes to Broad area's of low pressure they aren't. If we get a fix on the center then the models will be more accurate I think that was the point windy was making.

[jax]

Windy,
Why bother if the models have no use! Your saying there is no information to be gained from those models?

When a system is developed they are very useful. When it comes to Broad area's of low pressure they aren't. If we get a fix on the center then the models will be more accurate I think that was the point windy was making.

no... windy says they are usless and implies that we have no business looking at them... implies that we are stupid for commenting on them.

[caneman]

Windy,
Why bother if the models have no use! Your saying there is no information to be gained from those models?

When a system is developed they are very useful. When it comes to Broad area's of low pressure they aren't. If we get a fix on the center then the models will be more accurate I think that was the point windy was making.

no... windy says they are usless and implies that we have no business looking at them... implies that we are stupid for commenting on them.

Windy is right. There is no point commenting on them.

[jax]

Windy,
Why bother if the models have no use! Your saying there is no information to be gained from those models?

When a system is developed they are very useful. When it comes to Broad area's of low pressure they aren't. If we get a fix on the center then the models will be more accurate I think that was the point windy was making.

no... windy says they are usless and implies that we have no business looking at them... implies that we are stupid for commenting on them.

Windy is right. There is no point commenting on them.

JYHO