99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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deltadog03
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gatorcane
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can someone give me the low down on this invest. It's definitely getting better organized and in the 11:30am NHC discussion they say movement is WNW and possible NW later....where is it heading and how intense can it get...what about any cold fronts that could steer it NEward? How about the ridge to the North that is expected to build in?
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corpusbreeze
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Well I can tell that the noon news here in Corpus said that the front wont make it through our area! SORRY he said. Tells you how strong the front isboca_chris wrote:can someone give me the low down on this invest. It's definitely getting better organized and in the 11:30am NHC discussion they say movement is WNW and possible NW later....where is it heading and how intense can it get...what about any cold fronts that could steer it NEward? How about the ridge to the North that is expected to build in?
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cycloneye
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED. A LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
...OR 29.80 INCHES... WAS DETECTED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. HOWEVER... THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED. A LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
...OR 29.80 INCHES... WAS DETECTED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. HOWEVER... THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye
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rockyman wrote:Luis...does no depression mean we can keep using this thread for a while longer? I'm sure "some people" will not be overjoyed and will once again start a flurry of "new 99L threads"...get your locking finger ready!
Oh boy I was eagered to close this thread as soon the news about a new TD would come but it seems that this thread will remain open and now it may break the TD10 one of 110 pages.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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no advance
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can someone check out the circulation at 21n 76.83w? Run a loop - I know it is over Cuba but is beginning to spin off - not sure it is to the surface yet though. What do you all think? enter x of 339 and y of 219 when you scroll down the page and set for animation of 8 images at the top and then enter the coordinates at the bottom of the page and click extraxt subimage button.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
3 days ago I was fearing a strong cold front would turn this thing into the
GOM and endanger either FL or Texas depending on the timing.
Well, thankfully the cold front is not as strong as previously feared.
Therefore this looks like a Yucatan system. It may not be able
to get very strong as it is getting closer to the Yucatan.
I GLADLY eat my crow for this system that thank Goodness no cold front
pulled up towards the GOM Coast.
3 days ago I was fearing a strong cold front would turn this thing into the
GOM and endanger either FL or Texas depending on the timing.
Well, thankfully the cold front is not as strong as previously feared.
Therefore this looks like a Yucatan system. It may not be able
to get very strong as it is getting closer to the Yucatan.
I GLADLY eat my crow for this system that thank Goodness no cold front
pulled up towards the GOM Coast.
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West/SW low clouds being pulled in, maybe a center appearing around 22n 83w?
I read the recon thread but couldn't decode all the data by eye. There was talk of not finding any west winds. In the IR loop now, some clouds look to be getting sucked up into the area just south of Cayman, well west of the main convection. I know it's been stewing but not organizing for a long time, but this is the first turning I've seen. Anybody else?
I read the recon thread but couldn't decode all the data by eye. There was talk of not finding any west winds. In the IR loop now, some clouds look to be getting sucked up into the area just south of Cayman, well west of the main convection. I know it's been stewing but not organizing for a long time, but this is the first turning I've seen. Anybody else?
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Brent
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5:30pm TWO:
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
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