UKMET @ HOUR 120

[SouthFloridawx]

What is UKMET picking up on there?



i'll check the other models

[MortisFL]

Probably picking up on the NW Caribbean mess

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS
[img]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2 ... /slp18.png[/img]

[O Town]

Link not working

[CHRISTY]

whats that in florida

[SouthFloridawx]

[Stratosphere747]

The GFS shows nothing...

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

here it is at 72 hours...
[img]
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... 2z/f72.gif[/img]

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS in 120 HRS

[SouthFloridawx]

sorry here is ukmet in 72 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS in 84 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

ECMWF in 168 Hours

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC in 120 Hours

[vaffie]

They are all picking up on the low pressure northeast of Puerto Rico which you can easily see on satellite now with a nice circulation and which is moving west. They are not displaying the wave in the Caribbean because none of them initialize it well enough to show it, but after the recon data is input, they may show it somewhere else like in the Gulf.

[Deb321]

So for us weather dummies what does all that mean???

[SouthFloridawx]

thanks that makes sense... kind of what i thought.....

[SouthFloridawx]

[hicksta]

Hmm ok. 108 hours out says it all bro. Also seems like you want this for South flordia.

[vaffie]

So for us weather dummies what does all that mean???

It means, Deb321, that that wave is expected by all of the global models to make it to the Bahamas and Florida in 4-6 days. Not to be alarmist, but it has a good circulation, convection is starting to fire up around it, and it has 4-6 days of fairly warm water and good conditions before it reaches the US. What it will be by then is anyone's guess, and whether it enters the Gulf is too, though if it does, cold fronts at this time of year might not let it get very far into the Gulf. Just pay attention to it and be prepared.