99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

it almost looks like its drifting north ever so slightly? we will see 2morrow

If it moves north it goes over the mountains of Cuba and will not develop.

[mvtrucking]

can someone give me the low down on this invest. It's definitely getting better organized and in the 11:30am NHC discussion they say movement is WNW and possible NW later....where is it heading and how intense can it get...what about any cold fronts that could steer it NEward? How about the ridge to the North that is expected to build in?

Well I can tell that the noon news here in Corpus said that the front wont make it through our area! SORRY he said. Tells you how strong the front is

I was so mad that the cool front did not make it down this far!!!

It was a cool day here in Monroe. 72 and beautiful. Tonight will get down to 47.Ahhhhh relief....

[vaffie]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

I really value your opinion, 57, and have been worried about the Texas scenario for the last five days, even while I was evacuated in Midland. Where do you think the LLC will form? 81.3N, 20.5W is my guess. And also, do you think it will go over the tip of Cuba or over the tip of the Yucatan? Thanks.

[artist]

WOW! what I wouldn't give for at least a cooler night here! 47 for a low in La.?? Wow!

[mvtrucking]

You also have to figure into the equation the fact that I was kind of hoping to get a day off after working hurricane shifts for most of the past 6 weeks. I was off half a day on Sept. 17th. Was hoping to get some sleep the next few days after Rita.[/quote]



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If you could write it off you would. You need some R&R wxman57!

[jwayne]

wxmann, what's your take on

1. what day this hits
2. how strong possibly
3. area of coast that gets hit.

I know its way early, but curious as to your thoughts.

thanks

[KatDaddy]

wxman57 I hope you do get some rest. We all need it. You guys have worked very hard. On a side note I hope you accept my apology for the previous postings. It was wrong and you guys work very hard to provide a great service.

[ronjon]

If this system develops, the synoptic pattern will favor an eventual turn to the west or northwest. The 12Z CMC does bring the system, albeit weak, north across Cuba and into S FL in 72 hrs. Not sure if I buy it, but its possible the system is drawn north and then west over the next few days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[CHRISTY]

looks possible! look were the thunderstorm activity is forming now right under south florida!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

looks possible! look were the thunderstorm activity is forming now right under south florida!

calm yourself...LOL....

[CHRISTY]

iam fine ! iam just typeing what i see!

[artist]

I really worry Christy will have a heart attack if one were to head her way!

[Portastorm]

I really worry Christy will have a heart attack if one were to head her way!

Oh man, that's funny ... no kidding!

Christy, take it easy ... deeeep breaths ....

[CHRISTY]

iam actually going to put on a red cape and while the hurricane is passing my house iam going to jump of my roof and see if i could fly!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

iam actually going to put on a red cape and while the hurricane is passing my house iam going to jump of my roof and see if i could fly!

I wouldn't recommend that...
no offense but how old r u?

[CHRISTY]

uh 29 why! iam only playing chill.... dont worry i wont play around again i just enjoy weather.

[vaffie]

uh 29 why! iam only playing chill.... dont worry i wont play around again i just enjoy weather.

Christy, you even make me nervous about something hitting Florida!

[CHRISTY]

if been ready since june 1 so if youv'e done the same you'll be alright.

[Stratosphere747]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

I really value your opinion, 57, and have been worried about the Texas scenario for the last five days, even while I was evacuated in Midland. Where do you think the LLC will form? 81.3N, 20.5W is my guess. And also, do you think it will go over the tip of Cuba or over the tip of the Yucatan? Thanks.

Interesting thoughts 57...

Vaffie your guess may not be that far off....

Looking at where recon may be headed Friday in comparison from today...although a somewhat to the west..

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARRIBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 30/1700Z A. 01/0500Z
B. AFXXX 0319A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0419A CYCLONE
C. 30/1230Z C. 01/0045Z
D. 20.0N 84.0W D. 21.ON 85.0W
E. 30/1530Z TO 30/2000Z E. 01/0330Z TO 01/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cajungal]

uh 29 why! iam only playing chill.... dont worry i wont play around again i just enjoy weather.

Then you are the exact same age as me. And the very same age as me when Andrew hit. How did you handle it when Andrew hit your hometown? Andrew also came to hit my town next.