99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Recurve]

1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W.

Is the surface low pressure center not enough for the storm to organize around -- you expect another areas to develop lower pressure or a midlevel center? Trying to understand.

[wxmann_91]

[Recurve]

Pretty red all over there, chief.
By "pretty" I mean a fair amount, not that it's pretty of course.

So shear is light and staying light.

[recmod]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

Funny...when Swan Island was mentioned, I instantly thought of 1955's Janet, another Cat 5 hurricane that slammed this little island...

--Lou

[vaffie]

Pretty red all over there, chief.
By "pretty" I mean a fair amount, not that it's pretty of course.

So shear is light and staying light.

They're probably referring to the unfavorably dry air, though, not the upper level flow pattern, but that will probably change as the high begins to rebuild and bring the tropical air in from the Caribbean along with 99L/something.

[Stratosphere747]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

Funny...when Swan Island was mentioned, I instantly thought of 1955's Janet, another Cat 5 hurricane that slammed this little island...

--Lou

Lou...

One of the most infamous hurricanes of all-time IMO...The only time we have lost a recon plane...

Scott

[THead]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

Funny...when Swan Island was mentioned, I instantly thought of 1955's Janet, another Cat 5 hurricane that slammed this little island...

--Lou

Lou...

One of the most infamous hurricanes of all-time IMO...The only time we have lost a recon plane...

Scott

Wow, I wondered if that had ever happened before....how did it happen, were there any details? Besides the obvious.....

[Stratosphere747]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

Funny...when Swan Island was mentioned, I instantly thought of 1955's Janet, another Cat 5 hurricane that slammed this little island...

--Lou

Lou...

One of the most infamous hurricanes of all-time IMO...The only time we have lost a recon plane...

Scott

Wow, I wondered if that had ever happened before....how did it happen, were there any details? Besides the obvious.....

There is a book called "Stormchasers: The Hurricane Hunters and Their Fateful Flight into Hurricane Janet"

I'll PM you with some more info...

Scott

[Brent]

I knew recon had lost a flight, but didn't know it was during Janet. Interesting.

[secretforecaster]

WOW! I always wondered if there was ever a loss of a RECON flight. I never knew that. I am off to do some research. Thanks.

[THead]

Thanks for the info Scott, going to dust off the ole library card this weekend.

[Windy]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

Funny...when Swan Island was mentioned, I instantly thought of 1955's Janet, another Cat 5 hurricane that slammed this little island...

--Lou

Lou...

One of the most infamous hurricanes of all-time IMO...The only time we have lost a recon plane...

Scott

Actually, I think we've lost four planes over the years. Three of them were from Typhoons.

[vaffie]

I may be wrong, but banding features seem to be forming to the southeast, southwest, north and northeast on IR out of the thunderstorm that has been persisting at 19.1N, 82.5W for at least the last two and a half hours. This location would be 55 miles slightly north of northwest of the 6Z estimated position--if it had moved this distance, it means it would have travelled 55 miles in 4.5 hours at 320-5 degrees, in other words, at 12 mph or 10.6 knots. We will see if this turns out to be the beginning of the LLC.

[Hyperstorm]

Yesterday, it was proven once again the need of reconnaissance aircraft into tropical systems. Many of us (including the NHC) fell into the trap that the system was becoming better organized during the morning hours. Convection was deepening and increasing in coverage in the system. Recon aircraft found nothing more than a complex area of disturbed weather.

Today, the system appears to have once again, increased in thunderstorm activity. However, it is very surprising it has not been able to get its act together, being over those climatologically favored waters for such a long time. Upper-level conditions have been marginally favorable, but it looks like that hasn't helped just yet. The thing that have kept this system from developing is the lack of a well-defined surface circulation. If it had a circulation in the lower-levels it would have been classified a day or two ago.

Looking into the next few days, there is still the potential for this to develop since upper-level conditions are expected to improve even more. Pressures falling in the area are helping the environment of the system become more favorable. Since it is such a disorganized and widespread system, it will take some time to consolidate, but the potential is there.

Even though there is an area of high pressure to the north of the system, there are too many weaknesses embedded in it. This would only mean very slow and erratic movement over the next couple of days...

[gatorcane]

hyperstorm, your commentary is always appreciated. I agree with you and it's just a wait and see game from here.

[boca]

If the high builds to the north of 99L wouldn't that be the kicker to start nudgeing this sytem towards the Central American coast.

[Frank2]

Here's what this person has to say about 99L:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050930 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 1200 051001 0000 051001 1200 051002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 82.6W 19.2N 83.8W 19.9N 84.9W 20.7N 86.2W
BAMM 18.5N 82.6W 19.4N 83.8W 20.2N 85.0W 21.2N 86.3W
A98E 18.5N 82.6W 19.0N 83.0W 19.7N 83.9W 20.4N 84.9W
LBAR 18.5N 82.6W 19.1N 83.6W 20.2N 84.9W 21.5N 86.6W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 1200 051003 1200 051004 1200 051005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 87.6W 23.0N 89.9W 23.4N 91.9W 23.2N 93.5W
BAMM 22.2N 87.7W 23.9N 90.1W 24.8N 92.5W 25.3N 94.4W
A98E 21.0N 86.1W 20.9N 88.3W 20.5N 90.6W 19.3N 92.6W
LBAR 22.9N 88.3W 25.1N 90.8W 25.7N 93.4W 26.0N 95.5W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 72KTS
DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 82.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 82.3W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 81.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



It's almost stationary.

[weunice]

Actually, I think we've lost four planes over the years. Three of them were from Typhoons.

I have a book called Hurricane Watch by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams that has a chapter about recon which details all 4 flights and another that was fortunate not to end up that way. The last loss was in 1974. I'll quote the concluding sentence.

In the Pacific Basin, three flying accidents in typhoons have claimed twenty-five lives, none since 1974. In the Atlantic Basin, one accident in 1955 claimed eleven lives. This is a remarkably good record

To me the coolest thing I read last night was an account of the recon flight into Camille where they talked about the winds being so strong that the sea surface was "in deep furrows running along the wind direction". That was apparently the basis for saying it had 190 mph sustained winds. Has that effect been seen since?

The book is fairly interesting for a newbie like me ...

[boca]

Frank2 that's a great disscussion thanks for the info.