Upgraded to a hurricane.
WTPZ45 KNHC 300831
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
OTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER
...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE
HURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
Tropical Depression Otis Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
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Wow track goes to Arizona.
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cycloneye
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HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST... AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...SATELLITE AND LA PAZ RADAR INDICATE THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...20.8 N...110.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST... AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...SATELLITE AND LA PAZ RADAR INDICATE THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...20.8 N...110.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...21.1 N...110.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...21.1 N...110.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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WTPZ45 KNHC 301453
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE
STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB... 65 KT
FROM AFWA... AND AN AVERAGE ODT VALUE OF T4.5/77 KT OVER THE PAST
1.5 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. OTIS MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A
TEMPORARY MOTION AND WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE RE-ALIGNMENT OF THE MID-
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 30/0532Z TRMM OVERPASS
INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS TILTED ABOUT 20 NMI TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL EYE... BUT RADAR DATA AND A 30/1205Z AMSU
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW VERTICALLY
STACKED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
HANDLED. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET MODELS DROP THE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OTIS... WHICH RESULTS IN
THE HURRICANE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL... CANADIAN...
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF OTIS... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPORY IMAGERY AND
IN UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LOW
IS STRONGER... DIGGING SOUTHWARD... AND THAT MORE RIDGING IS
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALSO... 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED MORE THAN 40 METERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA. ALL OF THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS-NOGAPS-UKMET
SOLUTION... AND THAT 3-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 110.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
120HR VT 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W 30 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE
STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB... 65 KT
FROM AFWA... AND AN AVERAGE ODT VALUE OF T4.5/77 KT OVER THE PAST
1.5 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. OTIS MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A
TEMPORARY MOTION AND WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE RE-ALIGNMENT OF THE MID-
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 30/0532Z TRMM OVERPASS
INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS TILTED ABOUT 20 NMI TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL EYE... BUT RADAR DATA AND A 30/1205Z AMSU
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW VERTICALLY
STACKED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
HANDLED. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET MODELS DROP THE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OTIS... WHICH RESULTS IN
THE HURRICANE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL... CANADIAN...
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF OTIS... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPORY IMAGERY AND
IN UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LOW
IS STRONGER... DIGGING SOUTHWARD... AND THAT MORE RIDGING IS
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALSO... 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED MORE THAN 40 METERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA. ALL OF THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS-NOGAPS-UKMET
SOLUTION... AND THAT 3-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 110.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
120HR VT 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W 30 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ35 KNHC 301755
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED WIND OF
39 MPH...63 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR WERE REPORTED
AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA
LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.3 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR
WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS
ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.6 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR
WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS
ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.6 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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- Age: 69
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TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM
SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE
TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS
INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF
THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE
OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP
TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE
DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE.
THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY
LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W 70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA
72HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W 45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
120HR VT 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM
SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE
TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS
INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF
THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE
OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP
TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE
DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE.
THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY
LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W 70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA
72HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W 45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
120HR VT 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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WTPZ25 KNHC 010230
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.3W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
270
WTPZ35 KNHC 010230
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 50 MPH...81 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.3W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
270
WTPZ35 KNHC 010230
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
...OTIS SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 50 MPH...81 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Arizona is in the track.But Southern California not where rain is needed now.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ45 KNHC 010249
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE
EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90
KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS
INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
23N124W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING
THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL
GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO
THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND
GUNA.
OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW. BASED ON THIS...THE
GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT
24 HR. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS
COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE
EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90
KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS
INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
23N124W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING
THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL
GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO
THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND
GUNA.
OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW. BASED ON THIS...THE
GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT
24 HR. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS
COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
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cycloneye
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010840
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.
|
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND
WTPZ45 KNHC 010840
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.
|
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND
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cycloneye
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- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS CREEPING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM... WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS CREEPING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM... WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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011451
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W...INLAND OVER ARIZONA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER KNABB
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W...INLAND OVER ARIZONA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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