cmc model! Will something form east of the Bahamas?

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET 00Z run 120 HR.

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET vorticity

[CHRISTY]

interesting!!

[SouthFloridawx]

I know the accuweather forcast is blasphemy here but,

We continue to track a low pressure area near 11 north and 34 west. This feature is not moving very quickly and the upper-level winds over this feature will slowly become somewhat favorable for development in a day or two. A tropical wave along 63 west has a surface low associated with it, but an upper-level feature nearby is preventing this from developing. Some computer information shows this wave eventually moving northwest and away from this upper-level feature by the end of the weekend. This could place the wave in the northern Bahamas by Monday. Another low was located near 12 north and 51 west, drifting northwest. No development is expected with this system Friday.

[mvtrucking]

I know the accuweather forcast is blasphemy here but,

We continue to track a low pressure area near 11 north and 34 west. This feature is not moving very quickly and the upper-level winds over this feature will slowly become somewhat favorable for development in a day or two. A tropical wave along 63 west has a surface low associated with it, but an upper-level feature nearby is preventing this from developing. Some computer information shows this wave eventually moving northwest and away from this upper-level feature by the end of the weekend. This could place the wave in the northern Bahamas by Monday. Another low was located near 12 north and 51 west, drifting northwest. No development is expected with this system Friday.

Lets hope it goes poof

[SouthFloridawx]

from jb's free column today!!!

means we should look for the ridge to be in tact off the south Atlantic coast through next weekend. But being in tact there is not the same as what it will look like this weekend and the first part of next week. It will be as strong and as far north as we have seen it all summer, the classic pre-East Coast hurricane Newfoundland wheel develops, something that doesn't always mean there has to be a hurricane on the East Coast, but something that is usually there beforehand. The cold shot moderates, the ridge builds with monster high pressure over northwest Atlantic and the storm either arrives or develops underneath. Examples on the Tropical Outlook this morning included Carol, Donna, Gloria and Floyd as to how the surface map looked. And lo and behold, at 20 north and 60 west, the middle to upper disturbance that is entraining the tropical wave for this has now started to show a spin. I expect this system to progress into the southeastern U.S. coastal waters by Wednesday, with a beach erosion/title flooding situation at the very least, and at the worst, a hurricane threatening landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

from jb's free column today!!!

means we should look for the ridge to be in tact off the south Atlantic coast through next weekend. But being in tact there is not the same as what it will look like this weekend and the first part of next week. It will be as strong and as far north as we have seen it all summer, the classic pre-East Coast hurricane Newfoundland wheel develops, something that doesn't always mean there has to be a hurricane on the East Coast, but something that is usually there beforehand. The cold shot moderates, the ridge builds with monster high pressure over northwest Atlantic and the storm either arrives or develops underneath. Examples on the Tropical Outlook this morning included Carol, Donna, Gloria and Floyd as to how the surface map looked. And lo and behold, at 20 north and 60 west, the middle to upper disturbance that is entraining the tropical wave for this has now started to show a spin. I expect this system to progress into the southeastern U.S. coastal waters by Wednesday, with a beach erosion/title flooding situation at the very least, and at the worst, a hurricane threatening landfall.

I think were all Ignoring you man and we sould not be...There is to much model consensus here and remember CMC was the 1st to catch Katrina Bomb..

[CHRISTY]

local mets here in miami keep talking about something developing and heading towards florida they said models are showing that if anyone has more info post it thanks.

[SamSagnella]

I think were all Ignoring you man and we sould not be...There is to much model consensus here and remember CMC was the 1st to catch Katrina Bomb..

Let's not forget that the CMC also bombed out Philippe and we know what happened there...

[cjrciadt]

I think were all Ignoring you man and we sould not be...There is to much model consensus here and remember CMC was the 1st to catch Katrina Bomb..

Let's not forget that the CMC also bombed out Philippe and we know what happened there...

It had the monster cane on the wrong side of FL and the wrong name, but that was it. Anyway another system from the E. is possible, though I hope the models are wrong.

[SouthFloridawx]

from jb's free column today!!!

means we should look for the ridge to be in tact off the south Atlantic coast through next weekend. But being in tact there is not the same as what it will look like this weekend and the first part of next week. It will be as strong and as far north as we have seen it all summer, the classic pre-East Coast hurricane Newfoundland wheel develops, something that doesn't always mean there has to be a hurricane on the East Coast, but something that is usually there beforehand. The cold shot moderates, the ridge builds with monster high pressure over northwest Atlantic and the storm either arrives or develops underneath. Examples on the Tropical Outlook this morning included Carol, Donna, Gloria and Floyd as to how the surface map looked. And lo and behold, at 20 north and 60 west, the middle to upper disturbance that is entraining the tropical wave for this has now started to show a spin. I expect this system to progress into the southeastern U.S. coastal waters by Wednesday, with a beach erosion/title flooding situation at the very least, and at the worst, a hurricane threatening landfall.

I think were all Ignoring you man and we sould not be...There is to much model consensus here and remember CMC was the 1st to catch Katrina Bomb..

At no point did I say that I thought something would develope and head to florida. I merely pointed out something that I noticed on the UKMET and some of the other models were agreeing. Today I am still seeing this in some of the models and JB is talking about possible development. I am not saying a major hurricane to the east coast... as I do not have to proper backround to do so. Either way I believe that it bears watching in the near future.

[DESTRUCTION5]

LMAO

[SouthFloridawx]

from jb's free column today!!!

means we should look for the ridge to be in tact off the south Atlantic coast through next weekend. But being in tact there is not the same as what it will look like this weekend and the first part of next week. It will be as strong and as far north as we have seen it all summer, the classic pre-East Coast hurricane Newfoundland wheel develops, something that doesn't always mean there has to be a hurricane on the East Coast, but something that is usually there beforehand. The cold shot moderates, the ridge builds with monster high pressure over northwest Atlantic and the storm either arrives or develops underneath. Examples on the Tropical Outlook this morning included Carol, Donna, Gloria and Floyd as to how the surface map looked. And lo and behold, at 20 north and 60 west, the middle to upper disturbance that is entraining the tropical wave for this has now started to show a spin. I expect this system to progress into the southeastern U.S. coastal waters by Wednesday, with a beach erosion/title flooding situation at the very least, and at the worst, a hurricane threatening landfall.

I think were all Ignoring you man and we sould not be...There is to much model consensus here and remember CMC was the 1st to catch Katrina Bomb..

btw THANKS!

[gatorcane]

[SamSagnella]

from jb's free column today!!!
And lo and behold, at 20 north and 60 west, the middle to upper disturbance that is entraining the tropical wave for this has now started to show a spin. I expect this system to progress into the southeastern U.S. coastal waters by Wednesday, with a beach erosion/title flooding situation at the very least, and at the worst, a hurricane threatening landfall.

does JB really not know the difference between tidal and title? I mean, cmon...

[MiamiensisWx]

The system has some rather hostile conditions ahead of it (e.g., shear).

[Blown Away]

JB makes a good point, but I'll wait for Howie Long's and Terry Bradshaw's opinion before I get nervous!!

Sorry I couldn't help it, some of us never grow up!

[WeatherEmperor]

One of these CBS4 news local mets here in south florida says that some models bring an area of increased moisture in our general direction earlier next week. Im not sure if this is the same thing mentioned here but that could be it. She didnt say it would be a developed tropical system, just an area of increased moisture.

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

to clear it up....